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000
FXUS63 KEAX 262314
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced risk for severe storms across western and NW MO. Confidence
  is higher in severe storm potential north of I-70; however,
  some severe storms are possible south of I-70.

- All hazards are possible with damaging winds, large hail (2+ inches),
  and tornadoes (some strong). Flooding (both flash and river
  flooding) is also likely with repeated rounds of rainfall
  expected over the next several days.

- Further rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Saturday night into Sunday and again Sunday afternoon. These
  storms also have the potential to be strong to severe. Severe
  storms are expected primarily overnight Saturday into Sunday.
  It is imperative to have ways to get weather
  warnings/information during the overnight.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Two regions of convection continue in the region. The first is
multiple supercells arcing just east of the Missouri River in
western Iowa and northwestern Missouri. The second is near our
southern CWA border, where a long-lived supercell is approaching
southern Bates County at 6 pm. In between, convection has failed
to initiate or sustain itself, in a region of relatively weak
large-scale ascent (and even some indication of subsidence
upstream of the main shortwave farther to the north). As a
result, think the severe-weather threat is relatively low for
the KC metro, with higher probabilities at the northern and
southern CWA borders early this evening. The environment with
both areas of convection remains strongly support of severe
storms capable of all hazards, with effective SRH exceeding 300
J/kg (and locally higher where boundary enhancement exists) and
MLCAPE > 1000 J/kg. The threat should diminish during the late
evening, both from a geographic perspective (storms moving into
southern Iowa and central Missouri) and from a diurnal
perspective (nocturnal near-surface stabilization).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An early publication of the discussion today as the outlook for
strong to severe storms later this afternoon and evening looks more
confident as the morning goes on. All hazards types remain possible
including large hail (2+ inches), damaging winds, and tornadoes
(some strong). There are still several factors that add uncertainty
and may result in storms forming or not forming, but the potential
continues. Any discrete storms that form have the potential to
quickly become severe.

Today/Tonight: Isentropic ascent across the warm sector assisted by
the low level jet kept showers and storms around through the morning
hours. These storms are moving eastward out of the region bringing
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds in excess of 35-40 MPH. The
question that remains is will the cloud cover associated with these
storms move out of the area allowing the environment to destabilized
once more this afternoon and evening. Looking at satellite imagery
the edge of the cloud cover stretches across eastern KS and is
swiftly moving into the area. There is already some wave clouds over
Hutchinson, KS showing some turbulence/instability already building
in that region. High-res model guidance still favors portions of far
NW MO for an enhanced risk of severe weather. Vertical profiles show
a favorable environment for severe storm development with
substantial lift, instability (CAPE > 2200 J/kg), and bulk shear
suggesting discrete storms including supercells. Lapse rates above
7C/km project the potential for large hail (2+ inches); however,
confidence in that could be increased if upper level drier air
intrudes into the area steepening lapse rates. Speed and directional
shear are more than adequate for tornadoes (some strong possible);
however, like with lapse rate, a slight bit more rotation in
vertical winds would increase confidence in tornadic development.

While far NW MO remains the most favorable area, CAMs continue to
show the potential for discrete storms across areas south of and
including the KC metro. Any discrete storm that forms has the chance
to become severe and produce damaging winds and large hail. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out even though the environment
looks slightly less favorable south of I-70. Storms are expected to
occur between 4PM and 9PM tonight. Unfortunately, this is shaping
into one of those environments where it will go from nothing to
something rather quickly and not much in between. This is mainly due
to the multitude of factors including, but not limited to cloud
cover clear, ample forcing, and frontogenetic processes (including
occlusion) near the triple point of the low.

Meanwhile ahead of these discrete storms, a more disorganized
complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to lift out of SW
MO traversing central and NE MO. These storms are not expected to be
severe; however, long duration rainfall increases flooding potential
as more rain accumulates. Widespread 4-6" event total rainfall
accumulations are possible. Flash flooding along roadways as well as
area creeks and streams are possible becoming more likely during
subsequent rounds of heavy rainfall. River flooding is also possible
in the coming days as runoff slowly makes its way into larger rivers.

Saturday into Sunday: Most of the daytime Saturday will likely
remain dry. The modified dry line that will help initiate Friday`s
storms retreats back westward. This eventually sparks convection
across central and eastern KS. These storms are expected to form
into a line that progress into the area overnight. Instability and
continued advection of warm and moist air maintains the line as it
heads eastward following the associated low and LLJ. This line is
anticipated to reach the region during the overnight hours. Model
vertical profiles once again show the potential for this line to be
strong to severe exhibiting QLCS characteristics. Once again, all
severe hazards remain possible including damaging winds, hail, and
isolated quick forming/short duration tornadoes along the line. Due
to the primarily overnight timing of storms, it is imperative to
have ways to receive weather warning and information during the
overnight hours.

Sunday through the rest of the week: The low and associated fronts
slow Sunday morning keeping linger showers and thunderstorms around.
These are not expected severe; however, a strong wind gust is
possible given the antecedent environment. As Sunday afternoon and
evening approaches, storms are expected to strengthen across
central and eastern MO Sunday evening. Strong to severe storms are
possible with the most likely hazards being damaging winds and hail.
Looking forward to next week, we get a brief break in the weather
before chances for precipitation return mid week. Several
uncertainties remain this far out, but the synoptic pattern
suggested shows further possibilities of strong to severe storms
this season.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Convection is unlikely to affect the terminals this evening,
with a region of subsidence between the storms in far northwest
Missouri and the isolated supercells in southwestern Missouri.
As such, aside from strong southerly winds, quiet conditions
should continue at the terminals through 09z. Sub-VFR CIGs may
occur for a period late tonight through the morning (50-60
percent chance), with slow improvement to VFR by or during the
afternoon on Saturday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon
     for MOZ020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon
     for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...CMS
DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...CMS