879
FXUS63 KABR 100743
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
243 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures will remain through the weekend,
  along with mainly dry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

An upper level trough and surface frontal boundary will cross the
region today, with increasing northwesterly winds the main impact.
The NBM shows peak wind gusts will remain below advisory levels with
very limited probability gusts exceed 34 knots. The highest wind
gusts of 30-35 knots should occur over the higher terrain areas of
the Prairie Coteau. Behind the frontal boundary, 925 mb temps warm
into the mid to upper teens C, which is above the 75th percentile.
Analogs suggests highs should reach the 70s across the CWA. Buffer
soundings indicate deep mixing to 700 mb with perhaps isolated to
scattered cumulus clouds developing this afternoon, which may limit
some heating.

An area of low pressure will cross southern Canada on Saturday,
bringing westerly winds to this CWA. Models are showing 925 mb temps
warming into the low 20C, which is at or above the 90th percentile.
Analogs support highs reaching the mid 70s, to the lower 80s on
Saturday with favorable mixing winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Upper level northwest flow will be over the Northern Plains Saturday
night through Sunday night, with some weak shortwave energy moving
through Sunday night. Weak ridging develops Monday before a more
zonal pattern sets up on Tuesday ahead of an approaching trough. The
trough will track across the CWA late Wednesday night and Thursday,
and will be accompanied by some decent shortwave energy.

At the surface, a frontal boundary will track across the CWA late
Saturday night/Sunday morning, but looks to move through dry due to
the lack of moisture. High pressure will move in behind the exiting
front, keeping conditions dry through the day Sunday. Will see some
small chances for precipitation Sunday night and Monday, with better
chances Tuesday afternoon through the day Wednesday as a frontal
boundary tracking across the area will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Best chance for convection looks to be across central
South Dakota late Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday evening where better
instability and shear set up. High pressure moves in behind the
exiting front Wednesday night and Thursday, with mainly dry
conditons expected.

High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Sunday, in the
mid 60s to lower 70s Monday, in the lower to mid 70s Tuesday, in the
lower 60s to the lower 70s Wednesday, and in the mid 60s to lower
70s Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the 40s to the lower 50s
through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will remain over the next 24 hours. The main
concern will be increasing winds late Friday morning through the
afternoon hours, with gusts out of the north-northwest 20-30kts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...KF