Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 241715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
115 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions with gusty southerly winds will continue into this
evening. Overnight, MVFR ceilings will overspread the entire
region from west to east and will linger through the end of the
TAF. Light rain is possible at DHN, ABY, and VLD, with some
thunder possible at ABY and VLD just outside of the TAF window
tomorrow afternoon.



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

In the upper levels, slight ridging will be over the Southeast
today. At the surface, weak high pressure is just off the
Atlantic Coast of Florida. A low will be over Missouri today with
a cold front extending through Texas. Southerly flow will increase
today with winds up to 25 mph possible. POPs will be near zero.
Highs will be in the upper 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Short wave energy topping the upper ridge over the Northern Plains
this morning will be associated with an area of surface low pressure
that will push southeastward off the Carolina Coast tonight. This
will help drag a backdoor cold front southwestward across the
forecast area from late Sunday into Monday morning. Ahead of the
front, surface high pressure over the Florida Peninsula will keep
the area dry and warm. In fact, max temps Sunday will be around 80
degrees across most inland areas, slightly cooler near the coast.
PoPs associated with the front will be highest across our
northeastern zones and taper off toward the southwest from Sunday
into Monday as forcing for ascent over the frontal boundary
gradually weakens. The front will bring noticeably cooler afternoon
temperature to the region for Monday with highs only in the upper
50s across our northern zones to the lower 70s for our coastal
Florida zones.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

High pressure will briefly reassert itself over the forecast area
for Tuesday and Wednesday with springlike temperatures. The next
frontal system will approach from the west on Thursday. Consensus on
timing of the next system has yet to be achieved among the global
models, not uncommon at these time scales. However, at this point,
highest PoPs look to be Thursday night and Friday.


Onshore winds will increase to near cautionary levels across our
western waters today before subsiding later in the weekend. Easterly
winds will then briefly surge behind a back-door cold front from
Monday into Tuesday night. Small craft advisories may be needed
during that time.


Another dry day is expected with minimum RH values at 26 to 40
percent and rain chances near zero. There is a chance for rain
Sunday and Sunday night mainly in SE Alabama and SW Georgia. High
dispersions above 75 are expected today. Red flag criteria will not
be met today since RH values are increasing and will generally be
higher this week than last.


Rainfall over the next week is not expected to be sufficient to
produce any flooding.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   59  82  58  68  54 /   0  30  40  10  10
Panama City   66  76  62  70  58 /  10  10  20  20  10
Dothan        62  80  53  62  52 /  10  60  50  20  10
Albany        61  78  50  58  50 /  10  70  70  20  10
Valdosta      57  80  53  62  52 /   0  70  70  20  10
Cross City    55  78  59  72  56 /   0  10  30  10  10
Apalachicola  64  76  63  70  59 /   0  10  20  10  10


FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for South Walton.



NEAR TERM...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...McD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.