820
FXUS61 KBUF 261914
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
314 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain over the eastern Great Lakes
region through Saturday, producing several rounds of showers
and scattered thunderstorms with localized heavy rainfall
possible. The front will finally move east of the area Saturday
night, with high pressure building into the eastern Great Lakes
Sunday providing a dry second half of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A humid airmass persists across western and north-central NY today.
A broad ridge remains across the southeast U.S. with zonal flow
across the eastern Great Lakes region and Northeast. A wavy
stationary front remains across the Great Lakes region, with it
extending across western NY. A dichotomy of weather exists
across the forecast area where stratus and temperatures in the
mid 60s are just north of the front and sunshine, congested
cumulus and temperatures in the 80s are south of the front.
Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE of 1000 J/kg and shear of less than 25
knots across the western Southern Tier. Based on satellite
imagery, little if any glaciation has occurred in cu development
and based on the kinematics, severe threat is low through this
evening.

Elsewhere, multiple waves will continue to ride the westerly flow
today. Areas of rain will ride along the southern shore of Lake
Ontario this afternoon, while scattered showers move across the
North Country this afternoon.

The ridge builds northward while a shortwave trough moves into the
Upper Great Lakes region tonight. Widely scattered showers are
possible with the humid airmass in place but organized convection is
not anticipated for most of the night. A surface low will move into
the central Great Lakes Friday morning. A warm front will lift
northward across western NY Friday. Surface heating and a very
humid airmass will lead to convection initiation across western
NY by late Friday morning. A pre-frontal trough will likely be
the focus of showers and storms from the western Southern Tier
into the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. The Buffalo
Metro and Niagara Frontier will be on the western fringe of
organized convection and should be spared by the greater
rainfall amounts. High PWATS, light 850-300mb wind, high RH% in
1000-500mb layer increases the potential for heavy rain across
the region. HREF 3-hr PMM shows medium (50-70%) probability of
greater than an inch of rain from Cattaraugus county to Monroe
county with probabilities tapering off west and east of that
corridor. There is a conditional threat for localized flash
flooding in this area.

Further north, showers are likely with a few thunderstorms possible
Friday afternoon. Fcst shear is higher, but instability is low. The
threat for heavy rainfall is low east of Lake Ontario through
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The region will remain in a moist airmass through at least Saturday
morning, resulting in a wet few days to start the period.

The sfc low over the central Great Lakes will slowly track to
northern NY by Saturday night, as mid and upper level flow
weakens, causing its slower track. As the sfc low`s trailing
cold front crosses the area late Saturday morning through the
evening, providing additional forcing, and combined with the
moist and unstable atmosphere in place, additional heavy showers
along with thunderstorms are expected through the day on
Saturday.

Guidance is flip flopping back and forth with the speed of the cold
front tracking across the area on Saturday. If the front does track
across the area slower, during the middle of the day with peak
daytime heating, then rainfall amounts will likely increase.

Showers and thunderstorms will taper off from west to east Saturday
afternoon through the evening, resulting in mostly dry conditions
for Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A passing sfc high on Sunday will provide at least one dry day over
the weekend, with the drier weather continuing into Monday morning.
An incoming cold front and trough will increase the potential for
showers later on Monday, which will continue through Tuesday evening
for at least some portions of the area. Drier weather is expected
for Wednesday and Thursdsay, though some guidance is suggesting
the potential for afternoon showers with the daytime heating.

Temperatures will remain near to above normal for the period, with
the warmest temperatures expected on Monday ahead of the
approaching cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A wavy stationary boundary will remain across western NY through
tonight. Northeast flow has led to persistent stratus south of
Lake Ontario today. MVFR conditions will likely persist at KROC
and kIAG through the afternoon. Stable, billow clouds can be
found north of the boundary with a few waves moving in the
westerly flow across the region. Convection is occurring south
of the boundary. A few thunderstorms are possible but mainly
east of KJHW.

Tonight, the stalled frontal zone will remain over the eastern Great
Lakes. Convergence and moisture along the front will continue to
support a few scattered showers overnight, but these should remain
rather disorganized. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue, with some IFR
across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop across western NY
late Friday morning. These will likely produce heavy rain with
flight restrictions possible from KJHW to KROC. At this time,
KBUF and KIAG are west of the main axis of rainfall. Showers
will be possible at KART through the morning. MVFR flight
conditions will slowly improve across the higher terrain.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely. Scattered thunderstorms
also possible with local/brief IFR. Improving to VFR with rain
ending Saturday night.

Sunday...VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms later in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build from Quebec to northern New England by
Friday, while a frontal zone remains stalled over the southern
Great Lakes. Northeast winds will increase on Lake Ontario today
as the surface high passes by to the north, bringing a round of
Small Craft Advisory conditions to the south shore of the lake
later today through tonight. Winds will remain lighter on Lake
Erie, with some chop developing tonight.

Winds will diminish by Friday morning, then becoming southerly later
Friday through Friday night as the stalled frontal zone moves back
north as a warm front.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ001>004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...HSK/SW
LONG TERM...HSK/SW
AVIATION...Hitchcock/HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock