014
FXUS62 KILM 111852
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
252 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will move offshore tonight, keeping the region
cool and dry through Monday. Rain chances increase Tuesday and
Tuesday night and remain elevated Wednesday and Thursday as
several systems move across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry and cool this afternoon with shallow cumulus dissipating around
sunset. Shortwave and associated dry cold front will approach the
area overnight. Cloud cover in the form of a mid level deck will
limit falling temperatures for a brief period around midnight. Weak
cold air advection behind the front should allow for overnight lows
to drop again, prior to sunrise. Given the combination of clouds and
advection, low temperatures tonight carry some uncertainty, but
expecting most areas near the mid 50s.

High pressure settles into the region tomorrow with mostly clear
skies. A few shallow cumulus may develop near the coast. Forecast
highs are a degree or two above guidance given near max sun angles
and weak to no advection. Highs in the low 80s to near 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high moves overhead Sun night then shifts offshore on Mon,
pushed east by shortwave 5h ridge axis crossing the forecast area.
Weak subsidence and mid-level dry air will keep rain out of the
forecast through Mon evening, but aloft and at the surface moisture
will start to increase ahead of the next system. Moisture around
300mb Mon morning will gradually lower during the day resulting in
high cloud gradually thickening. Low level return flow, in the wake
of the departing surface high, leads to increasing boundary layer
moisture Mon afternoon and evening. Moisture continues to increase
Mon night with the column becoming nearly saturated during the early
morning hours Tue. Rain will spread from southwest to northeast as
the first of several shortwaves approach. Lapse rates remain on the
weak side given marginal height falls and lightning potential is
very limited, mainly to offshore areas. Radiational cooling will
drop temperatures below climo Sun night. Temperatures back near
climo Mon and then above climo Tue night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Very moist airmass in place Tue with deep southerly flow pushing
precipitable water close to 2". All the ingredients are in place for
a very wet day, although strong/severe potential is much less
certain. Not a lot in the way of parameters favorable for severe
weather, but it is something to watch. Warm front lifts north late
Tue, but dry slot arrives around the same time, limiting rain
chances in the evening and bringing an end to rain Tue night.
Expected diurnal convection Wed afternoon/evening as the cold pool
aloft swings through. Drier air and subsidence in the wake of the 5h
trough arrives Wed night and lingers into Fri before another
southern stream system brings increased rain chances late next week.
Low temperatures will remain above climo through the end of next
week. Clouds and rain will keep highs below climo Tue with highs
near to slightly above climo Wed-Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. Shallow cumulus this afternoon will dissipate before a mid
level CIG develops this evening with a passing shortwave to the
north. Light NW winds for most areas today outside of a light
sea breeze working its way into the Grand Strand. Winds will
become light and variable overnight as high pressure settles
overhead.

Extended Outlook... Widespread VFR through Monday. Flight
restrictions may occur Monday night into Tuesday with the next
weather system moving in. Improving conditions into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday:
Light winds this evening will increase ahead of a dry cold
front. SW winds up to 15 knots are expected overnight with the
cold front pushing offshore early Sunday morning. A few showers
are possible beyond the 0-20 nm nearshore waters. Light winds
expected on Sunday as high pressure settles near the region.

Sunday night through Thursday:
Light southerly winds Sun night through Mon night ramp up Tue
ahead of low pressure passing to the northwest Tue night. The
low drags a cold front across the waters later Wed with a
secondary front reinforcing offshore flow on Thu. Highest speeds
will be Tue and Tue night with solid 20 kt and higher gusts
possible. Prolonged southerly flow combined with increased wind
speeds will quickly build seas from 2-3 ft early next week to
over 6 ft on Tue with seas over 6 ft continuing into Wed. Once
offshore flow develops later Wed seas drop under 6 ft. A
southerly wind wave will be dominant while a weak southeast
swell will also be present.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM EDT
     Sunday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...21
MARINE...III/21