Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 211023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
315 AM PDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather to
the region through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible for areas north of Interstate 40
today and Tuesday. Temperatures across the region remain a few
degrees below normal through mid week. A warming trend is expected
later in the week.

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday night.

Extensive cloud cover over the forecast area this morning ahead of a
closed upper that that is expected to bring isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms today through Tuesday. The low which is
currently over central California will continue to track south today
with increasing moisture expected across much of the area. This
increase in moisture combined with forcing associated with the low
will result in increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms
today. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop
this morning over mainly Esmeralda, central Nye and northern Inyo
Counties and then spread east by late morning and afternoon across
the remainder of the area as the better forcing shifts east. Think
that the higher terrain will see the best chances of precipitation
today, but there is at least a slight chance for most of the valley
locations. Did increase pops today for the higher terrain of
southern Nevada, southeast California and portions of western Mohave
County. Gusty winds along with small hail will be the primary threat
from any thunderstorms that do develop.

The low will track slowly east tonight with a good chance of seeing
isolated to scattered overnight convection especially in the
northeast quadrant of the low which includes portions of Clark,
Lincoln, and northern Mohave Counties. The low will eventually lift
northeast Wednesday, but there should be enough residual moisture to
continue with at least a slight chance of showers for areas north of
Interstate 40. Temperatures will cool today under the low and remain
a few degrees below normal through Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday.

By Wednesday morning, the low circulation that will be impacting the
region through the short term will be filling and lifting north
taking most of the shower activity with it. I left in low-end
chances of showers over the northwest portions of the CWA. Weak
transient ridging will move across the area Thursday before the next
low begins to impact the area Friday into Memorial Day weekend. At
this time, the main impact from that system appear to be increasing
winds across the region Friday and Saturday, with isolated Advisory-
level winds looking possible. Between the more northerly track of
this system (compared to the current system) and slightly less
moisture, I kept the forecast mostly dry for now, with the only
chances of precipitation limited to the Sierra. This system should
also act to keep temperatures in check and I reduced highs through
much of the period.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Increasing clouds above 10kft are
expected this morning.

Winds will favor a south-southeast direction with sustained winds up
to 10 kts. There may be a few light rain showers around the valley
between by late morning, but 8 am and 11 am Monday morning. the
better chances will be in the afternoon as the threat of isolated
thunderstorms increase. However, they are expected to favor the
higher terrain. Primary concern at the terminal from thunderstorms
will be gusty winds along with varying wind directions.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across
much of the area on today, with the best chances over San
Bernardino, Inyo, Esmeralda, Nye and Central Clark County...however
anticipate scattered precipitation coverage to be more widespread
and farther south than what we have seen the past few days. Winds
are expected to remain below 15 kts, but gusty and erratic winds are
possible near storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating


LONG TERM...Wolcott

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