Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 260910
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
510 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Primarily dry conditions can be expected today with
increasing clouds. A frontal system approaching from the west will
cause showers to develop tonight and persist through Wednesday.
Clouds will stick around through the end of the week with some
additional chances for rain before drier conditons come in time for
the start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Marine, low clouds have begun to push inland off the Long Island
and New England coasts this morning courtesy of an upper-level
low spinning in the western Atlantic. Simultaneously, infrared
imagery shows high clouds encroaching from the west as a
surface low tracks north and east through the Midwest.

Clouds will continue to spread into the region from the
southeast and the west, thicken and lower throughout the day
today as the coastal low spins within reach and the upper trough
associated with the aforementioned low in the Midwest
approaches. Generally, conditions will remain dry, though some
showers are possible in southern Vermont and the Berkshires
beginning late this afternoon as precipitation from the coastal
low moves onshore. With very weak forcing and plenty of mid-
level dry air, showers that form in these areas will be light in
magnitude and isolated to scattered in nature. However, along
with dry air aloft, a fairly deep warm nose exists in these
areas. Due to ample cloud cover, high temperatures here will
likely only reach the low to mid 30s. Additionally, with
precipitation onset looking to initiate later this
afternoon/early this evening, temperatures will likely fall to
or just below zero especially in the higher peaks of the
Southern Greens and Berkshires. Therefore, some freezing rain is
possible in these areas. However, with limited duration
(highest probability of occurrence between 22z Tuesday through
12z Wednesday) and the patchy nature of showers, impacts will be
minimal. In fact, accretions will not exceed 0.01" to 0.03".

High temperatures today will primarily be in the 40s with low to
upper 30s likely in western New England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper-level troughing encroaches further throughout this evening
as the aforementioned associated low tracks into the western
Great Lakes region. Showers will begin to move into the region
beginning late tonight, though these too will be relatively
scattered and light in nature as the cold front associated with
the system weakens with better forcing remaining well to our
west. Showers will linger through the day Wednesday, however, as
the cool boundary slows and becomes stalled over the region.
Despite ample cloud cover, highs will reach the upper 40s to low
50s Wednesday with southwesterly flow maintaining our antecedent
warmer airmass.

Showers taper off by Wednesday evening, giving way to dry
conditions across the region once again. However, tranquility
will be short-lived as a coastal low developing off the
southeast coast Wednesday night begins to push northward by
Thursday morning. With Wednesday`s cold front finishing its
passage through the southeastern portion of the CWA by Thursday
morning, the aforementioned coastal system will interact with
the boundary to generate additional rain. The northwest extent
of such precipitation still retains some uncertainty, but
confidence is relatively high that the axis of heaviest rain
will remain to our south and east. It is possible that portions
of the Mid-Hudson Valley, Northwest Connecticut and the Southern
Berkshires could see higher accumulations of rain on the order
of 0.5" to 1" with the rain axis just touching into these areas.
However, precipitation should be light elsewhere should the rain
shield make a greater northwest extent. Highs Thursday will be a
bit cooler than Wednesday with temperatures expected to span the
40s with upper 30s above 1500 ft.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main challenge for the long term will be focused early in the period
on the slowly exiting cold front off the eastern seaboard and
impending cyclogenesis that ensues as our southern stream trough
amplifies and results in a coastal low that tracks up the boundary.
While there is increasing confidence that a coastal low will
develop, there remains uncertainty on just how far off the coast
the front will be positioned as the coastal low tracks along it.
Probabilistic guidance coupled with where the moisture fetch is
focused within the deterministic trends still point to western New
England as having the highest probability for the western fringe of
the precipitation shield to reach Thursday night. With a tight
moisture and thermal gradient on the northwest side of the ensuing
coastal low likely, QPF amount likely drop off quickly heading into
eastern NY. We therefore confined likely POPs to southeastern
Litchfield County which should be closest to the coastal low with
chance POPs for the rest of western New England trending downwards
heading into eastern NY. Given the potential for the coastal low to
deepen rapidly, it could be become closed off into the mid-levels
Thurs night by the time it is near New England which could allow
cold enough air to wrap in on the backside supporting a changeover
to snow, especially in the higher terrain of western New England.
This was highlighted in the previous forecast and we maintained that
trend in this update with the southern Greens and higher terrain of
the Berkshires/Taconics having the best chance for a changeover.
Given this overall thinking, WPC QPF was thought to be too low as it
suggested a further east solution giving us very little QPF. In
collaboration with neighboring WFOs, we chose to use the NBM QPF
instead.

Most of the precipitation should occur Thursday night but some
precipitation may linger into early Friday if the coastal low
deepens earlier while it is still in the mid-Atlantic or even
Southeast. If it undergoes cyclogenesis earlier, it may evolve into
a mature coastal low by the time it nears the Northeast, allowing
precipitation to track further west/inland by Friday. Thus, we
linger slight chance POPs for western New England into Friday.
Otherwise, expecting northwest winds to quickly turn breezy behind
the departing coastal low and remain breezy through Saturday as the
sfc pressure gradient remains tight behind the off shore low.

Dry air advection looks to ensue Saturday as a warm front likely
remains to our south in PA with Canadian high pressure building to
its north over the Northeast. This would not only support a dry
forecast but synoptic pattern recognition shows potential for breezy
winds to combine with a dry column to raise some fire weather
concerns, especially areas west of the Hudson River where lower QPF
amounts are expected earlier in the week. Given this is for day 5,
still plenty of time to monitor trends but thought it was worth
mentioning.

Otherwise, overall temperatures will remain near normal for late
March through the long term period and our next chance for more
widespread precipitation should hold off until the beginning to the
new work week as we welcome April.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
While VFR conditions are in place at all TAFs as of 06 UTC
Tuesday, ceilings are expected to deteriorate through the
remainder of the TAF cycle for all sites as a marine air mass
infiltrates the region from southeast to northwest early this
morning. Latest GOES16 night fog channel already shows low
stratus from this marine deck across much of New England with
these lower ceilings spreading westward. PSF and POU will
experience MVFR ceilings first reaching POU by 07 - 10 UTC and
following at PSF by 12 - 15 UTC. ALB and GFL will remain VFR
through 15 UTC before the MVFR ceilings approach by 15 - 18 UTC
with MVFR cigs reaching ALB first followed by GFL by midday or
early afternoon.

Low-level moisture remains trapped underneath a subsidence
inversion through the remainder of the TAF period which will not
only support widespread MVFR ceilings but could even result in
IFR ceilings. There is still uncertainty on exactly which sites
and at what time IFR cigs may develop so only included IFR
ceilings at PSF at this time after 18 UTC. Besides low ceilings,
east to southeasterly winds in the boundary layer will also
support weak warm air advection off the Atlantic which may lead
to patchy drizzle and even patchy fog. Again, given some
uncertainty, only show reduced vsby at PSF developing after 00
UTC Wed but do show VCSH at all TAF sites after 21 UTC TUE. At a
minimum, MVFR ceilings will persist through the end of the TAF
cycle at all terminals but note that we may introduce IFR
ceilings and MVFR vsby at more sites in future updates depending
on how moisture profiles in forecast soundings trend. Best
chance for this is at POU given closer proximity to the
Atlantic.

Light and variable winds tonight trend out of the northeast by
14 - 17 UTC and become sustained around 5kts. Winds gradually
increase through the afternoon, becoming sustained 5-9kts and
shift to the east and southeast. These winds continue through
the end of the TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Speciale


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