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000
FXUS64 KTSA 251734
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms has decreased this
morning, at least for now. Meso analysis shows frontal zone
continues to very slowly lift northeast, but should remain a
presence across northwest AR into far northeast OK for much of
today as renewed precip across SW MO and SE KS likely reinforces
its postilion. There also remains some subtle shortwave energy
that could enhance renewed development north of the boundary into
this afternoon, though overall coverage should be less than what
was observed earlier this morning. Forecast update will reflect
slightly reduced POPs this morning outside of northwest AR and
northeast corner of OK. Temperatures in areas that remain north of
the boundary through the day may struggle to reach forecast
highs, but a late rally remains possible. Additional forecast
update will be out shortly.

12z data coning in so far does lend some increased confidence in a
potentially severe linear complex of storms impacting parts of
eastern OK, primarily after 09z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Scattered strong thunderstorms have develop early this morning
across portions of northeast Oklahoma.  Elevated instability around
1500 J/kg, coupled with deep layer at 40 knots, will support marginally
severe hail through the morning hours. Some potential for storms
to train over the same locations, so a few swaths of heavier rainfall
will be possible. Antecedent soil conditions are fairly dry given the
lack of rainfall over the past 2 weeks, so flooding initially will
not be a concern.

Initial upper level storm system will lift into the central Plains
tonight. Expect strong to severe storms to develop west of the area
this evening and begin to move into eastern Oklahoma late tonight.
Although surface based instability (1500 J/kg) will not maximized,
strong kinematics are forecast with 0-1 km shear in the 30-35 knots.
This environment will support a limited threat for a brief tornado
or two, but the main concern will likely be damaging wind gusts
in the stronger bow segments along with heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Severe threat will likely continue Friday morning as scattered
thunderstorms move across the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas in association with 90kt upper jet streak
lifting into area from the southwest. Still some uncertainty
regarding evolution of storms Friday afternoon. Depending on how
much heating occurs, could see an uptick in severe storms across
southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas Friday afternoon.
Although a very unstable air-mass will redevelop across eastern
Oklahoma behind the earlier convection, weak forcing along dry
line/Pacific front may not be sufficient for additional thunderstorm
development. Any severe threat will be highly conditional, but
with that said, the overall environment would be very favorable a
discrete supercell or two.

Should be a lull in the weather Friday night ahead of secondary
and more potent storm system Saturday. As upper low lifts into the
central Plains Saturday afternoon a very unstable air-mass is
expected to develop west of the area as dry line moves through
western Oklahoma. Although timing is always a little uncertain
this far in advance, including any inhibiting mesoscale features,
it appears likely that a higher end severe weather event will
occur with storms initially developing west of the area.

Main severe threat will again primarily occur Saturday night as a
broken line of severe storms move into northeast Oklahoma.
Environment will remain conducive for severe weather with moderate
surface based instability. Very strong wind fields, including the
potential for backed low level winds, may support a few tornadoes,
although damaging winds will again be the main threat.

Severe threat should transition to flooding concerns late Saturday
night into Sunday morning. PWATS in the 1.50-1.75 inch range will
produce torrential rain in the stronger storms, which will likely
cause localized flash flooding, especially in areas with earlier
rainfall.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the severe/heavy
rainfall threat will continue on Sunday across SE OK/NW AR as main
upper trough axis swings through during the day. Weak frontal
boundary will hopefully push south into the ArkLaTx by Monday
morning with thunderstorm chances ending, at least in the short
term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

MVFR conditions will linger into the early afternoon across far
northeast OK and northwest AR as showers and a few thunderstorms
persist along and north of a warm front. Expectation remains that
MVFR ceilings return this evening to remainder of the area, with
potentially strong LLWS developing. Consensus is for a strong
squall line to develop in northwest TX late this evening and
arrive in eastern OK sometime around 10-12z. This complex will
likely weaken to some degree with eastward progression, however
strong wind gusts remain possible into eastern OK sites early
Friday morning. IFR conditions likely with the passage of storms,
and MVFR should prevail through Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  64  81  67 /  50  90  70  10
FSM   71  63  77  68 /  60  50  90  50
MLC   79  66  79  67 /  20  80  90  30
BVO   71  60  82  63 /  70  90  70  10
FYV   67  58  73  63 /  80  50  90  50
BYV   62  55  74  64 /  80  50  90  50
MKO   72  62  77  66 /  30  80  90  20
MIO   65  59  76  65 /  80  80  90  20
F10   77  64  80  67 /  20  90  80  20
HHW   78  66  75  66 /  10  50  90  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14