Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 242337
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
637 PM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

An area of showers and storms is moving northward into south
Central Alabama this afternoon, generally along and to the west of
the I-65 corridor, with the potential for a few 30-35 mph wind
gusts. Elsewhere, scattered showers and storms are affecting much
of the area. All activity will move in a northerly direction.

South to southwesterly flow will continue to bring moisture
northward from the Gulf of Mexico tonight, with several impulses
within southwesterly flow aiding in continued shower and storm
development. Several hi-res models indicate a decrease in rain
coverage after sunset. Will trend rain chances downward, but keep
isolated pops in overnight.

14

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Sunday.

High pressure to our east and relative low pressure to our west,
will continue to support a broad area of low-level convergence
on Tuesday. With deep moisture in place, this setup is conducive
for the development of scattered to numerous showers and storms.

The arrival of a cold front should enhance convection and rainfall
amounts in a southwest to northeast corridor on Wednesday and
Thursday. The highest rain chances (70-80 percent) should be
located northwest of I-85 for Wednesday, but some southward
progress is expected for Thursday. Relatively high amounts of
moisture will remain in place on Friday as southwesterly flow
aloft continues, and scattered convection will be triggered by
daytime heating as the stalled front becomes undetectable.

An upper-level ridge may build into the region for the weekend,
but moisture could remain sufficient for isolated to scattered
showers and storms.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Messy situation across much of north-central Alabama here at the
00z timeframe. Showers and thunderstorms are moving through BHM,
ANB, and ASN with light to moderate rain stretching further south
through EET, and MGM. TOI and TCL should be clearing out for the
most part, but can`t rule out an isolated shower or so overnight.
TSRA activity should push out of the area in the next couple of
hours, so have listed as TEMPO instead of prevailing early in
period for ANB and ASN. Light to moderate rain will continue,
possibly bringing 4-5sm VIS at times. Around 9-11z in the morning,
I wouldn`t be surprised to see some isolated BR develop, so have
gone with MVFR VIS for all sites except BHM, which typically
doesn`t see the lower vis. By 15-18z tomorrow, and MVFR CIGs or
VIS should mix out, giving us VFR conditions through the day with
more rain moving in. However, confidence is low in the timing for
any terminal for the rain/storms tomorrow.

25/Owen


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Increased rain chances will continue through much of the week as
south to southwesterly flow brings moisture northward. Morning
patchy fog and/or low clouds will become more likely beginning on
Tuesday morning. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  85  71  80  69 /  60  60  60  80  70
Anniston    71  86  71  83  70 /  60  60  50  80  70
Birmingham  72  86  72  82  70 /  60  60  60  80  70
Tuscaloosa  72  88  73  84  70 /  40  60  60  80  70
Calera      71  86  72  82  69 /  50  60  50  80  70
Auburn      72  86  71  84  70 /  40  50  30  60  60
Montgomery  72  89  73  86  72 /  40  60  40  60  60
Troy        71  88  71  87  70 /  40  50  30  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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