569
FXUS62 KMFL 161649
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1249 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The frontal boundary has stalled over Central Florida and is
expected to sit there before the mid-level trough departs out of the
area by tomorrow. The stationary front will allow tropical moisture
to pool over the region and keep dew points in the 70s. Combining
this with low level flow out of the SW will keep hot and muggy
conditions across all of South Florida and keep the environment
unstable. The latest 12Z sounding and aircraft soundings show
anywhere between ~3000-4000 J/kg of CAPE with PWATs just under 2
inches. With this profile, there will be potential for a few severe
thunderstorms again today for the east coast counties. The soundings
mainly show a large hail growth zone, which could produce hail of 1
inch or larger in some storms as well as severe wind gusts due to a
potential core collapsing. Even with some melting of hail below the
freezing level, it still possible for 1 inch hail with the
aforementioned sounding parameters. There currently is a marginal
risk for severe storms for all of Palm Beach and Broward counties
(including the lake) plus the northern half of Miami-Dade. However,
the highest threat for severe storms is expected for eastern Palm
Beach and Broward counties. This is a result of multiple factors
which include the strongest vorticity advection in the region
occurring there, proximity to the stationary front, and SW flow in
the low levels steering convection to those areas. Storms will be
monitored as they develop throughout the day.

Skies will clear out tonight under nocturnal cooling and as broad
ridging builds over the region. With winds becoming extremely light
and variable and lingering moisture keeping dew points in the mid
70s overnight, some patchy fog will be possible for inland areas and
extending to the west coast. For the day on Friday, the ridge will
help stabilize the local atmosphere and keep conditions drier, but
there will remain slight chances for a few showers and isolated
storms as sea and gulf breezes develop in the afternoon. Further
convection could occur from outflow boundaries and collisions
between outflows and the sea/gulf breezes.

Temperatures for today will peak in the low to mid 90s and then
increase into the mid to upper 90s for most locations on Friday.
Heat indices have the potential to rise into advisory criteria for
several counties on Friday, and if trends continue then a Heat
Advisory will be issued when deemed necessary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The main story through the weekend will be the potential for hazardous
heat as a hot and humid airmass remains over the area with south-
southwest low-level flow and troughing off to the north. Most of
South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat
Advisory on Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well. High
temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area-wide each
afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas
with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching
the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the
east coast metro could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even
portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s.
With the moist airmass in place, there will also be a threat for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over
the northern half of the area.

By late in the weekend into early next week, the mid-level troughing over
the Southeast US will begin to dip further south and stall out in
the area, finally sending a front through South Florida. Ahead of
and along the front, there will be chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with some strong storms possible. After the front
clears the area, a slightly cooler airmass will settle in through
mid-week and provide relief from the recent stretch of heat, with
high temperatures generally in the upper 80s to low 90s across the
area, and low temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Mainly VFR for the next 24 hours, but another round of showers and
storms in the area could create impacts this afternoon into the
evening. This threat appears to mainly be for KPBI but also for
KFLL/KFXE. The rest of the terminals have lower threats for direct
impacts by showers and storms, but it is not entirely ruled out at
least on a brief basis. Overall, MVFR or lower CIGs or
visibilities will be possible in storms today. TEMPOs are in
place for KPBI, KFLL and KFXE with these being of higher concern.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Mainly benign conditions over the next few days with light to
moderate west-southwest flow gradually turning southerly by this
weekend. There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could
create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

There will be a moderate risk for rip currents along the Gulf coast
today with onshore flow. Along the Atlantic, rip current risks will
be low over the next several days with generally light, offshore
flow.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  93  80  93 /  10  20   0  20
West Kendall     74  95  77  96 /  10  20   0  20
Opa-Locka        77  95  80  96 /  10  20   0  20
Homestead        76  93  80  93 /  10  20   0  20
Fort Lauderdale  77  92  80  92 /  10  30   0  20
N Ft Lauderdale  77  93  80  93 /  10  30   0  20
Pembroke Pines   78  96  80  96 /  10  30   0  20
West Palm Beach  74  93  77  93 /  30  30   0  30
Boca Raton       76  94  78  93 /  20  30   0  30
Naples           78  92  79  93 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Redman