551
FXUS64 KBMX 200329
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1029 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

The isolated showers affecting eastern areas have finally
dissipated this evening. Not expected any redevelopment overnight.
There were still a few clouds in the east, but mostly areas remain
mostly clear overnight. The current forecast remains on track for
the rest of the night and into Monday. Lows should be in the 60s
in most locations and jump back into the 80s on Monday afternoon.
Patchy fog briefly develop near water bodies around sunrise and
dissipate quickly.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

Today will begin a tranquil period of weather for Central Alabama
and the Southeast, as the main upper shortwave continues to exit off
to the east. Lower clouds and fog are mixing out as of mid morning,
which will set the stage for a warm afternoon as highs top out in
the 80s areawide. Lower 80s can be expected across the east with a
bit more cloud cover closer to the surface low/shortwave in Georgia,
while upper 80s will be observed in the western counties. We still
can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm across the far east, with
lingering moisture rotating around the west side of the low pressure
center near Macon, Georgia. Otherwise, we`ll remain dry through the
afternoon. Mostly clear skies are expected overnight, with some
patchy fog possible in sheltered valleys and near major river
basins. Warm temperatures return once again on Monday but maybe not
quite as warm as previously expected. Easterly flow is expected to
push into Alabama, with a surface ridge centered over the east coast
and Mid-Atlantic states. It won`t be much, but we may be a degree or
two cooler in the east, but near 90 degrees across the west.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

No significant changes to long term forecast. Rain free conditions
expected through Wednesday. A mid level zone of deeper moisture
and lift will set-up from north Texas to Tennessee by Thursday
and into the weekend. Several upper level impulses will track
across this area, with better rain chances across north Alabama.
Temperatures this week will be much above normal with highs in the
middle to upper 80s to around 90.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

Surface high pressure builds southwest down the Appalachians into
Monday. This will keep an east to southeast low level flow over
Central Alabama. There may be some scattered clouds from time to
time around 050 and 250, but ceilings will be limited at best.
Winds will be light and variable to calm overnight and then become
east to southeast around 5kts on Monday.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

20 foot winds will be from the north at 3-5 mph this evening, then
becoming calm. 20 foot winds will become east southeast at 4-6 mph
on Monday. Max RH tonight above 90 percent. Min RH value on Monday
40-45 percent. Next chance for wetting rain on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  86  59  88 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    62  86  61  87 /  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  65  87  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  65  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      65  86  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      64  84  64  84 /  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  65  86  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        64  85  63  86 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...75