Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 190752
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
252 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Upper low responsible for yesterdays snow and cold was over the
lower Great Lakes at 07Z with a surface ridge axis over the plains
region. As the upper low continues to move east skies will clear
over the area early this morning with high pressure building in
from the north. Warmer temperatures will return for the remainder
of the work week and into the weekend as mid level ridge axis
moves into the area in advance of another strong upper low
approaching the southern Rockies.

This system is expected to pull moisture and an increasing chance
of showers and thunderstorms north across the western high plains
on Friday with some chance of showers reaching parts of eastern
Nebraska Friday night. Rain chances are expected to diminish for
the area on Saturday however, as the system tracks southeast out
of Colorado into the southern plains keeping the better chance of
rain to our south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Spring-like conditions may finally be here to stay for a while as
temperatures trend toward more seasonal levels into next week. Dry
weather will start off the period for Sunday and Monday, but a
cold front will move into the area Monday night and Tuesday with
support from an upper trough over the northern plains. This system
will bring a chance of showers to the area but temperatures will
be warm enough to preclude snow this time around. Dry weather
follows behind the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday with
temperatures near seasonal levels.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Sliver of low VFR and higher end MVFR ceilings remain at all three
TAF sites. Ceilings associated with deformation area in the wake
of upper level low moving across northern Illinois at time.
Isentropic fields depicting broad scale subsidence, but clouds
have been slow to dissipate, thus it appears they will remain
entrenched bulk of the night time hours. Where clearing occurs,
radiational cooling will allow for light fog formation, with
the possibility of IFR fog at KOFK due to snowpack. Overall,
confidence in forecast is low, as guidance has not been consistent
and various models are depicing wide range in solutions. As such,
felt a trend toward persistence the best.

Expect clouds and fog to dissipate by mid- to late morning as
upper and lower level ridging builds into the area.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Fortin


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