Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 230506

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Issued at 303 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2018

Quiet conditions are expected this evening through the overnight
hours, before an active pattern begins for much of the remainder
of the forecast period. A few light showers or heavy drizzle will
be possible as early as sunrise tomorrow morning as the atmosphere
saturates, then will become increasingly possible especially in
eastern portions of the forecast area by Friday afternoon in an
area of broad warm-air advection. A few thunderstorms may develop
in central KS near the dryline/pacific front and push east north-
east into the forecast area. These storms may give western areas
of the CWA their best chance for showers and storms; otherwise,
much of the precip with this round may miss the southwestern
quadrant of the forecast area. Limited elevated instability on the
order of a few hundred J/kg is possible as far north as the IA
border as the surface low approaches, resulting a small potential
for some storms to produce small hail.

The surface low will pass through the forecast area overnight
Friday night, with most precipitation focusing along and north of
Highway 36. PWATs are about 200% of normal and rain could be
rather efficient in northern portions of the CWA, producing up to
an inch of total rainfall. The associated cold front will then sweep
through the region around sunrise Saturday morning, pushing any
lingering showers and thunderstorms out for the rest of Saturday.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Saturday in the wake of the
cold front, but will recover quickly on Sunday and Monday as
southerly flow returns.

Several chances for showers and isolated storms are possible
Sunday through Tuesday as several waves move up through zonal to
southwesterly flow aloft. The main focus will be Tuesday as
several rounds of rainfall become possible along a slow-moving
frontal boundary, and a deep plume of moisture flows into the
central Plains. Several inches of rainfall are possible through
these rounds of showers/storms, but the position of the heaviest
rainfall is still in question.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2018

Winds will be off-and-on gusty to 20 kts through the night and
into the daytime hours on Friday. Expect the frequency of the
gusts to be pretty sporadic through the overnight hours, so
generally left the gusts out of the forecast, with an exception of
a TEMPO group to account for the infrequent gusts. Low clouds will
gradually build in throughout the day on Friday, ultimately
transitioning to MVFR, perhaps IFR, CIGs by mid to late Friday
evening. Expect some light rain or drizzle to fall as these low
clouds build in, which could bring VIS down to MVFR levels
Saturday morning. Wind shear could be of a concern through the
overnight hours on Friday as southeast surface winds will
transition to S/SW winds around 1500 feet, presenting almost 90
degrees of turning, and an appreciable increase in speed at that
1500 foot level. Will continue to assess that wind shear concern.




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