070
FXUS63 KMPX 051123
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny today and increasing clouds on Monday.

- Winds increasing on Monday with gusts up into the 40 to 45 mph
  range, especially in western Minnesota.

- A wet period returns Monday night and could continue for much
  of the week ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Today...Clear skies with high pressure dominating today. This
morning the clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the
30s. With the high pressure over us there will be little
pressure gradient and light winds this morning. Together these
factor will create an ideal situation for fog and mist to form.
However ground temperatures may be high enough to prevent large
enough drops in temperatures for widespread fog to form.
Overall it appears more like that patchy fog will form in areas
where dew points are higher. Overall, today will be a great day
to be outside as it will be sunny and in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

Monday and Tuesday...By Monday morning the high pressure will
be more so over the central Great Lakes and our next rain system
will be moving east of the Rockies. As the low associated with
this system deepens on the lee of the Rockies the pressure
gradient will increase. This increasing pressure gradient
combined with warm air advection, promoting mixing, will
increase wind speeds. Gusts on Monday could reach into the 40 to
45 mph range, especially in western Minnesota. With continued
sunny skies to start the day and warm air advection Monday will
be the warmest day of the week with temperatures in the 70s.
Thankfully this is also coming in with moisture advection to
help prevent a fire weather risk. There should be enough warming
through the atmosphere to create some instability and allow for
thunderstorms to form. The timing through for the forcing is
not ideal for thunderstorms. This is because the main forcing
likely comes through Monday night into Tuesday morning, so
unless a MCS can form over the Dakotas the chance for
thunderstorms maintaining into Minnesota is not high right now.
There is however high agreement in the ENS, GEFS, and GEPS in
PoP during this period of Monday night into Tuesday morning.
What still has a lot of spread are QPF amounts. Overall good
agreement to at least see a repeat of the kind of rain we got on
Saturday morning with totals more so around a quarter inch.
Means and medians are more so around a half inch with the higher
end clustering more around 1 inch. Temepratures on Tuesday
should rise up to around 70 as we remain in the warm sector of
this large system. Rain chances during the day on Tuesday will
generally be low as the primary frontal passage should happen in
the morning. Depending on timing though the rain could persist
into the afternoon in parts of western Wisconsin.

Wednesday through Saturday... Although the best chance for rain
will be Monday night into Tuesday morning the upper low
associated with this will remain over us until the end of the
week. It is not until around late Friday into Saturday that
high pressure moves back in. Still fairly dispersive Wednesday
through Friday with as many solutions as there are ensemble
members. There is however a trend common among all of them, more
rain. It is just the timing of when during this period and how
much that varies. This is why we have a persistent 30 to 50
percent PoP over this period. As for temperatures Wednesday
still looks to stay mostly in the warm sector, but Thursday and
Friday will be on the cooler side with temperatures back down
into the 60s. Overall this continues to look like a good
forecast to continue our drought recovery, but if you are
looking for a prolonged dry period you will have to wait. CPC
outlooks do suggest a trend toward drier conditions for the
following week however.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

There will be some fog/mist for the first hour or two of the TAF in
Wisconsin as the sun comes up. Winds light and variable
increasing to 5 to 10 knots from the south by this afternoon.
VFR at all terminals once the fog ends.

KMSP...There could be some fog in the river valley this morning,
but fog will not impact the airfield. There will be winds from
a crosswind direction early today, but winds will remain light.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON PM...MVFR/-TSRA likely. Wind SE 20G35 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 15G25 kts.
WED...VFR. Chance MVFR/-SHRA. Wind 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC