Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221117
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
617 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...Updated 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front moves through the area today with gusty
  north winds and colder temperatures behind it. Isolated to
  scattered (20- 40%) showers are also possible ahead/ along the
  front.

- Sub-freezing temperatures for overnight lows tonight/ Saturday
  morning.

- A better chance for rain arrives Sunday and Sunday night.
  Strong non-thunderstorm winds look likely (55-65%) with this
  system. But a few strong thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
  either.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Water vapor imagery and upper-air analysis shows general split-flow
across much of the CONUS. There is a shortwave trough south of the
area moving along the Red River. Another system, in the polar jet,
was moving across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. It
is this feature that will help to push a strong cold front through
the area from later this morning through this afternoon. At the
surface, an area of low pressure was noted over south-central
Nebraska with a warm front extending to southeast across eastern
Kansas and into far southwestern Missouri. Another boundary extends
eastward across Iowa. As the upper shortwave trough moves east, its
associated cold front will be forced southward. There will be modest
to slight moisture return ahead of the cold front and that will lead
to isolated to scattered showers with the frontal passage. Winds
behind the front will increase from the north with gusts of 25-30
mph likely through or just after sunset. Much colder air will move
into the area behind this front and we`ll see low temperatures
across the area bottom out in the middle to upper 20s. While it has
been a mild late winter and early spring, we still haven`t
accumulated enough growing degree days to justify any kind of frost/
freeze headlines. So we`ll continue to mention the cold temperatures
in the DSS packet. But folks that have sensitive vegetation that
could susceptible to these temperatures will need to protect them.

A stronger system will build into the Southwest Saturday and
Saturday night. Strong southwesterly upper-level flow will strengthen
lee troughing and tighten the pressure gradient across the central
and eventually eastern Plains. A strong low-level jet develops and
spreads eastward Sunday morning as the upper trough begins to move
into the central and southern High Plains. As the tighter surface
pressure gradient and strong low-level flow move east in response,
winds will become strong and gusty across eastern Kansas and western
Missouri. It is looking more likely that this will become a wind
advisory level event with sustained winds between 25-30 kts and
gusts near 45 mph. This all shifts eastward during the evening and
overnight hours as the shortwave and associated deep surface low
lift northeast. While it will be the overnight hours, it looks
sufficiently mixed in the low-levels that wind gusts in excess of 45
mph look possible over much of the forecast area Sunday night. The
other aspect of this will be the potential for showers and a few
thunderstorms late in the evening and overnight. Available CAPE will
be a limiting factor but given strong kinematics, shear will be very
strong and that may be enough to overcome the weak instability and
lead to some strong storms. Nearly unidirectional flow and a weak
inversion may support some gusts stronger than the ambient flow
during the overnight hours.

Unseasonably cold temperatures move into the area through the middle
of next week. Lows will likely be the coldest Wednesday morning with
high pressure over the region leading to light winds, clear skies
and good radiational cooling. Our current forecast calls for lows to
bottom out from the mid teens to mid 20s. Late in the week, quasi-
zonal flow develops with strong westerly upper-level flow leading to a
strengthening lee trough and southerly winds across the central and
eastern Plains. This helps warm the area back into the 60s in time
for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Front moving through will bring MVFR ceilings by late morning
and continue through early afternoon. Scattered showers are
expected around the area but are not forecast to be strong.
North-northwest winds behind the cold front will gust to around
25kts at times this afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Krull


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