Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 191846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
246 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

High pressure remains well entrenched across the North Country.
Persistent northwesterly flow will keep unseasonably cold and
dry weather over the North Country through midweek. A coastal
low will strengthen Wednesday as it moves from the Carolina
Coast northeastward. The brunt of the impacts with this system
still look to be to our south and east, however can`t rule out
some precipitation over areas of Vermont Wednesday and Thursday.


As of 230 PM EDT Monday...High pressure continues to build
across the North Country this afternoon. Clear skies have been
observed across the region thanks to subsidence associated with
the high pressure and precipitable water values ranging from
0.05 inches to 0.10 inches. Gusty winds will continue through
the afternoon hours as steep surface lapse rates have set up
with temperatures warming into the 20s and 850 mb temperatures
still in the -13C to -15C range. Once temperatures start
cooling around sunset, the boundary layer should quickly
decouple and gusty winds will quickly come to an end.

Temperatures tonight could be a little tricky as a diffuse
shortwave is slated to track across the region. Given
precipitable water values 0.10 inches or less, it`s difficult to
imagine and precipitation will be squeezed out. However, there
is the potential for some cirrus to move over the region between
06Z and 12Z on Tuesday which may inhibit radiational cooling.
However, at this moment, the shortwave looks rather unimpressive
on both water vapor imagery and visible imagery which leans the
forecast away from any cloud cover during the overnight hours.
That being said, temperatures will once again be well below
normal tonight but should be a few degrees warmer across the
board than the past several night as the air mass continues to
modify. 850 mb temperatures continue to warm with models
progging temperatures warming from -15C this afternoon to -7C
by this time tomorrow. Temperatures in Saranac lake will drop to
around -10F tonight while most other locations will remain in
the single digits to lower teens.

Wednesday will see temperatures warming into the upper 20s to
lower 30s as temperatures off the surface continue to warm.
Winds should be light as less mixing is expected with warming
elevated temperatures and the low level jet at 850 mb weakens.


As of 245 PM EDT Monday...No real change in the forecast in
regards to the potential impact from another coastal low
developing off the Carolina coast early Wednesday. While model
trends are hedging a tad further north, the consensus low track
remains south and east of the benchmark with the best deep layer
moisture and lift well southeast of the North Country. Will
offer a slight increase in PoPs in the southeast corner of
Windsor county Wednesday evening/night but still only in the
chance category with perhaps a dusting to an inch of light snow
possible by Thursday morning. Elsewhere, partly cloudy skies
will persist through the period with only a slight chance of
light snow and/or flurries with no accumulations expected at
this time. Temps will remain well below normal with highs only
in the upper 20s to low 30s and lows in the teens to mid 20s.


As of 245 PM EDT Monday...Overall large scale pattern through
the end of the week and much of the weekend will feature a broad
upper trough over the Northeast with bits of shortwave energy
moving generally south of the area as high pressure to our north
keeps the region dry. The result is mainly partly to mostly
cloudy skies, temps below normal in the 20s and 30s, and maybe a
few mountain snow showers. Heading into Sunday and Monday, an
amplifying upper ridge over the central CONUS will look to shift
over the Northeast with some sunshine and closer to normal
temperatures possible.


Through 18z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist through the
forecast period as high pressure remains dominant. Some gusty
winds will be seen at most sites through 22Z-23Z but will
quickly diminish once temperatures begin to cool around sunset.
Expect winds on Tuesday to be 10 kt or less with a few cirrus
clouds moving through the region.


Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.




LONG TERM...Lahiff
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