204
FXUS64 KEWX 141721
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1221 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper level trough is moving across TX this morning and the flow
is becoming west-northwesterly. At the surface, high pressure is
moving over the region and winds are light and variable. A cooler,
drier airmass has moved over our CWA. Temperatures and dewpoints are
five to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Some patchy fog has
developed over the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor. The patchy fog
will spread across more of the area before sunrise and then burn off
quickly. High pressure will move across our CWA today with quiet
weather expected. Skies will be mostly sunny and temperatures will
warm. Highs will range from the upper 90s over the Rio Grande Plains
to the upper 80s over the eastern zones. Tonight winds will turn
back to the south or southeast and increase in speed. Temperatures
will be warmer again with lows about five degrees warmer than this
morning. Southeasterly flow will continue Wednesday. High
temperatures will be about the same as today. A dryline will move
toward our northwestern area and may generate showers and
thunderstorms near the Big Bend region. Some of these storms could
move into Val Verde County Wednesday afternoon, but chances are low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A trough will be located over the northern Baja Peninsula Wednesday
night, expected to progress east towards the Plains through late
week. An impulse ahead of this system will bring precipitation
chances in the west as early as Wednesday night, although the better
precipitation chances arrive on Thursday. The best chances for
showers and thunderstorms this day resides over the eastern two
thirds of the area. High PWATS from 1.5 to over 2 inches will bring
the potential for heavy rain, especially over the far northeastern
portion of the CWA. WPC highlights a level 2 of 4 risk for excessive
rainfall for this area. Ample low level moisture and high CAPE
values are expected by the afternoon. Any thunderstorms that develop
will be capable of producing large to very large hail this day and a
level 2 of 5 for severe weather has been introduced by SPC over
portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains.

Some precipitation may linger into Friday as the trough moves across
the Central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley, although
chances are lesser this day. Dry weather, clear skies, and warm to
hot temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week.
Widespread highs in the 90s and or low triple digits are expected
Sunday into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR flight conditions prevail through the period. Some high clouds
return and increase overnight into Wednesday across the area. Winds
will trend mainly light and variable at times from this afternoon
into tonight. KDRT will be the exception with moderate speeds from
the east-southeast. The winds turn and increase from out of the
southeast to east-southeast for each TAF site entering Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  91  69  83 /   0   0  10  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  91  68  83 /   0   0  10  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     64  92  70  86 /   0   0  10  60
Burnet Muni Airport            65  89  68  80 /   0   0  10  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  99  76  98 /   0  10  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  89  67  80 /   0   0  10  80
Hondo Muni Airport             65  93  71  88 /   0   0  10  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        63  91  68  84 /   0   0  10  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   63  90  69  84 /   0   0  10  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       66  92  71  86 /   0   0  10  50
Stinson Muni Airport           66  93  72  87 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...27
Aviation...Brady