Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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201 FXUS63 KEAX 180530 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1230 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...Updated 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures in the 80s through Tuesday, 5 to 10 degrees above normal. - Widely scattered precipitation chances (10-20%) Saturday and Sunday. - Active Pattern Sunday Night through at least Wednesday. Severe storm concerns focused on Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Mid-level water vapor imagery reveals the elongated long wave trough axis remains stretched from the the upper Mid-west back to the Permian Basin of Texas. Forcing along the Gulf Coast persists this afternoon, with a second area of forcing for ascent nearer a more pronounced H500 short wave lifting along the OK/TX border, stretching across the Ozark Plateau to the northeast. Within this belt of more moist, somewhat unstable air, a robust cu field has developed with several brief updrafts popping up on radar, some as far north as the Osage River Basin of Truman Lake to the Lake of the Ozarks. Have included some low (15%) chance PoPs through the evening for this activity. Overnight, the positively tilted mid-level ridge will build from the southwestern High Plains into and across the Region. With the upper ridge aloft, enhanced by the impingement of the broader H500 trough along the Canadian Prairies, persisting through Saturday, WAA will increase. Afternoon highs will reach about 10 degrees above normal, in the mid to upper 80s. Through the late afternoon, a cold front will drop out of the north, providing a focus for widely scattered showers and thunder across northern Missouri and potentially as far south as the KC Metro and Missouri River valley through the evening. Severe storms are not expected at this time given weak shear profiles. Overnight, a weak short wave trough will be the focus for additional development across Kansas and southern Nebraska, with this complex expected to lift east- northeast across northern Missouri through Sunday morning. Again, most locations across central and southern Missouri will remain dry. Through Sunday afternoon, expect convection to develop across the central Plains associated with another open short wave advancing across the region. Although some question to the environment will exist depending on the morning convection, surface dew points into the 60s are expected by the late afternoon, with storms growing upscale as they advance eastward into the evening into northeastern Kansas and western Missouri. One or two severe storms cannot be ruled out overnight, with generally a concern for damaging winds. The wider concern may be localized heavy rainfall Sunday night. Monday, mid-range solutions continue to hint at recovery through the day Monday, with sufficient moisture return ahead of the advancing short wave trough onto the plains. A dry line will surge as far as central Kansas Monday evening, with initiation through the late afternoon into the evening, building east-northeast with time along the broader area of ascent ahead of the synoptic wave. We could see some robust activity within the warm sector through Monday evening, near the warm front across night, southeast Nebraska and across northwestern Missouri into Iowa. Sufficient instability, 1200 to 2000 J/Kg MLCAPE and 35 to 45 kts of bulk 0-6km shear will be present, supporting organized convection. Again, outside of severe concerns, heavy rainfall will likely lead to increased flooding concerns. Tuesday, expect most activity to lift north through the morning, with the region once again well within the warm sector with recovery persisting through the day. Surface dew points will surge into the mid to upper 60s, with activity developing along and ahead of the cold front through the afternoon into the evening as it advances across Missouri. Ample instability and shear profiles will support organization and increase severe concerns. Overall, agree with the Monday and Tuesday Slight Risks from SPC given the current concerns for the early week timeframe. Some lingering chances for precipitation on Wednesday before ridging may build in to close out the work week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Overnight and during the morning skies will remain clear. There is potential for some daytime cumulus development but bases will remain VFR. Winds during the afternoon will be between 5 and 10 kts. Cold front starts moving toward the area later this evening, and may force a few showers. Coverage at this time appears limited, so will just place VCSH into the TAFs, and will continue to monitor trends through the day. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kurtz AVIATION...Krull