Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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341 FXUS64 KMEG 110912 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 412 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 A beautiful weekend is on tap with dry weather and mild temperatures today followed by another cool night. Expect increasing clouds on Sunday with highs in the lower 80s. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Clear and cool night is underway across the Mid-South with temps in the 50s and light winds. Some patchy fog is occurring around Memphis. Another nice day is on tap for the Mid-South. A mid- level trough moving through the Great Lakes will send a reinforcing cold front across the region today. This feature will have little impact other than to shift winds back around to the NW and increase them to 10 mph or so. A couple of CAMs develop an isolated shower near the TN/MS border this afternoon but given the very dry airmass in place this seems unlikely. Highs will climb to around 80. Another cool night is expected with lows mainly in the 50s by Sunday morning with some lower 50s along the TN River. Sunday will start off sunny but clouds will start to stream in from the approaching system. Winds will turn southerly by Sunday afternoon and dewpoints will start to climb a bit with highs in the lower 80s. An upper low that will be located over the Four Corners region this weekend will push into the Southern Plains on Monday with numerous to widespread, initially elevated, showers and scattered thunderstorms spreading into the Mid-South. The associated cold front will push across Arkansas late Monday afternoon and evening and interact with an increasingly moist and unstable airmass which may trigger a few strong to severe thunderstorms over areas SW of a JBR-MEM-TUP line. Convective redevelopment could occur Tuesday afternoon, with a few strong to severe storms east of the MS River, before the front exits into Middle TN and northern AL. We get a break on Wednesday as shortwave upper ridging builds over the area with dry weather and temps in the upper 70s to around 80. The next upper trough pushes into the region by the end of the week with more chances for showers and thunderstorms. The general idea is that the trough pushes east of the region by the weekend but 00z models are not in great agreement long term. Ensemble forecasts are holding on to at least small chances for rain through the weekend though uncertainty is high. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A persistence forecast over the next 30 hours, as VFR continues. Northwest winds will increase behind a surface pressure trough passage in the early morning. The dry boundary layer will then decouple Saturday evening. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...PWB