Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260816

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
316 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Temperatures and winds today and precip chances tonight will be
the main issues for the period.

The shortwave trough currently moving through the CWA will quickly
move off into the Great Lakes today. The surface trough axis/cold
front still extends from northwestern MN into southeastern ND and
will be moving through Fargo shortly. Winds have been briefly
gusty as winds first shift to the north and we get the initial
surge of cold air advection, but have settled down quickly further
north. Think that winds will pick up again this afternoon as we
get some good mixing, but mostly in the 15 to 20 kt range and not
as high as the northwestern counties saw yesterday. There will be
good sunshine and winds shifting northwesterly late in the day
will bring some warm air advection by afternoon/evening. Bumped up
temps just a bit in the western counties as we should get back
into the 60s, with 50s in the east.

Tonight, another shortwave clipper digging down out of Canada
into northern MN will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air back
into the CWA towards morning, along with the possibility of some
light showers in the Lake of the Woods region. Think at this point
that the showers will stay rain, and anything reaching the ground
will be very light if anything. The thermal ridge will be over
the CWA for much of the night and the strong cold air advection
doesn`t start until the early morning hours, so kept lows in the
upper 30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Surface high pressure is expected to build over the region after the
passage of a quick clipper low over central MN. Mild temperatures in
the 50s and 60s are expected for Friday and Saturday as the high
gradually shifts to the southeast. Breezy winds on Friday morning
will diminish through the afternoon and into Saturday. Relative
humidity values during the Fri/Sat period will be lowest during
Saturday afternoon with 25-30% RH values across much of the region.
However, southerly winds at 10 to 15 mph may mitigate the fire
weather concern. This period should still be monitored in the coming
days for further fire weather potential.

As upper level ridging sets up over the central CONUS during this
period a broad longwave trough will begin establishing over the
western third of the US. As this occurs lee troughing and a surface
high over the midwest will allow for southerly return flow through
the central Plains. This will allow southerly winds to increase
during the day Sunday to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph
possible. Poleward moisture advection should help keep RH values in
the 35-45% range for Sunday afternoon, but model differences in
moisture return throw some uncertainty into this forecast. Poor
moisture return during the morning and early afternoon hours on
Sunday may lead to a higher fire weather potential than what is
currently forecast.

These differences in moisture return forecasts will also play a role
in the possibility for thunder on Monday afternoon and evening. Most
models show a narrow region of at least low end MUCAPE ahead of an
upper level shortwave and attendant surface low over the Red River
Valley and far northwestern MN by late Monday afternoon and evening.
With modest ascent likely across the region a few rumbles of thunder
will be possible Monday night. Although temperatures will warm into
the upper 70s for Sunday and Monday, cooler temperatures in the mid
60s are expected for Tuesday as a cold front brings in a cooler
air mass.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Looking more like there will be a 1-2 hour burst of stronger winds
behind the cold front overnight, followed by a substantial
decrease again. By mid Thursday morning, there may be some gusts
again, but not as much as previously thought.


Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Moderate flooding continues at Oslo with water levels expected to
remain at moderate flood stage through the remainder of the week and
into early next week. Hillsboro and Alvarado have recently dropped
into minor flood stage and are expected to continue to recede.

The Red River at Drayton and Pembina are the only forecast points
that are expected to continue rising with Drayton currently in minor
flood stage and Pembina reaching minor stage by the weekend. Both
points should begin to recede by early next week.




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