Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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523 FXUS64 KLZK 080507 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1207 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Main concern for this forecast period, is severe thunderstorm/heavy rain potential for Wednesday afternoon and evening. 19z subjective surface analysis reveals a weak nearly stationary boundary along the I-40 corridor. this feature will move northward overnight. A few convective cells are possible during the overnight hours, as an increasing low level jet supporting a warm air advection pattern acts to force a corresponding convective response. A cold front will approach the state on Wednesday. and is expected to force convection, some some severe. Convective inhibition will be weak at the start of the day, and may allow for some activity early in the day. The strongest cells will develop and progress eastward during the mid afternoon and early evening period. Several CAM runs continue to indicate the upscale formation of a QLCS during the late afternoon hours. All possible severe phenomena will be possible with the strongest storms. A strong signal for large hail is indicated by a number of forecast parameters. Widely scattered activity is expected on Thursday, across mainly southern sections, supported by the exiting frontal boundary. The intensity of this activity will be much weaker. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Long term starts with a cold front to the south of the state which will keep rain chances in the forecast...mainly across the southern portions of the state. By Friday morning, winds aloft will become more northwesterly and finally push the front away from the state which will allow surface High pressure to build into the region. This will lead to a prolonged stretch of dry weather through much of the weekend. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80`s with lows in the 50`s and 60`s. Rain chances will return to the forecast towards the end of Mother`s Day as High pressure departs to the east and a storm system approaches from the west. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Expect primarily VFR conditions overnight for sites that will remain dry. However...central sections will see convection continuing to develop for the early morning hrs...with MVFR or lower conditions expected. Expect this activity to move out of these areas by after sunrise...with mainly dry conditions expected into the afternoon hrs. More convection will develop by mid/late afternoon across WRN/NWRN sections...dropping SE into the evening hrs Thu. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 62 82 55 73 / 80 10 10 0 Camden AR 67 86 58 78 / 60 20 30 0 Harrison AR 54 76 51 70 / 70 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 63 84 57 76 / 80 20 20 0 Little Rock AR 67 84 59 76 / 70 10 10 0 Monticello AR 69 87 62 77 / 50 20 30 0 Mount Ida AR 62 84 56 76 / 80 20 10 0 Mountain Home AR 55 78 52 72 / 60 0 0 0 Newport AR 63 82 56 72 / 80 10 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 68 84 60 74 / 60 10 20 0 Russellville AR 60 84 55 76 / 70 10 10 0 Searcy AR 63 83 56 73 / 90 10 10 0 Stuttgart AR 67 83 60 72 / 70 10 20 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....65 AVIATION...62