Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 280827
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
327 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Conditions remained balmy through much of the overnight hours. After
highs reached record breaking levels Sunday afternoon,
temperatures eventually dipped into the low to mid 70s early this
morning.

A ridge of high pressure, that had been maintaining dry weather
across the forecast area, will gradually be shunted east toward the
Great Lakes region Monday, as an upper low begins to open up and
drift into Colorado and Wyoming.  Sunday night convection associated
with this low over western Nebraska will struggle to move east this
morning and will not likely survive to reach the western edge of the
forecast area. Further east, in far southeast Nebraska and western
Iowa, it appears as though diurnal heating could spur a few showers
and storms this afternoon as moisture returns to the region.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler than the last couple of days,
but still well above normal, with highs in the low to mid 90s.

Precipitation chances will return for much of the area beginning
early Tuesday as a disturbance, associated with the degrading upper
low, drifts into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will continue
to be possible through Wednesday, while the area of low pressure
continues it`s journey northeast through the Dakotas. A few storms
could be strong, with the best chance being late Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday night.

With the increased precipitation chances comes a brief reprieve from
the extremely warm temperatures.  Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday are
only expected to get into the mid to upper 80s, which is a mere 10
degrees above normal, as opposed to the 20 degrees we`ve experienced
recently.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

A new ridge will begin to build over the region Thursday and
Friday, boosting temperatures back into the 90s, once again. The
ECMWF seems to want to bring a weak shortwave through the area
Thursday night, while the GFS maintains dry conditions. For now
thinking the generally dry pattern will continue through Friday.
Models still diverge on solutions for next weekend, but hint at a
cold front moving through behind the ridge Friday evening.
However temperatures look to remain above normal, in the mid to
upper 80s, through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions through the period. Scattered thundershowers could
develop in western Iowa Monday afternoon, but would not impact the
KOMA TAF site. Isolated thunderstorms could develop near KOFK late
in the TAF period toward 29/06z, but too far out to include at
this time.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...DeWald



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