Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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208
FXUS61 KILN 242339
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
739 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off to the east resulting in southerly
winds that will bring increasing heat and humidity. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the weekend,
particularly in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Relatively insignificant changes made to the next 6-12 hours of
the forecast for the rest of the overnight period with high
pressure in control of the near term forecast.

High pressure extending across the area will move east
overnight. Dry airmass remains in place, so there will be little
to no clouds with light winds. Thus expect some river valley
fog. Guidance seemed to have a reasonable handle on
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Deep, but not particularly strong, southerly flow will bring
increasing moisture into the region through the period. Most
numerical models are picking up on a subtle disturbance moving
out of Kentucky and heading into eastern Ohio on Friday. This
should be sufficient for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur across the southeast part of the forecast area. Other
locations will remain dry with mostly sunny skies.

Convection in the southeast will have dissipated/moved off to
the northeast by evening and skies will clear area wide.
However, a weak short wave will approach later Friday night.
This will bring an increase in clouds and possibly some showers
and thunderstorms towards daybreak Saturday, particularly in the
southern counties.

Temperatures will be warmer both Friday and Friday night. MOS
blend looked reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad southerly surface flow at the beginning of the period will
continue to pull moisture into the region. Meanwhile a weak H5 s/w
will be sliding across the srn Great Lakes on Saturday. These two
features will combine to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms
for Saturday. It will be warm and humid as highs reach the mid 80s.
An isolated location could make the upper 80s.

Saturday night, the models bring a tropical low into the Gulf of
Mexico. North of this system, a weak surface trof will stretch from
the Carolinas to the lower Ohio Valley. This boundary will continue
to provide a focus for scattered convection on Sunday. Highs Sunday
should reach the upper 80s for most locations.

By Monday, a weak backdoor cold front will drop through the Great
Lakes and into northern Ohio. This will keep the chance of
convection in the forecast. With the front dropping south and acting
as a barrier, the tropical low begins to dissipate in the lower MS
valley.

However, the tropical moisture will return by midweek as
high pressure pulls back into ern Canada. This means the return of
summer-like heat and humidity and scattered convection.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clear skies with a light/variable or easterly wind will then
see wind pick up from the south-southwest during the day
tomorrow, remaining under 6kt.

It appears that shallow fog may develop at KLUK once again
which would reduce the visibility to IFR or lower late tonight,
dissipating quickly after daybreak.

OUTLOOK...Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Franks



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