712
FXUS64 KBMX 132338
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
638 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

Only made minor changes to the temperature trends and rain chances
through tonight and tomorrow. The main change is reducing rain
chances across the area through the rest of the evening and
adjusting the timing of rain/storms moving in late tonight across
the south. The thunderstorm activity tomorrow may be more
scattered in nature initially, but may become more widespread
across the north during the afternoon.

25/Owen

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024


Overnight tonight, another wave of storms moves through the
southern half of the state. High res models have been consistent
with strongest activity remaining south of Central Alabama and
along the coast where a boundary sets up and lingers. Scattered
moderate showers are possible in areas of I20 and south, with an
isolated thunderstorm possible in the far southern counties.
Little to no instability is present, though PW values will remain
high and shear will be in the 50-60 kt range through the night.
This activity is expected to begin shortly before midnight and
last through much of the morning. Models have been consistent
today with this activity remaining weak, with the storms along the
coast cutting off most of the convection across Central Alabama.
Recent model runs have been trying to hint at isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the northern counties of Central Alabama. Will
have to see how much activity develops across the Gulf to
determine how much coverage could develop across the state
overnight.

There should be a break in coverage through mid morning and early
afternoon, with isolated to scattered convection expected again
through the afternoon and evening, mainly across the northern half
of the state. PW values will be lower with this activity, only
around the 75th percentile for this time of year, and shear will
be slightly lower around 30 to 40 kts. The redeeming factor will
be the instability between 1500 and 2000 J/kg. With these
parameters, can`t rule out strong thunderstorms with a few
possibly becoming severe. Highs Tuesday should remain a few
degrees below normal again in the mid 70s to low 80s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

A few lingering storms Tuesday evening, with drier air overspreading
the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. An upper low tracking southeast
across eastern TN on Wednesday may bring a few showers across the
northeast counties of Alabama. Rain free conditions expected
Wednesday night and Thursday as the upper low pushes off the
Atlantic Coast. Another southern stream impulse will eject out of
the Southwest United States and across the Gulf Coast region
Friday and Saturday. With the slow progression of the upper trof
axis, several impulses will bring periods of heavy rainfall from
Louisiana to Alabama, with a threat of flooding.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

Busy TAF period through the next 24 hours. Many of the sites have
improved to VFR with a few lingering MVFR CIGs hanging around. Our
next round of rain will move up from the south generally after
midnight tonight bringing VCSH and a lowering trend in the CIGs
with many sites dropping to IFR or near IFR. After this wave moves
out during the late morning hours, CIGs should improve slightly. A
few sites may see another drop in CIGs tomorrow afternoon as more
rain/storms move in, but confidence is low with this. Overall,
expect improving trends in CIGs by late afternoon towards the end
of this forecast period.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers with few storms will overspread
Central Alabama later tonight and into Tuesday morning. Rainfall
amounts will be fairly light, generally less than one-quarter of
an inch in most areas. Scattered storms possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening with a chance of showers across the
northeast counties on Wednesday. Max RH tonight near 100 percent
and Min RH on Tuesday 70-75 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  78  60  80 /  50  80  50  20
Anniston    62  78  61  81 /  40  80  50  20
Birmingham  64  79  63  81 /  40  80  30  10
Tuscaloosa  64  81  62  84 /  50  60  20   0
Calera      64  79  62  82 /  50  60  30  10
Auburn      64  77  64  81 /  50  50  50  10
Montgomery  66  81  64  84 /  50  50  30   0
Troy        65  81  64  85 /  60  70  30   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25/Owen
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...25/Owen