Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 260340
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
840 PM MST Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect above normal temperatures and generally light
winds today and Thursday. Southwest winds begin to increase
Friday, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms over far
eastern Arizona into Saturday. Windy, mainly dry and somewhat
cooler conditions are expected for the remainder of the weekend
and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Looking at the evening satellite imagery only a few
high level clouds will cross paths with northern Arizona tonight.
Likewise, overnight low temperatures are on track to remain at
their seasonable levels. All this well handled by the current
forecast package with no evening update.

For Thursday...Dry and warm conditions will continue with light
diurnal winds expected across the area as high pressure builds
over the western United States. High temperatures will generally
range 10 degrees or more above normal. A weak backdoor cold front
could potentially move across the four corners region Thursday
night. However, any cooling associated with this brief intrusion
will be limited as high pressure quickly strengthens back over
Arizona.

From Friday through Tuesday...On Friday, high pressure shifts
eastward while low pressure moves over the west coast. In
response, southwesterly winds will become breezy by Friday
afternoon. An increase in moisture across central/eastern Arizona
will lead to isolated to scattered high-based showers/thunderstorms
Friday afternoon and evening. Precipitation amounts will remain
light and storms will likely produce gusty winds. Friday will also
begin a downward trend in temperatures.

As the low gradually moves inland over the weekend, expect
increasing southwesterly winds across Arizona with a drier air
mass advancing eastward. The chance for showers/thunderstorms will
continue mainly across the eastern third of Arizona Saturday
afternoon with dry condtions returning on Sunday. A persistent
trough will remain over the western United States into next week
with multiple embedded disturbances moving through. Expect
unsettled weather with breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and a
chance for showers. The most likely time period for additional
precipitation chances next week looks to be Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions across
northern Arizona for the next 24 hours under high level clouds.
Winds generally less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not u
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warm condtions continue through Thursday
with light winds. A slight increase in moisture on Friday will allow
scattered high-based thunderstorms to develop over the White
Mountains, with isolated storms possible as far west as Flagstaff
and the Grand Canyon. Most storms will remain dry with gusty
winds.

.Saturday through Monday...The chance for high-based thunderstorms
will continue Saturday over Navajo and Apache Counties with drier
conditions elsewhere. Breezy southwest winds will develop over
the weekend with areas of critical fire weather conditions
possible, mainly along or north of the Mogollon Rim.

&&


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum/Suk
AVIATION...MAS/Suk
FIRE WEATHER...MCT


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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