760
FXUS62 KMFL 132313
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
713 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Despite steep mid-lvl lapse rates and abundant low-lvl moisture,
the proximity of the mid-lvl ridge and associated subsidence
inversion and mid-lvl dry air have mostly kept convection in
check over SFL this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated
storms have formed along the Gulf breeze this afternoon and
should generally track towards the vicinity of the Lake over the
next couple of hours (before instability wanes), but suspect the
trend of the stronger activity remaining to our north will
continue. Breezy SErly flow overnight will keep lows well above
normal, with most of the east coast remaining at 80 or above,
while even the Interior and SWFL will remain in the mid to upper
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

High pressure over the Lake Okeechobee this afternoon will move
slowly southward through South Florida tonight into Tuesday, as
the MCS continues to move eastward from the Southeastern United
States into the Western Atlantic waters. At the same time, a mid
to upper level low will be developing over the Southeastern United
States.

This weather pattern will allow for the winds over South Florida
to become more southerly tonight into Tuesday while the 725-750 mb
cap remains in place. Therefore, most areas will remain dry through
Tuesday, but could still see a few showers or thunderstorms over
the Lake okeechobee region into the NE Portions of Palm Beach
County this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon due to the
collision of the sea breezes and lake breeze.

One of two storms could also become strong especially where the
sea breezes and lake breeze collide due to the 500 mb temps being
in the -8 to -9C. The primary impacts from the strong storms will
be gusty winds, hail, and lightning strikes.

The other major story is the heat over South Florida. Lows tonight
will only be able to fall down into the 70s over the interior
areas to around 80 over the metro areas. However, the heat index
readings over the east coast metro areas will only get down into
the mid to upper 80s overnight, due to the increase in humidity.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 90s over the metro
areas to around 100 over the interior areas. With higher humidity,
the heat indices will be in the 105 to 108 range over most areas,
except 100 to 105 range over the east coast metro areas. If these
forecast heat indices continue in later forecast runs, then a heat
advisory may be needed for portions of South Florida for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A mid-level low will become cut off from the mean flow aloft mid to
late week as it moves from the Mississippi River valley across the
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. The associated surface cold
front will pinch the high pressure over much of the peninsula of
Florida south and east by late week. The frontal boundary could
enter south central Florida Wednesday into Thursday, briefly
allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the weak front
lacks the support for more widespread activity which could
provide more substantial relief from the heat. Temperatures aloft
will cool to around -9 to -10C on Wednesday and Thursday which
could support an isolated strong storm or two.

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential
for hazardous heat which will begin on Wednesday and linger into
the weekend. Most of South Florida could experience heat
necessitating at least a Heat Advisory on Wednesday through
Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the week.
Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area-
wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for
coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially
approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures
along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall
below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not
fall below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several
days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of
relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic
off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward
advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move
into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat.
If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could
linger through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period,
although some MVFR cigs will be possible this evening over the
northern east coast terminals. SErly winds will remain around
10kts overnight with gusts 20-25kts expected once again during the
day on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The winds will swing from a southeast direction this afternoon to
more of a south southwest direction Tuesday into the upcoming
weekend. Wind speeds will be 10 to 15 knots over most South
Florida waters, except for the Atlantic waters where they will be
15 to 25 knots tonight into Tuesday.

The Gulf seas will be 1 to 3 feet tonight through rest of this
week. The Atlantic seas will be 2 to 5 feet tonight into Tuesday
before decreasing to 1 to 3 feet for the middle to end of this
week. Therefore, an SCA will remain in place over the Atlantic
waters tonight into Tuesday

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The southeast to south winds will allow for the continue threat of
Rip Currents through tonight along the east coast beaches of South
Florida. The winds will become more south southwest on Tuesday,
but due to the low time in the morning and the last several days
of the persistent southeast winds, the threat of rip currents
should continue into Tuesday. Therefore, The High Risk of Rip
Currents along the east coast beaches of South Florida will
continue through Tuesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  93  80  96 /  10  10  10  30
West Kendall     80  95  77  97 /   0  10  10  20
Opa-Locka        80  94  79  97 /  10  10  10  30
Homestead        81  91  79  95 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  82  91  79  95 /  20  10  10  40
N Ft Lauderdale  81  94  79  96 /  20  20  10  40
Pembroke Pines   81  94  79  99 /  20  10  10  30
West Palm Beach  79  94  77  96 /  30  30  10  50
Boca Raton       81  94  79  97 /  20  20  10  40
Naples           79  92  79  91 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...Carr