482
FXUS65 KLKN 010944
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
244 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler and dry conditions with breezy afternoon winds
from the northwest are expected today. A weak upper-level
disturbance will bring a few rain and higher elevation snow
showers to northern Nevada along with gusty west winds across
central Nevada Thursday. Dry and warmer for Friday before a robust
low pressure system brings active weather and much cooler
temperatures into the region over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night

Breezy afternoon winds from the west northwest along with partly
cloudy skies are expected today. In addition, considerably cooler
temperatures behind a cold front will be in place across central
and northern NEvada today with highs only ranging from the 40s
across far northeastern Nevada to the 50s along and north of
US-50. Lows tonight will again be in the 20s and 30s across much
of eastern Nevada.

An upper-level wave along with mid and upper-level Pacific
moisture will will bring a few showers to northern Nevada
Thursday. Probabilities of a wetting rain, 0.10" or greater, are
highest across the northern Elko county mountains, approaching
50%. Winds will be elevated Thursday as well from the west-
northwest. Temperatures will be on the rebound with most valleys
reaching the 60s. A few 20s are possible across northeastern
NEvada THursday night but a building ridge to the west will
promote lows only in the 30s across much of west central and
central Nevada.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday

Friday, weak ridging will occupy the area over Nevada. Highs are
forecasted in the mid to upper 60s with light and variable winds
and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s
to  lower 40s.

Saturday, an offshore low, off the coast of Oregon and
California, will begin to encroach into the area. Winds will
slowly veer out of the south by the afternoon. Theses southerly
winds are expected to be breezy to gusty, and strongest across
central Nevada. Ensembles indicate a 75-80% probability of seeing
sustained winds of at least 30 mph at the cities of Eureka, Ely,
and Tonopah, while the same speed at Elko has a 42% chance of
occurrence during the afternoon. Winds will likely gust to at
least 45 mph in these locations as well, with the cities of
Eureka, Ely, and Tonopah having a 80-90% chance of meeting or
exceeding gusts of 45 mph, and the cities of Winnemucca and Elko
having a 40-55% chance of doing so. With the elevated winds,
blowing dust is possible and has been introduced into the grids
across central Nevada, out ahead of the incoming precip shield.
Scattered to Numerous showers are expected to start across
Humboldt county early Saturday morning before propagating across
Elko, and northern portions of Lander and Eureka counties by the
afternoon hours. Patchy blowing dust would have the greatest
chance across Southern Lander, Eureka, White Pine and Northern Nye
counties by the afternoon. In general a tenth to a quarter of an
inch of rainfall is forecasted across Humboldt, Elko, and
Northern Lander/Northern Eureka, with locally higher amounts
possible. Highs temperatures get a boost from the strong
southerly winds advecting warm air into the area. Highs will range
from the low to mid 70s in many areas, with lows in the mid to
upper 30s.

Sunday, the center of the low moves over the state, ushering in
colder air. In fact, High temperatures are expected be a good 20
degrees colder, ranging in the low to mid 50s. Snow levels quickly
drop and by late morning, where levels will have fallen to 4900 to
5900 feet across most of the area. As a result, Rain showers will
gradually transition to snow showers throughout the morning and
afternoon. Lowest valleys may remain as rain, where mid-range
valleys could see a few tenths of snow by days end. Higher passes
and summits across the US-50 corridor could see an inch or so.
Higher mountains such as the Rubies, and Jarbidge Wilderness
area, may see some measurable snows if the forecast holds. Winds
will be breezy out of the west throughout the day but should be
weaker than Saturdays winds. Lows Sunday night are forecasted to
range in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Monday through Wednesday a series of shortwave troughs cycle
through Northern Nevada each day. Winds can be expected to be out
of the west to northwest each day with breezy conditions. piddly
rain and show showers are possible each day across northern
Nevada, with Monday being the most substantial of the three. Some
instability left behind by the previously departing trough
provides and environment favorable for some isolated
thunderstorms. Highs will generally be in the upper 50s to lower
60s each day with lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...Dry with VFR conditions over the next 24 hour period
at all terminals. Gusty northwesterly winds of 10-15 knots gusting
15-25 knots will impact all terminals today, with the highest
winds during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams,
creeks, and rivers throughout northern and central Nevada due to
continued snow melt. Colder temperatures, mostly in the 20s, are
expected tonight with high probabilities of near 100% of falling
to or below freezing which will inhibit rapid snow melt. Dry
conditions are expected across northern Nevada today. A weather
disturbance will bring a few showers to northeastern Nevada
Thursday but will only a few hundredths of an inch is expected
across the Jarbidge area.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in minor flood
stage and is forecast remain in minor flood stage for the next
several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus continues to slowly rise and is now in
minor flood stage and is expected to remain within minor flood
stage.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and
is forecast to gradually fall over the next several days, but
remain in action stage.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City has fallen below minor flood
stage and is expected to gradually fall further through this
week, but remain in action stage.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93/91/96