Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 192337

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Pretty tricky forecast, because temperatures are so warm today
and this evening that the snow is pretty much melting as it falls.
Yet our forecast software has a difficult time handling that. So
to start with, think that the melting as it falls will continue
through the evening, then the light snow may begin to accumulate
again after midnight into Tuesday morning. But if the snow stays
very light, it may not be able to accumulate much. However, think
the snow will stay light enough that it will not be able to
accumulate on roads. So the snow itself will probably not be much
of an impact. The bigger impact would be if the wet roads are
able to freeze in spots, and create slippery spots. It will be
close, so the main word is to check 511 or the latest ND/MN road
conditions if planning travel. The NWS does not forecast road
conditions, which are likely to affect people the most tonight
into early Tuesday. There may also be some patchy fog around, with
visibilities below a mile.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Impacts centered on light snow accumulations after sundown as road
surfaces cool to the freezing mark. Light snow continues to fall
across much of eastern North Dakota and is slowly moving into
Minnesota as a saturated inverted midlevel trough drifts to the
east. Impacts remain minimal with pavement temperatures above
freezing this afternoon and into the evening. As the surfaces cool
with sundown snow fall will stop melting allowing accumulation.
Given the broad weak forcing total precip amounts are expected to
range from near 0.1" in the north to a 0.2" in the south with snow
fall amounts by morning generally under an inch in the north to 1
to 2 inches from Langdon to Grand Forks to Park Rapids. A 2 to 3
inch band is possible along and south of the I94 corridor making
the morning commute a bit messy. A tight northeastern boundary of
snow no snow is expected with drier air being pulled into the
system on easterly winds.

Clouds will keep temps in the mid to upper 20s through the
overnight. Will keep a mention of light snow lingering into
Tuesday as weak upper flow allows the inverted trough to persist
across west central MN. Max temps in the low 30s where precip
lingers into the afternoon across west central MN otherwise mid to
upper 30s are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Tue night through Thu...Snow system will be pushing off to the south
and east Tue night followed by high pressure and light winds for
Wed/Thu. Flow aloft will be northwest as the high remains to our
northeast. With this will come milder temperatures, above seasonal
averages with highs from the upper 30s into the 40s.

Fri into the weekend...The upper ridge axis shifts east of the
forecast area allowing moisture plume to spread northward. The
main surface low will be well to the south, but solutions all have
a warm conveyor type structure sending quite a bit of precip our
way. Ensemble percentiles still contain high Pwat values. Main
question is surface and profile temperatures which will probably
be warm enough to allow all variations of rain/mixed/snow during
the Fri night through Sun morning time frame. These timing
questions will undoubtedly take some time to resolve, leaving much
uncertainty trying to figure potential impacts. A second wave is
currently featured in the 12z GFS/ECMWF editions, most of which
could be light snow for Sun. Unsettled weather could continue into
Mon, along with decreasing temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Think KDVL/KGFK/KFAR will maintain about where they are at now
through the overnight period, keeping some fog or very light snow.
The lower conditions are taking longer to reach KTVF and KBJI, but
they should slowly work into those locations too. The snow and fog
should end first at KDVL/KGFK/KFAR, but the low ceilings may
linger throughout the entire TAF period.




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