981
FXUS64 KMEG 151725
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1225 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Most of the Midsouth will be dry today. The exception is in west
Tennessee near the Tennessee River where a few showers and
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Rain and thunderstorms return
to all of the Midsouth late Thursday and will continue Friday and
likely Saturday. Sunday and Monday look dry. Temperatures will be
near to slightly above normal today and tomorrow with slightly
below normal readings Friday into Saturday. We will trend warmer
Sunday into early next week with readings near 90 degrees possible
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

An upper low and weak surface low over southern Illinois and
Indiana are slowly moving off to the east resulting in less
influence on the Midsouth. However, a few more showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible near the Tennessee today before
the lows move into east Kentucky.

A shortwave ridge will build in behind the aforementioned lows on
Thursday resulting in dry and warm conditions across most of the
Midsouth. A few showers and thunderstorms may return to northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel late tomorrow (Thursday)
afternoon as a weak shortwave trough tries to impede on the west
side of the shortwave ridge. Highs Thursday should be in the
middle 80s. Meanwhile, Thursday a deep trough will dig over the
Four-Corners Area setting up southwest flow across much of the
Mississippi River Valley Thursday night into Friday. A cold front
will usher in rain, thunderstorms and a slightly cooler airmass
Friday. Expect highs in the middle 70s to low 80s Friday and
Saturday.

After Friday there are significant differences in models
guidance. The GFS features another upper level low/surface low
much like we have been dealing with the past couple of days. The
ECMWF is faster with no significant surface or upper low features.
As a result, Saturday`s forecast is uncertain. If the GFS is
right, Saturday will feature rain and thunderstorms while the
ECMWF is much drier. For now, we will just maintain chance to
slight chance PoPs, highest near the Tennessee River. Widespread
severe storms do not look likely, but the Storm Prediction Center
does include most of the Midsouth in a Marginal risk on Friday.

NBM probabilistic QPF guidance shows about a 20-25% chance of 1
inch or greater rainfall across most of West Tennessee, east
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel today through Friday with about
a 30-40% chance across north Mississippi.

Expect a warming trend Sunday into next week. High temperatures
Monday and Tuesday may approach 90 degrees across a large portion
of the Midsouth. Tupelo, MS reached 90 degrees May 9th of this
year, but the last time multiple climate sites in the Midsouth
(Tupelo, MS, NWS Memphis, Memphis International, Jackson, TN and
Jonesboro, AR) reached 90 degrees was around October 3rd of 2023.
It`s been a good run, but it will likely end soon as we move into
the 2nd half of May. NBM`s probabilistic max temperature guidance
on Monday ranges from a highest reasonable temperature of 94
degrees to a lowest reasonable temperature of 84. We currently
have 89 in the official forecast. Mostly dry conditions are
expected Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR CIGs will prevail through the period as shortwave ridging
continues to build over the Mid-South. Shortly after sunset, winds
are expected to go calm and/or variable at all sites. This,
combined with mostly clear skies, will encourage fog development
at MKL and TUP by 09Z. Vsbys should quickly improve after sunrise
Thursday.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ANS