Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 260628
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
228 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Wedge of high pressure remains in control through Tuesday as low
pressure lingers offshore. A coastal low is becoming
increasingly likely mid week bringing inclement weather to
eastern North Carolina. High pressure then builds in from the
south and west over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 145 AM Tuesday...Canadian high pressure will remain in
control, as upper ridge builds over the SE US and low pressure
continues to meander offshore. Light winds persist for much of
the CWA outside of OBX where the pressure gradient is tighter.
High clouds continue streaming in from the west, with the low
pressure offshore bringing a low stratus deck into our CWA.
Currently this deck has approached Hatteras Island, moving
westward through the night. Temps forecast remains on track,
currently mid to upper 30s inland and mid 40s for beaches. High
clouds more concentrated towards southern regions of our coastal
plain suggest that the coldest spot for this morning will be NW
regions (Martin/Pitt Cos). Patchy frost potential still exists
west of hwy 17, but marginal nature prevents any frost advisory
issuance. Coastal Flooding/Overwash concerns still ongoing along
the Outer Banks, particularly with this morning`s high tide,
see section below for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...Sfc high pressure will remain in control
as upper ridge grad slides off the coast through the day, and
stubborn low pressure continues to meander well offshore.
Onshore flow and increasing moisture around the offshore low
will allow for lower clouds to advect in, making for partly
sunny to cloudy skies. Low level thickness values, NNE flow and
mostly cloudy skies support high temps in the 50s for the Outer
Banks and mid to upper 60s inland. Tuesday night will be more
mild with increased cloud cover, mid to upper 40s inland and
near 50 along the coast. Coldest spots will be N of hwy 264
stretching all the way to NOBX due to NE flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM Mon... Inclement weather forecast midweek,
followed by quieter weather this weekend.

Wed through Fri...Next round of inclement weather will be Wed night
into Thurs. Low pressure over the Upper Midwest in response to
a negatively tilted shortwave trough will drag a slow-moving
cold front towards the Carolinas on Wednesday, with this front
eventually stalling over the area Wed night. The frontal
boundary will likely have a continued increase in clouds and
some modest shower activity although best lift will be displaced
well to our west.

The bigger concern is the second s/w trough mentioned earlier
which is forecast to pivot across the Gulf States Wed night
into Thurs, which will drive robust cyclogenesis along the
surface boundary. Guidance continues to suggest cyclogenesis
along the Southeastern Coast with this surface low then tracking
NE`wards on Thurs nearing the NC coast Thurs afternoon before
departing to the north and east overnight. With this in mind,
the risk of heavy rainfall, strong winds and renewed coastal
impacts continue to increase for Wed night into Thurs, but their
severity still remains uncertain. Increased winds and PoPs
slightly from the prior forecast, focusing the heaviest
rainfall overnight Wednesday into Thursday, and the strongest
winds Thursday night into Friday. Did add in a SCHC of some
thunder mainly along our SW`rn zones and coastal waters as some
instability does look to be advected NE`wards into the region,
though there remains low confidence in overall coverage of any
thunder threat given current low track, which may keep the area
in a more stable airmass than currently forecast. Warmest day
across the area will be Wed with near to above avg temps
forecast everywhere but the NOBX where onshore flow and cloud
cover may limit highs. Thurs and Fri temps decrease becoming
slightly below avg as widespread cloudcover and steady rain
persist.

This weekend...Dry weather returns for next weekend as high
pressure builds back over the area from the southwest. This will
allow temps to rebound as well with high temps increasing each
day this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tue night/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR currently in place for much of
the region. Exception is OBX where a stratus deck is slowly
moving westward. KHSE reported OVC 1,300 ft, and the solid MVFR
to borderline IFR conditions will also be advancing westward
with the cloud deck. Current expectation is for the stratus to
approach KEWN in the morning, between 14Z and 16Z. Models
depict the clouds to stop here then retreat eastward again as
the high helps push the low offshore further east. This means
the remaining TAF sites will be spared from the sub-IFR
ceilings. Some uncertainty does exist regarding the extent of
this cloud deck, so kept FEW010/SCT010 mentions in the TAFs for
KISO/KPGV/KOAJ. Next round of sub-VFR ceilings occurs at the end
of the TAF period (after 0Z Wednesday) with the ridge moving
offshore ahead of an approaching cold front.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...As we get into Wed and Wed night a cold front
will approach the area bringing a risk of showers and sub VFR
ceilings, with a more potent coastal low impacting the area late
Wed night into Thurs and bringing another period of sub-VFR
flight conditions. Expect rapid clearing by Fri with VFR
conditions then returning for the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 215 AM Tuesday...Winds are N/NE`rly 15G20-25kts for
coastal waters, and seas are 8-13ft. Winds will be fairly
constant Tuesday as the low offshore refuses to budge, slowly
meandering further east as we get into Tuesday night. Seas will
be increasing a tad Tuesday as high period swell moves in from
the NE associated with the low offshore. For inland sounds and
rivers, winds will be decreasing a bit faster than the coastal
waters with less of an influence from the low offshore.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Mon...We do get a brief reprieve Tue night through
Wed with winds generally remaining around 5-10 kts coming from
the NE-E. However, focus then turns to Thurs as a cold front
approaches the waters, with a coastal low then develops and
lifts across the area. Details on low track and intensity are
slowly coming into focus with a return of widespread Gales
especially across our coastal waters and larger sounds appearing
increasingly likely Thu night into Friday.

The persistent northerly fetch will keep seas dangerously high with
the worst conditions lasting through Tuesday morning - 8-12 feet
from Cape Lookout northward, and up to 15 feet for the waters beyond
15 nm. Seas will be slow to fall through the week, and while most
recent guidance shows a brief break in the seas with seas
falling closer to 4-6 ft Wed night into Thursday morning, SCA
conditions may not break before the next coastal low approaches
the area on Thurs. Seas may however fall for good over the
weekend as high pressure comes in from the south and west.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM Mon...Coastal Flood Warnings (2-4 ft agl) remain
in effect through Tuesday morning for oceanside areas from
Ocracoke Inlet north to Duck. This is to account for the next
two high tide cycles. NC 12 remains closed per NCDOT on the
northern end of Ocracoke Island due to ocean overwash and
dangerous driving conditions this morning. Hatteras to Ocracoke
ferry service remains suspended until further notice. Other
oceanside areas with vulnerable dune structure may also be
impacted and impassable at times, esp around high tide
(845 pm tonight and 9 am Tue).

High Surf Advisories continue from Cape Lookout north due to
large, breaking waves and wave runup. North of Cape Hatteras,
the advisory will run through Wednesday morning as persistent
northerly fetch funnels large long-period swell along the
beaches with surf zone seas reaching up to 8-12 feet.

Details are beginning to come into at least a little better
focus for later this week, with an increasing potential for
another coastal low to impact the area at the end of the work
week with another round of strong winds and coastal flooding
possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ196-204.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     NCZ203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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