563
FXUS61 KBUF 160921
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
521 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose southward across
our region through tonight. While this will support mainly fair dry
weather over our region, a few showers will still be possible well
south and east of Rochester, especially east of Lake Ontario. A
poorly organized frontal boundary will then promote some shower
activity Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures
and relatively humid conditions can be expected into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Broad mid level trough has shifted to our southeast and closed off
just south of Long Island with the spin aloft easily identified on
IR satellite early this morning. Our area will remain rain free into
the start of today, however areas of patchy dense fog will continue
to cause areas of reduced visibility across portions western and
northcentral NY lasting into the morning commute for which a SPS has
been issued.

A weak area of surface high pressure will try to nose in from the
northwest, while aloft a mid level ridge builds over western NY
through the day. This will bring mainly dry weather to the region,
although there may be a few showers across the far interior western
Southern Tier/Finger Lakes, and particularly east of Lake Ontario,
especially from around midday into the afternoon hours when enough
diurnal instability may develop between the weak ridging aloft over
western NY and the weak closed low just south of New England.
Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs mainly in the low
to mid 70s, with some upper 60s across the higher terrain, even
cooler along the lakeshores where an onshore flow is present. High
pressure takes hold surface and aloft tonight which will provide dry
and quiet weather with lows mainly in the low and mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough cutting through the upper Great Lakes will bring
with it showers and some thunderstorms Friday through Friday night.
At this point...instability is still looking fairly limited Friday
afternoon with advertised MUCAPE ranging between 300-700 J/kg and
only modest 0-6km bulk shear values. That said...it is still
possible that we could see a few stronger storms, especially on any
subtle boundaries. Otherwise...it will be mild with temperatures
generally found in the 70s, cooler near the lake shores.

The front will slowly eases across the eastern Great Lakes Friday
night, with showers gradually diminishing from west to east. There
may still be some lingering showers east of Lake Ontario early
Saturday morning. A shortwave passing to our south in concert with
diurnal heating may allow for a few showers to fire up again in the
afternoon. This will especially be the case along any lake breeze
boundary. Overall...it should be a fairly nice day with highs in the
upper 60s to low-mid 70s.

High pressure takes over Saturday night providing generally quite
weather through the remainder of the this period. However...there
still will be a slight chance (20% or less) of a shower across the
Southern Tier Sunday afternoon. This is due to the influence of a
passing shortwave to our south. Highs on Sunday will be mild with
temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will provide dry weather through at least
Tuesday. After that...chances for showers and storms increase as
a shortwave trough nears the region by mid-week.

Temperatures will also steadily increase to above normal ahead of
this trough through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
It took most of the night, however LIFR/VLIFR conditions have now
spread across portions of the eastern Lake Ontario region (KART).
Otherwise the moist cool northeasterly flow off Lake Ontario will
continue to produce low stratus and fog across just about all areas
from the Finger Lakes westward with widespread IFR/LIFR/VLIFR
conditions across the TAF sites south of Lake Ontario. These
conditions will likely persist until within an hour or two after
sunrise, before slow improvement begins.

Heading into today, conditions will only slowly improve through the
morning hours. High pressure and drier air will finally start work
in through the second half of the day, and in tandem with strong
daytime heating start to erode stubborn low level moisture with
conditions improving to VFR from west to east through the afternoon.
Mainly VFR flight conditions will then persist into the evening and
overnight, although some valley fog may develop later tonight with
localized IFR possible (KJHW).

Outlook...

Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely late.
Saturday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light winds will continue through the remainder of the
work week. Light winds will return today as weak high pressure
builds over the eastern Great Lakes. A mainly offshore flow will
then develop tonight and Friday with gentle to moderate
southeasterly breezes in advance of the next system approaching from
the west.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM