Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 072145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
345 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

/Updated at 1135 AM CST Sun Mar 07 2021/
Through Monday.

Very few changes were necessary regarding the short-term forecast
as things are currently on track as we approach midday. The very
dry northeasterly flow at the surface continues to dominate the
pattern over the Southeast. Dew points were currently running in
the 20s with a few upper teens across far eastern counties. The
dry air will allow temps to rise well into the 60s areawide this
afternoon. We`ve had a few gusty winds out there today, but
overall winds haven`t been quite as strong across the area as we
observed yesterday.

We`ll see more radiational cooling once again tonight, with mostly
calm and clear conditions. Much like last night, areas that are
allowed to decouple will see frost or freeze conditions. Our big
warm up will begin on Monday as upper heights will be on the
increase and the surface ridge will be centered off to our east.
Southerly flow at the surface with lingering dry air will allow
the airmass to heat very well, and we`ll stay on the higher end of
guidance in terms of afternoon highs. We`ll likely see an
abundance of lower 70s across much of Central Alabama under mostly
sunny skies.


/Updated at 343 PM CST Sun Mar 07 2021/

No major changes were made to the extended with no mentioned rain
chances through Friday. The dry trend continues with rain pushing
back some. Low rain chances return on Saturday across the north
and west ahead of an approaching frontal system. A warming trend
will continue through Friday. Clouds do return Tuesday into
Wednesday as ridging weakens and onshore flow returns through the
end of the work week.


Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 321 AM CST Sun Mar 07 2021/
Tuesday through Saturday.

Warm and dry weather will continue through much of the upcoming

High pressure will persist across the region Tuesday into
Wednesday, leading to synoptic subsidence and, therefore, rain-
free conditions. The drier air mass that has been in place will
continue to allow for slightly larger diurnal temperature swings
than we typically see - lows in the 40s with highs in the 70s.

The center of the high pressure system will shift eastward
Wednesday into Thursday as a trough digs southward along the
Pacific Coast. This shift in the high will allow for more
southerly flow across our region, leading to a slight increase in
moisture. However, the flow is largely off the Atlantic and never
crosses a significant fetch of the Gulf, so our dewpoints will
likely stay in the 50s through the end of the week.

The trough across the Western CONUS develops into a cut-off low
and progresses eastward very slowly through the end of the week.
Model guidance has not shown much consistency at all with the
timing and evolution of this upper low and trough. Latest
deterministic runs bring in broad ridging in the Gulf of Mexico
Thursday into Friday, which would act to deflect any shortwaves
ejecting from the trough northward, keeping any significant rain
changes north and west of Central AL. With that said, models
continue to try to bring some rain into the area toward the end of
the extended, but with each model run, the timing is pushed back,
so I`ll once again include low chance (15-20%) PoPs for the day 7
period (Saturday) and reduce any rain chances we had for Friday.
I would expect this to change again as models come into better
agreement. Our warmest days will likely be Thursday or Friday with
high temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s.



18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with
clear skies. Northeasterly surface winds around 10 knots with a
few gusts to 15 can be expected this afternoon, diminishing
overnight tonight.




Min RHs through Monday afternoon is forecast to be near or just
below 20%; however, if sufficient mixing occurs or if temperatures
warm even a few degrees above what`s forecast, the RHs could drop
even lower. KBDI`s are below 300 with 20 foot winds 7 mph or
less, so no red flag products are anticipated. Gradual increase in
moisture is expected Tuesday through Friday as we see more of a
southerly flow.


Gadsden     30  69  34  69  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Anniston    32  70  37  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  34  71  40  70  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  35  72  40  71  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      34  71  39  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      35  69  39  69  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  35  72  39  73  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        36  72  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0





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