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000
FXUS65 KLKN 191003
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
303 AM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Period of generally fair and warm weather continues
thru the weekend and into early next week. Weather becomes more
active mid week with gusty winds and opportunity for wetting rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night

Generally zonal flow over the forecast area today and Saturday
along with warming temperatures. 10% probability for high
elevation rain and snow showers in and near NE. Nye and White Pine
Counties this afternoon in association with a weak shortwave
embedded in the flow. A stray shower or two may move over the
valleys with virga and breezy downdrafts noted, but no
accumulating rainfall is expected for the valleys with hardly a
wetting rain/snow possible for the high terrain. Generally light
westerly winds across the area will be in place.

PWATs progged in the 0.35” to 0.45” range combine with daytime
heating Saturday afternoon to produce cumulus buildups and maybe a
light shower or two to the high elevations. However,
precipitation probabilities remain below 10%. Virga and breezy
downdrafts are again the favored mode for Saturday afternoon if
any cells grow strong enough given the marginal PWATs and lack of
any notable environmental instability or dynamic lifting
mechanism. Breezier west/southwest winds are expected across NW
Nevada Saturday afternoon with gusts around 20 to 25 mph. Lighter
winds observed farther east and south.

Daytime high temperatures today will be in the 60s with overnight
lows in the low 30s to low 40s. Daytime high temperatures on
Saturday will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s with overnight lows in
the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday

Sunday the deformation zone over central Nevada will fully wash
out by Sunday evening as supportive upper level features move
farther east. Monday into Tuesday morning, models have come in to
much better agreement with the upper pattern, with the GFS and
ECMWF now showing a progressive split flow pattern setup with
quick moving northern, and southern stream upper level shortwave
ridges transiting Nevada, with the northern ridge leading the
southern by about ½ a day in time. However as the ridges move east
of NV they look to amplify in response to an upstream trough
digging south out of the gulf of Alaska and a much weaker southern
stream counterpart. These next systems will begin influence
Nevada, with the northern trough approaching the Pacific NW coast,
and the southern system approaching central CA, Tuesday morning.
Models still a bit unsure given the split flow pattern on how
manage the interaction of the northern and southern stream
systems, for now have keep the forecast basically as is for
Tuesday afternoon through Friday. Precipitation chances will jump
up Tuesday evening through Wednesday, as the first shortwave
passes through, and will be followed by a stronger shortwave
Thursday evening. This first system at this time doesn’t look to
well organized, but models show a 20% of isolated rain showers
Tuesday evening, increasing to 40% by Wednesday morning. After a
brief lull Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning the
stronger of the pair of systems will move into NV Thursday and
Friday with each bringing a 40% to 60% of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with some snow above 8000 ft. Amounts with the first
system look to be on the very light side with up to 0.05” for the
valleys and passes, and up to 0.10” for the mountains. Forecast
snow levels look to be very high with this first system, above
9000 ft, so the precipitation will fall mainly as a light rain. As
for the second system, confidence is two low at this time to
offer exact amounts as the main impacts will occur just outside of
the forecast window. Temperatures and Winds: Spring like
temperatures will continue for the Silver State through Wednesday
of next week as daytime highs range in upper 60s to low 80s. Highs
cool for Thursday and Friday with the upper system overhead, back
into the upper 50s to upper 60s. Overnight lows will follow a
similar trend with lows hovering in the upper 30s to upper 40s
through Wednesday. Lows cool a bit also with the active pattern
with lows in the upper 20 to upper 30s for Thursday and Friday.
Winds will be generally out of the W to NW at speeds of 10 to 20
MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH through the weekend. Winds shift to
more of a W to SW direction Tuesday through Friday as a upper
trough approaches NV, but will remain at similar speeds of 10 to
20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for all terminals over the
next 24 hour period. Winds will be light Friday with typical
diurnal flows at less than 10 knots. A few high level clouds will
be across the area Friday morning. Cumulus and a few showers with
little to no precipitation or virga are expected across White
Pine county including at KELY during the day on Friday. This could
bring brief, gusty winds to KELY between 20Z and 01Z. However,
chance for thunder remains below 10% so VCTS is not expected at
KELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Many streams, creeks, and rivers across northern and
central Nevada continue to observe elevated flows. Mostly dry
conditions are expected thru the weekend and into early next week,
however temperatures will also trend warmer which will help to
accelerate the melting of mid and high elevation snowpack.

The Bruneau River is currently in action stage, but may rise to
minor flood stage in the coming days.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action
stage and expected to slowly recede over the coming days.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and
expected to gradually rise in the coming days, forecast to
reach minor flood stage in the Tuesday timeframe.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City is expected to remain in
minor flood stage over the next several days.

Wildhorse Dam is currently in action stage and is expected to
gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the coming
days.

The Humboldt River at Comus is expected to reach action stage
late tonight or Saturday morning. Additional rises are forecast
with the river reaching near flood stage Monday night.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

92/98/93