Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 261009 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
318 AM MDT Sat May 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Main convective potential
will shift into Idaho today but not nearly as intense as yesterday
in Oregon.  Still, enough instability for thunderstorms with gusty
winds, heavy rain, and small hail.  Upper low that was in California
yesterday will elongate north/south in Nevada today.  Cooler air
will stream in from the northwest today with high temps about 15
degrees lower than yesterday. On Sunday the upper low will extend
from southeast Idaho to southern Utah with showers and thunderstorms
continuing in our Idaho zones while Oregon zones dry out and warm
slightly.  On Monday the low will extend from western Wyoming to
Utah and showers and thunderstorms will continue in our eastern
zones in Idaho.  Sunday should be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today
except in south-central Idaho (including the Magic Valley) which
will be several degrees cooler than today with numerous showers
around.  Today will be breezy from the northwest with speeds 15 to
25 mph.  Sunday looks even windier from the northwest with speeds 20
to 30 mph in the Snake Basin, and 15 to 25 mph elsewhere. Winds
Monday will still be from the northwest but only 10 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday...An active and unsettled
weather pattern will remain in place for much of next week. The
initial area of low pressure will move east of the region Tuesday,
but mid-range models are in good agreement that another trough will
move in starting Wednesday. This second system is forecast to linger
through the remainder of the week. Both troughs will keep moist and
unstable conditions in the forecast, allowing for shower and
thunderstorm development. Timing of the showers is difficult to pin
down at this point.  However, afternoon and evening thunderstorm
activity is the most likely scenario. Temperatures will remain near
normal through the period.


.AVIATION...VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
with storms initially in Oregon and shifting to Idaho by late
afternoon. All terminals stand the chance of seeing thunderstorm
impacts, especially after 21Z. Guidance suggests that storm activity
will wane quickly after 03Z. Surface winds outside of thunderstorms,
WNW 10-20kts. Winds aloft to 10k feet MSL, southerly 15-25kts,
becoming northwesterly after 00Z.

Weekend Outlook...Shower and thunderstorms continue on Sunday
afternoon and evening, with coverage migrating more to SW Idaho for
Sunday, with the Oregon side starting to dry out. Gusty winds of
25-35 kts with thunderstorms.





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