Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 070356
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
956 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0955 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2019/
Tonight and Saturday.

At 03:50Z/9:50PM, GOES-East nighttime micro channel showed low
clouds across Central Alabama, alongside areas of cloud breaks.
Surface observations have shown spells of fog resulting in
fluctuating visibility to as low as one-half mile, aided by a
calm wind and rainfall earlier today. Fog has been added to the
grids into Saturday morning. An impulse is soon to exit the
southeastern area of Central Alabama, so ongoing patchy drizzle
should draw to a close overnight over that way.

Low-level moisture remains in place on Saturday, so expect
cloudiness though a few communities could see a peek of sun.

89^GSatterwhite

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0337 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2019/

Made a few updates/tweaks to the extended forecast. Model guidance
has now trended drier Saturday, and removed rain chances. The
inverted trough does remain across the area, and could be the
focus for showers on Sunday. Additionally made a few changes for
model trends mid week to reflect model timing.

14

Previous Long Term Discussion...
/Updated at 0402 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2019/
Sunday through Thursday.

20 percent rain chances expand to cover all of the forecast area
on Sunday.

A large-scale trough is set to take shape across the Plains and
eastern CONUS for Monday through Wednesday. Increasing
southwesterly low-level flow will provide plenty of moisture for
both pre-frontal and post-frontal showers as a front moves slowly
moves through the region. Rain chances will increase from
northwest to southeast across our area beginning Monday afternoon
and should be widespread overnight into Tuesday morning. As the
front advances beyond our forecast area, rain should end Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Colder and dry conditions will move
in behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

/Cloudiness through the period with reduced ceilings taking shape
tonight into Saturday morning/

At 23:50Z/5:50PM, the GOES-East nighttime micro channel showed a
comma head of low clouds atop the region. Related observations
show ceilings vary in the MVFR-VFR range for Central Alabama
terminals, but a trend toward more consistent MVFR is expected
this evening. Overnight and into early-mid Saturday morning, some
terminals have the potential to fall into IFR range. Forecast
soundings indicate a return of mixed MVFR-VFR ceilings heading
through Saturday afternoon. Winds will be very light to calm
tonight, becoming NE/ENE around 5 knots Saturday afternoon. There
may be a spotty sprinkle or light rain shower on Saturday.

89^GSatterwhite


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A few light showers remain possible across the southeast this
evening, otherwise dry conditions are expected tonight. Low clouds
will spread back across the area, with ceiling heights below
1500ft possible. Cloudy conditions continue on Saturday, with a
slight chance of light rain showers again on Sunday. More
widespread rainfall is expected Monday night into Tuesday. There
are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     43  58  47  56  49 /  10   0  10  20  40
Anniston    45  58  47  55  50 /  10  10  10  20  50
Birmingham  46  59  49  57  52 /  10  10  10  20  40
Tuscaloosa  47  60  50  60  54 /  10  10  10  20  20
Calera      46  59  49  57  52 /  10  10  10  20  30
Auburn      48  58  49  55  51 /  10  10  10  20  40
Montgomery  49  60  51  62  55 /  10  10  10  20  30
Troy        50  59  52  62  56 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


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