252
FXUS64 KTSA 141125
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
625 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Mid-upper level trough axis was moving overhead early this
morning with just some occasional isolated showers & patchy fog
occurring in parts of far E OK & NW AR. Any fog should be short-
lived after sunrise this morning. Additional shower development
is expected this afternoon across far NE OK/ NW AR as wrap around
moisture continues behind the slowly departing system. While there
ought to be enough instability to support some thunder, severe
weather is not expected. QPF continues to look fairly minimal with
shower/ storm activity today... generally on the order of several
hundredths of an inch or less.

More sunshine is expected today, especially across OK zones, and
high temps here should climb into the upper 70s. Far NE OK & NW
AR, however, will likely be held down in the upper 60s/ lower 70s
by more cloud cover in closer proximity to the upper low. NW winds
will become somewhat breezy this afternoon with gusts up to 20-25
mph. Any lingering showers should dissipate by this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Brief ridging follows the departing trough which will promote dry
conditions tonight. Although, clouds will be increasing from west
to east by late tonight into Wednesday as yet another wave
approaches the forecast area. This feature brings some low PoPs
into portions of NE OK Wednesday morning/ early afternoon...
though any precip is currently expected to remain light.
Otherwise, may see some patchy fog develop again tonight,
primarily across NW AR/ far E OK where winds will calm under clear
skies (prior to increasing clouds).

Additional showers and storms are expected by Wednesday night
into Thursday as height falls occur ahead of another Desert SW
low. Chance to likely PoPs are in place for much of the CWA
through late Friday when this system eventually makes it east of
the region. PWATs will again support locally heavy rainfall during
this period and the highest rainfall totals are currently
advertised across NE OK/ NW AR. Additionally, at least a limited
threat of severe weather will accompany storms late Wednesday into
Thursday with hail and wind being the primary hazards.

Upper level ridging attempts to expand into our area over the
weekend which would allow for warmer and drier conditions. That
being said, uncertainty remains regarding the forecast from this
weekend and beyond as some guidance brings additional precip
chances to the region. Will maintain PoPs provided by the NBM
until better agreement arrives. Either way, long range guidance
continues to suggest an active pattern next week with more
opportunities for showers and storms.

Temperatures will generally hover in the upper 70s/ lower 80s
through the work week before warming into the mid-upper 80s this
weekend into next week. Depending on synoptic evolution and
associated rain chances, however, high temps may eventually need
to be reduced for early next week. Low temps are forecast to
remain in the 50s & 60s. No significant wind concerns are forecast
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

For the Oklahoma terminals: VFR will prevail through the TAF
period. Anticipate light to moderate northwest winds through the
day.

For the Arkansas terminals: A mixture of MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings
will prevail through the morning hours with periods of light
rain/showers possible (20%) into the afternoon, especially at
FYV, XNA, and ROG. Ceilings/vsbys improve to VFR by early-mid
afternoon. Light fog will be possible around sunrise Wednesday.
Similar to the Oklahoma terminals, light to moderate northwest
winds will prevail through the day; occasional gusts around 20
knots possible.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  56  84  65 /   0  10  10  60
FSM   77  57  84  65 /  20   0   0  10
MLC   79  58  86  67 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   78  52  82  61 /   0  10  20  70
FYV   72  53  81  63 /  30   0  10  30
BYV   70  55  80  62 /  50  10   0  30
MKO   76  55  85  64 /   0   0  10  40
MIO   75  53  80  62 /  20   0  10  60
F10   78  56  84  64 /   0  10  10  40
HHW   79  58  86  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67