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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281203
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
603 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog expected this morning.

- Patchy frost possible in northeast zones around sunrise
  Monday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 601 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Update issued to remove mention of thunder for this morning and
to add in drizzle/shower mix as more obs reporting light drizzle
under this veil of low cloud. The upper low has become more
elongated up into South Dakota. Wrap-around expected to
decrease and finish up around 18z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 257 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Across the Tri State region this morning, skies are cloudy with a
few light showers occurring north of I-70. Some patchy fog is
showing up over portions of northeast Colorado as well. Temperatures
as of 200 AM MDT are ranging mainly in the 40s, with portions of
northwest Yuma county in the upper 30s. Winds are north-
northwesterly and are mainly 10 mph or less west of Highway 25 due
to high pressure nosing off the north central Rockies. East of
Highway 25, gusts up to 15-20 mph are occurring at times due to
eastern zones proximity to the exiting surface low gradient over
central Kansas.

Weather concerns in the short term period will focus on some patchy
fog this morning in the west, chances for precipitation today, and
some patchy frost in the northeast towards sunrise Monday morning.

The latest RAP40 500mb analysis and mid level water vapor imagery
are showing a slow moving low lifting slowly through the Tri State
area into western Nebraska. This system continues to be blocked by
strong ridging over the eastern portion of the country.

At the surface, the low that brought the strong to severe storms
yesterday is currently over central/eastern portions of Kansas, with
a ridge nosing south from the Nebraska panhandle into northeast
Colorado. A wide swath of low level stratus is blanketing the area
and will persist through the day, clearing late from south to north.

For rain/thunder chances, looking for mainly showers to impact the
CWA through the daytime hours. These will be focused on the exiting
upper low and the wrap-around moisture associated with it. Very
limited instability will only give a chance for thunder through the
mid morning, before just rain expected. Increased chances 20-40%
favor locales north of the Interstate to see any remaining showers
before they taper by sunset. CAMs(HRRR, RAP, NamNest) all show
limited coverage as the day progresses.

For fog chances, current visibility guidance is mixed but will be
focused on where the nose of the ridge axis coming into northeast
Colorado sets up/meanders through the mid morning hours. Already,
obs in northeast Colorado are ranging from 3-6sm at times. For now
thinking patchy fog will dominate, but if the ridge axis pushes any
further east, then areas of fog could develop(1sm visby or less).
For now have a mention for only areas along/west of Highway 27.

The surface ridge will transition through the CWA overnight.
Looking for temps by 12z Monday to range in the mid/upper 30s
for northeast zones. Have a mention of patchy frost for Norton,
Decatur and Red Willow counties.

On Monday, zonal flow aloft combined with an increasing southerly
downslope flow will provide above normal temps and dry conditions.
Lee-side troughing late Monday into Tuesday will work into western
kansas as a front. Above normal temps continue through the day with
dry conditions, but a shortwave Tuesday night will work over the
area providing the chance for rw/trw mainly Hwy 36 and north by
Tuesday night.

For temps, highs for the area today will be below normal in the mid
50s to lower 60s. Going into Monday, above normal warmth returns
with a range in the mid to upper 70s. For tuesday, slightly warmer
with a range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s in spots. Most of the
higher temps expected will be across locales along/south of Highway
40.

Overnight lows tonight will range in the mid to upper 30s, warmest
along/south of I-70. For Monday night, warmer with a range from the
lower to mid 40s west of Highway 25. Along/east of Highway 25, upper
40s to lower 50s expected. And for Tuesday night, a range from the
lower to mid 40s west of Highway 25, to mid and upper 40s east.
Western portions of Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in
Colorado could see some upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A mid-week upper low within a positively tilted trough will dig
south-southeast into Utah/Colorado, allowing flow aloft to back out
of the southwest as we head into Wednesday. As the trough/low
pressure system progress eastward, a front sweeps through the area
late Wednesday into early Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures and
shower/storm chances to the area. Thunderstorms will be possible off
and on throughout the period; details at this range leave some
uncertainty in severe storm potential, but based off latest
ensembles/guidance, a return of active weather is possible,
especially Wednesday afternoon-evening - will continue to monitor.

Regarding temperatures, Wednesday is anticipated to continue above
normal with highs from upper 60s northwest to mid 80s across
southern  portions and lows from the upper 30s to near 50.
Temperatures then slightly below normal are forecast for Thursday,
with highs in the mid-upper 50s to mid-upper 60s and overnight lows
in the 30s to low 40s. Temperatures warm again to near normal by
Friday and above normal Saturday, Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 422 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

For KGLD, looking for IFR/LIFR ceilings around OVC005 through
15z, then MVFR conditions. By 00z Monday, VFR. Patchy fog will
impact the terminal through 15z with a 2-6sm range. Winds,
northwest 10-20kts through 08z Monday, then southwest around
10kts.

For KMCK, looking for mainly MVFR skies through 01z Monday,
then VFR skies. From 12z-16z, 2-6sm in patchy fog with ceilings
IFR. Winds, northwest around 10-15kts through 06z Monday, then
west 5-10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JN