Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 250251

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1051 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Tonight`s KKEY RAOB sampled increased moisture, moderate
instability, and limited inhibition. Heights have changed very
little in the last 12 hours, although this is sure to change in
the next 24 hours. Gentle east to southeast breezes prevail at the
marine observation stations. Temperatures are in the mid to upper
70s, and dewpoints are in the lower 70s. Given the sampled evening
profile, rain chances will persist overnight, despite the meager
flow in the lower levels. No changes planned for the forecast.


No current watches, warnings, or advisories. A ridge of high
pressure will extend across North Florida tonight through Friday
night. A broad area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula
will move northward Friday night through Saturday night into the
central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Freshening southeasterly
breezes on Friday will become strong southeast to south breezes
Saturday afternoon. Breezes will begin to diminish Tuesday and
Tuesday night.


VFR and gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail at the EYW
and MTH terminals overnight. Widely scattered showers will persist
overnight, although confidence in timing is low. Temporary periods
of flight impacts at MTH should improve after 04Z.


A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday,
although the associated associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is poorly organized due to strong upper-level winds.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical
depression or storm is likely to form during the weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Please see high seas forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service for information on gale
warnings associated with this system. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance Friday afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall
is forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the
northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat
of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from
Florida westward to Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For
more information on these threats, please see products issued by
your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook on this system will be issued by 200 AM EDT Friday
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.




Data Collection......DR

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