Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 060842
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
342 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0340 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020/

Through Friday.

Looks like the showers that have been hanging out in the east over
the past few hours, have finally dissipated. Still looking at the
longwave trough axis just to our west. This will once again keep
moisture pumping in the area today and will go with isolated to
scattered coverage across the eastern two thirds of the area, much
like Wednesday afternoon/evening. Will hold onto at least some
isolated showers through Midnight as numerous outflows should help
trigger showers in the east. On Friday the trough axis finally
slides east and we begin to lose some of the moisture influx as dry
air moves in from the north. Look for the best coverage to be in the
east/southeast, with relatively dry weather in the northwest.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0340 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020/

Saturday through Wednesday.

We`ll continue to lose influence of an abating upper-level trough
through the weekend, though a pocket of residual drier air will
stick around through at least Saturday. I didn`t carry a lot of
PoPs as we`ll be on the subsident side of the trough axis and PWs
struggle to climb above 1.4" in most areas. I went a little warm
with highs with low to upper 90s by the afternoon, with the same
for Sunday though we may get a few more convective cells then as
moisture quality should increase a bit (PWs 1.6-1.7"). I did back
off on rain chances for Sunday from previous forecast packages as
moisture return is trending a little slower than previously
thought. By next week, medium range guidance still shows a general
increase in overall moisture as a low amplitude ridge and a few
upper-level `weaknesses` meander across the Southeast, with the
low-level ridge encroaching more westward (this dampens low-level
return flow). Overall, `chance` PoPs with diurnally-driven
convection were the main theme with a slight decreasing trend in
temperatures as afternoon activity appears to increase by mid-week
(PWs are progged to increase to 1.8-2.0"). I removed advertised
`likely` PoPs in the extended due to forecast confidence issues
and the trend toward a slower increase in overall moisture during
this time.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conds thru the period except for isold to sct TSRA in the
afternoon and early evening. A stationary surface boundary was
located along the I-59 corridor. Mostly diurnal convection will
continue along and south of this boundary. Fog too localized to
include at any airport terminal.

58/rose


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Expect afternoon minimum RH values to be generally above 35
percent through Sunday with lower values across the south and
southeast counties where warmer and drier conditions have
persisted. overall warm and dry weather is forecast through this
weekend with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Low-
level moisture will increase by early the next week however,
resulting in minimum RH values only falling into the mid 40
percent range as well as increasing rain chances. Increasing rain
chances are expected into mid next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  69  93  68  95 /  40  20  20   0  10
Anniston    91  70  94  69  95 /  40  20  20   0  10
Birmingham  91  72  94  71  96 /  40  20  10   0  10
Tuscaloosa  92  71  94  71  97 /  20  10  10   0  10
Calera      90  71  92  69  95 /  40  20  10   0  10
Auburn      92  71  92  71  94 /  40  20  30   0  20
Montgomery  94  73  95  72  97 /  30  10  20   0  10
Troy        96  72  95  72  96 /  30  20  20   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


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