Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 222104
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
304 PM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front moving into western Montana this afternoon will make
its way across the remainder of the state tonight and tomorrow. It
continues to look like we will dodge any significant rainfall over
the already flooding Milk River, as most of the precipitation
should remain south of the Missouri. Rain showers should start to
make their way into Petroleum and Garfield counties this evening,
spreading eastward overnight and Monday morning. This rain will
depart late Monday night or early Tuesday morning as the
responsible low pressure system turns south into the central
Plains states. Overall, areas south of the Missouri River will see
anywhere from a trace to a half an inch of rain from this, while
those north of the Missouri River likely see no precipitation at
all.

Although a ridge builds into the region Tuesday, anticipate only
modest warming as a cold front extending from northern Canada
tries to squash that down. The main impact from this will be
stronger winds Wednesday as this pushes eastward. Blended with
ConsMOS and NBM for Wednesday through 06Z Thursday to account for
this. After that, used the latest consensus model blends, which
still shows a significant warmup by next weekend.  Hickford
Previous Discussion...

Expect dry weather conditions today with temperatures returning
to near normal following the cold frontal passage from last
evening. Overall, highs across northeast Montana will generally
range on either side of 60 degrees, rather seasonable for this
time of year.

Tonight and Monday, a low pressure system will track well to the
south of the forecast area, with the steadiest associated
precipitation looking to occur over southern Montana. Latest model
runs do have the northern edge of what will be mainly rain
reaching as far north as Winnett, Jordan, and Sidney. Thus, within
the CWA, do not expect much rain north of the Missouri River over
the next few days.

On Tuesday, the next upper ridge will build over the western U.S.
and extend into northeast Montana with dry and mild weather
conditions. A shortwave will track along southern Saskatchewan and
into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Most of the
forecast region will be left out of any precipitation chances with
this, but it may track close enough for it to be worth keeping an
eye on over the next few days.

Late next week, the forecast was trended toward consensus model
blends, reflecting a warm up and renewed dry weather as an upper
ridge once more builds across the western U.S. and amplifies into
eastern Montana and southern Saskatchewan. The CWA will remain on
the leading edge of this feature, pretty much situated under dry
northwest upper flow through that period. Maliawco


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will remain in place over the area terminals
tonight and through much of tomorrow. May see KGDV drop to
MVFR/IFR with rain showers that move through Monday
afternoon and evening. Expect that winds will be from the north
at 5 to 10 kts tonight, increasing to 10 to 15 kts Monday.
Hickford


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood warnings remain in effect for the Milk River and its
tributaries until further notice.

The Milk River continues to slowly rise from Dodson through
Nashua. The main concern is from Saco to Glasgow where Moderate
Flood Stage is expected to hold into next week.

The Frenchman Creek has been rising and a Flood Advisory is still
in effect for this in northeast Phillips County. TFJ / AEH

To monitor river stage readings, go to our Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS) page at www.weather.gov/glasgow then
click on "Rivers and Lakes" then "River Observations". Data for
this page are provided by the USGS.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow


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