133
FXUS61 KILN 162342
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
742 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will lingering across the area for the next
several days will keep the threat for showers and thunderstorms
across parts of the region each day. A warm and humid pattern will
also continue through the next several days. This active pattern
will bring the potential for heavy rain and flooding to parts of the
area, especially into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MCV over the Ohio/Indiana border continues to push east through the
area, with shower/embedded thunderstorms starting to become a little
more numerous. PWs across the region near 2 inches, which could
result in downpours of up to 2 inches per hour, especially where
storms may cluster, but overall storm motion fairly progressive. With
storms closer to the MCV, could be some potential for strong storms
with a severe storm not out of the question. The main area of concern
with clustering/repeated bouts of heavier rain would be in areas of
central Ohio late this afternoon before gradually waning into the
evening hours.

Scattered showers should linger across especially areas south of I70
overnight, but without the focused clustering as what is expected for
Wednesday afternoon.

Warm and humid overnight with lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
With the boundary lingering across the area and yet another shortwave
pushing in from the west, renewed chances for clustering showers and
storms especially along/south of the I70 corridor on Thursday, which
is the current thinking of where the boundary will settle, though
some uncertainty on where it will linger during the day. The threat
again will be locally heavy rain, and the potential for isolated
flash flooding, especially where thunderstorms cluster and/or run
over areas which receive heavy rain on Wednesday. Localized rainfall
amounts of 3 inches are possible.

Perhaps a greater potential for isolated severe storms on Thursday,
with SBCAPE values increasing to 3k J/kg or greater and the potential
for outflow boundary interaction bringing isolated damaging wind
possibilities especially across the south.

Still not confident in the potential for a flood watch, as
location/focus of the heaviest rain on Thursday may be further south
than the Wednesdays rain, but will continue to mention the potential
for localized flood hazards via other means.

For Thursday night, there is a greater potential for thunderstorms to
linger. While the frontal boundary will still be stretched across the
central forecast area, yet another shortwave traveling across the
boundary may drag it further south, continuing to focus the heavy
rain potential especially across the southern third of the forecast
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There is potential for a slight lull in focused repeated heavy rain
on Friday, as the frontal boundary settles south of the Ohio River,
keeping the focus for heavier rain further south. Where a
renewed/more concerning threat occurs is Saturday and Sunday, when
strong ridging over the southern CONUS, with increasing
moisture/instability again over the forecast area. This along with
strengthening NW flow, creating a favorable environment of MCS
activity and yet more potential for heavy rain. As the ridge
continues to strengthen and build north, the area remains on the
periphery of the strengthening ridge, meaning the potential for heavy
rain ridge riders in the NW flow, and the potential for strong storms
and continued heavy rain, this time bringing the potential for a more
focused path than the earlier scattered/small clusters of heavier
rainfall. Still a fair amount of uncertainty on the strength and
position of the building ridge and how it affects associated surface
features along its periphery and the resultant possible focus for
thunderstorm setup.

On Saturday, a ridge over the southeast US competes with another
shortwave moving into Midwest. The local area begins to see the
Friday front lift northeastward, opening up the potential for more
activity overnight and Saturday for the entire CWA. H5 s/w energy
will pass over in waves traveling with the mean westerly flow that
should turn nw in the afternoon. Overnight and into Sunday will see
more robust h5 energy spark additional convection, and a nw-se
oriented frontal boundary is indicated during the day Sunday,
becoming the focus for repeated moderate to heavy rainfall. Activity
beyond Sunday is still indicated but without definitive mass fields
to give a fair determination as to when/where. This, along with what
should be a less conducive atmosphere for moderate to heavy rainfall
will hold back any significant messaging beyond this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Line of storms over central/nw IN are not being picked up by models
with the exception of the latest hourly run of HRRR and to an even
lesser extent the RAP. Using a persistence forecast, have the line of
tsra affecting DAY/CVG/LUK from 3-4Z, ILN 4-5Z, and CMH/LCK 5-6Z. The
models picking up slightly on this are showing a marked decrease in
activity on the northern edge, likely being affected by a modified
airmass ahead of it containing scattered activity. This may hamper
the line reaching CMH/LCK and seriously reduce the G35kt that has
been seen with it`s passage and included in the tempo groups for all
but CMH/LCK where G30kt is forecast. Isolated activity may bubble up
ahead of the line but is not likely to hit any of the terminals if it
does.

VFR cigs are forecast outside of the probability of showers and
thunderstorms (just mentioned showers attm) tomorrow afternoon at all
of the terminals. Focus of activity should be south of the I-70
corridor but the cutoff using the corridor is too narrow and I opted
to include -shra and a MVFR cig for DAY/CMH/LCK, coming in step with
CVG/LUK/ILN though it should be more likely or at least of a longer
duration in the south.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are likely through the weekend and possible
on Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...JDR/Franks
AVIATION...Franks