Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 141023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
523 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.UPDATE...For 12Z Aviation discussion below


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Another quiet short term period is expected. A weak front drops
across the area today. Should still be able to achieve highs in the
low/mid 40s across most of the area, with possibly the exception of
the northwest near Alexandria where the front passes not too long
after daybreak. No precipitation is expected with the frontal
passage, merely cumulus clouds from east central MN across west
central WI. Lows tonight should be within a couple degrees of
normal, ranging from the mid teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

There are two systems to watch through early next week. The first
one will come close to the CWA Friday/Friday night but precipitation
should dissipate before penetrating too much into south central
MN. The system will be rather potent over the central Plains with
a well-developed arc of cold sector precipitation. Mid level
energy will shear out and the surface low will fill quickly late
Friday. This should allow the precipitation to fall apart. Still,
models have some of it reaching southern MN to various degrees before
dissipation occurs. P-type will be the biggest uncertainty with
forecast soundings only showing shallow moisture on the
northeastern periphery of the precip arc, indicating freezing
rain/drizzle. Introduced some of this into the forecast, but it`s
possible things may just end up dry if this moisture depth
decreases. With the dry easterly flow from a high pressure ridge,
this is more likely than not. Kept PoPs in the slight chance-low
chance range.

Another system will track across the central Plains to Ohio Valley
early next week. This one should maintain its integrity a bit
better aloft, but it is still likely to take a suppressed track to
the south with the split flow pattern in place and a strong
subtropical jet.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 523 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

A weak frontal boundary will pass across the area today. No
precipitation is expected, rather mainly a wind shift from
southwest to northwest, then northeast tonight. There will be a
brief (1-2 hour) window this morning (around 13z) with the
potential for borderline low-level wind shear, but will not
include in the TAF due to the short duration and borderline
nature. There is also a small chance for MVFR-level clouds with
the frontal passage but due to low probability/confidence will
keep it as a Few-Sct mention.

There is a slight chance of MVFR-level clouds in the wake of the
frontal boundary. Due to low confidence (limited moisture), only
included a Few mention at this point.

THU...VFR. Wind NE at 05 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind E at 15G20 kts.
SAT...VFR. Slight chance of MVFR. Wind S at 05 kts.




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