Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 241910
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
210 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Late Afternoon Update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
This afternoon and evening.

Deep layer ridging is building to our southeast over the
wiregrass region and into the panhandle of Florida which is
resulting in rising heights that will favor higher temperatures
today across our southern counties. A heat advisory will not be
issued but areas across our southwest and south could have heat
index values approaching 105 degrees at times.

An isolated coverage of showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible through this evening as strong solar insolation will
result in strong low-level instability while relatively drier air
aloft compared to previous days will limit convective development.
Visible satellite imagery continues to show a better cumulus field
compared to yesterday with a few showers detected across our far
southwest counties. The sea breeze is also making progress into
interior southwest Alabama. Expect outflow boundaries from this
activity to help provide low-level convergence to help initiate
some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon
and evening.

The wet microburst risk today is moderate with higher potential
across our northern counties. The modified BMX 24.12Z sounding
yields surface-based convective available potential energy values
near 3700 J/kg with downdraft CAPE values around 1500 J/kg.
Unlike the past 2 days 0-6 km bulk shear values are less than 20
knots and storm-relative helicity values are less than 30 m2/s2
which will discourage convective organization and not support
storm-scale rotation. Convective activity will be more pulse in
nature with more short-lived life cycles.

Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening with a conditional risk for a few strong storms until
later this evening as the lower levels of the atmosphere
gradually cool and stabilize. Lows tonight will be balmy with
readings in the mid 70`s as dew points remain in the lower 70`s
area wide.

05

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Saturday.

Upper-level heights will be rather high for Monday through
Thursday with a ridge across the region, but high dewpoints and
PWAT values will support at least isolated convection each day.
Dewpoints in the mid 70s will combine with temperatures in the low
to mid 90s to produce widespread heat indices in the 100-104F
range. With 105F being the lower end of the criteria for a Heat
Advisory, a low confidence risk of heat indices reaching or
exceeding criteria will be introduced into the HWO for Monday
through Thursday.

Convective activity and rain chances may increase for Friday and
Saturday as a shortwave moves into the Southern Appalachians and
eventually westward across the Deep South. Temperatures should
accordingly trend downward if this scenario occurs.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

A slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible across central AL through the afternoon. With the limited
coverage...and uncertainty in timing...have left mention out of
TAF for now at each site. As SW flow remains overnight...low level
moisture is expected to remain high with fog development possible
through the early morning.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A ridge aloft will develop across the area today, leading to
lower rain chances. Very warm temperatures with triple digit heat
indices will be the biggest issue for crews. Min RHs will remain
elevated, and there are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  92  72  92  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
Anniston    73  92  73  93  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
Birmingham  75  94  74  94  75 /  10  30  10  30  20
Tuscaloosa  74  96  75  96  75 /  10  30  10  30  10
Calera      73  93  73  93  73 /  10  30  10  30  20
Auburn      73  92  74  91  73 /  10  30  20  30  30
Montgomery  74  95  75  94  75 /  10  30  20  40  30
Troy        74  94  74  93  74 /  10  30  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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