489
FXUS64 KBMX 180524
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1224 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of Tonight)
Issued at 810 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024

The forecast is in good shape. The shower activity from earlier
today is done, and now we should remain rain free for the
remainder of the 7 day forecast. There are still some lingering
clouds in the NE counties stemming from the low over SC. Those
clouds should decrease in coverage overnight tonight. Some patchy
fog is possible across the NE counties with some boundary layer
moisture. Otherwise, look for winds to be light/variable to near
calm. Latest obs/hires data do not indicate any changes for the
overnight lows and should range from the upper 50s N to the middle
60s S.

08

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024

Plenty of sunshine is ongoing across much of the Deep South today,
with much of the deepest tropical moisture now relegated across
locations near the Gulf Coast. A stalled surface front is located
across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, with scattered
shower activity along and south of the boundary. Meanwhile, the
surface low to our northeast is moving close to the Smoky
Mountains in western North Carolina. We`re seeing an area of
convergence that has developed on the southwestern side of the low
over the northern counties of Central Alabama. We`ve got just
enough lift to produce some shallow shower activity, and agitated
cu is showing up on visible satellite. As a result, we`ve added in
a slight chance of showers north of the I-20 corridor, along with
leaving in a slight chance of showers across the south closest to
the stalled front. Otherwise, most other locations will stay dry
today. Forecast highs are well on track to top out in the mid to
upper 80s areawide.

Overnight tonight, we`ll be watching once again for fog
development that could get locally dense. For now, have added in
patchy fog in many locations and may have to expand coverage of
the fog and lower visibilities based on evening trends. Lows
should be fairly pleasant overnight, ranging from the upper 50s
north to the mid 60s south. With the closed low still spinning off
to our northeast on Wednesday, we should see some extra cloud
cover over our eastern and northeastern counties. We certainly
can`t rule out a shower or two, especially seeing the development
that`s out there this afternoon. For now, we`ve left out PoPs for
the time being, but may need to add in a slight chance by the time
tomorrow morning rolls around. Highs will remain rather warm in
the mid to upper 80s.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024

No major changes to the long-term forecast.

40/Sizemore

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024

Drier northerly flow continues Thursday into Friday as the main
trough axis remains to our east. Then, high pressure builds in with
an amplified ridge aloft Friday through the weekend. This will lead
to continued dry weather through early next week. The upper ridge
begins to break down Sunday into Monday, but the high pressure in
the lower levels persists, which should keep any rain chances well
to our north.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2024

VFR conditions for most of the TAF sites overnight. There could be
some patchy fog at times, especially in the northeast. For the
rest of the period, VFR conditions are expected with generally
light winds before 15z, then northwest winds 5-7 kts in the
afternoon.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Only a few showers are observed across Central Alabama this
afternoon. 20 ft winds remain northwesterly at around 5 mph, and
wills will be northerly to northwesterly tomorrow. Min RHs will
generally be at or above 50% for the next few days, with isolated
spots of 40-50% possible, depending on mixing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  64  88  62 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    84  63  87  64 /  10  10   0   0
Birmingham  85  65  87  66 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  88  65  89  66 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      86  66  88  67 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      86  66  87  67 /  10  10   0   0
Montgomery  89  66  89  68 /  10  10   0   0
Troy        87  65  88  67 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...16