Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 232335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
635 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

A weak cold front that was across northwest Minnesota this
afternoon will move southward overnight, and shift the winds to
the north. This front is moisture starved and will likely go
through without any measurable precipitation. However, I can`t
rule out a sprinkle or two during the morning/afternoon,
especially in western Minnesota. This front will drop temperatures
back to near normal on Tuesday. However, this is almost normal for
this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Very little impactful weather is expected through the upcoming
weekend. Another frontal boundary will move across the region
Thursday, but again, moisture is limited as gulf moisture is
cutoff. The main weather element after Tuesday will be a few cool
nights with lows dropping to near freezing. Highs will generally
be near 60 degrees.

By late in the week, and into next weekend, the mean pattern
begins to shift from the northwest, to the southwest. This means
warmer and more unsettled weather developing by next week. This
could possibly include thunderstorms.

There remains some differences in the GFS/EC in terms of a
developing upper ridge in the southeast CONUS (GFS), vs a more
progressive pattern (EC) by next Tuesday. If the forecast is more
in line of the GFS, this would mean a very unsettled and a
prolonged period of wet weather. This is due to the upper ridge
holding in the southeast CONUS and allow deeper moisture and less
of a chance of a Canadian air mass moving through. The more
progressive pattern of the EC will lead to a short period of wet
weather, and another cool down by next week. The GEM is more in
line with the GFS with the upper ridge holding in the southeast.
Even if the more progressive pattern wins out, the air mass behind
the EC is more modified and less of a chance of well below normal


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions expected throughout the period. High-mid level
clouds will increase overnight & into the morning, before
clearing during the afternoon. A few sprinkles may be possible at
AXN & RWF but otherwise all other sites will be dry. Light &
variable winds overnight become northerly & increase through the
morning, with gusts up to 20 kts expected.

KMSP...No additional concerns

Wednesday...VFR. Variable wind 5 kt or less.
Thursday...VFR becoming MVFR with a chance of rain in the PM.
Southwest wind 5 to 10 kt becoming Northwest 10 to 15 kt.
Friday...VFR. Variable wind 5 kt or less.



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