487
FXUS64 KBMX 190001
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
701 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2025

 - Low chance (5-15%) at seeing some large hail and strong winds
   Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night across the western
   half of the Central Alabama.

 - Medium to high (60-80%) chances of a freeze in far northern
   portions of Central Alabama Friday morning, with frost possible
   across the rest of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2025

Quiet weather across the area through tonight. Winds will increase
the rest of the afternoon as we begin to mix out. Not as cold
overnight as southerly winds are providing a little bit extra
moisture into the region. A cold front will move toward the area
tomorrow afternoon. In response winds will increase substantially
across the area with the highest in the north and west through the
afternoon and into the evening hours. A Wind Advisory will likely
be needed later this afternoon for Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of
the front, temperatures will warm up nicely into the upper 70s to
low 80s. As we heat up ahead of the front, rain chances will
increase as well, especially west. Have included high chance PoPs
at this time Wednesday afternoon and higher chances into the
evening hours. As the front moves through there will be just
enough instability to generate a few strong to marginally severe
storms in the western half of the area. Right now the biggest
concerns will be quarter sized hail and damaging winds for the
western half of the area from 2 PM until Midnight.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2025

Overall not much of a change as guidance has come in line with the
previous forecast. Confidence continues to increase on Thursday
night into Friday morning for the freeze/frost across the area.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2025

A very progressive pattern will remain in place through the long
term forecast period. Thursday will be a raw day with breezy
northwest winds and wraparound cloudiness, with very low chances
of wraparound showers or drizzle in the northeast counties. Winds
will die down overnight as a surface high moves directly overhead,
setting up fairly ideal radiational cooling conditions Thursday
night. Went a little below NBM for low temperatures, with a
freeze expected in the typically cooler northern counties, and
fairly widespread frost elsewhere. Temperatures will begin to
rebound on Friday as southwest winds develop ahead of the next
shortwave and surface low moving from the Central Plains to the
Midwest. The associated cold front will move into the area late
Friday night into Saturday, but the system will be moisture
starved. Ensemble guidance indicates only low (20%) rain chances
at most in our northwest late Friday night. The front stalls
across the area on Saturday with temperatures trending warmer
given the westerly winds. Yet another shortwave moves into the
Midwest Sunday in WNW flow aloft. This front will have more
moisture aloft to work with as it moves in Sunday night,
resulting in high (60-80%) rain chances. Low-level moisture return
will be lacking this far east, with only low ensemble
probabilities of dew points reaching 62F in our southwest
counties. Therefore instability and associated severe weather
potential appear low at this time, but will keep an eye on it
given cold temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2025

VFR TAFs are initially expected for this evening with only high
cirrus around. Some non-convective LLWS is possible around sunrise
in the NW half of C AL with an early morning LL jet. Have a
mention from 11-13z at all but MGM. After 13z main LLJ pulls NWD
and surface winds gradually pick up with gusty winds for the
afternoon. TSRA will be moving in the NW counties late afternoon
on Wed ahead of an approaching front, but chances will not be
high enough for a TAF mention until just outside of time frame
during Wed evening.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire danger will be somewhat elevated this afternoon with RH
values dropping below 25 percent for a few hours across the
southeast half of Central Alabama. 20ft winds will be out of the
south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph. RH values will slightly rebound
into Wednesday, especially across the west, but will still drop
into the 25 to 30 percent east. 20 ft winds will increase as well
out of the southwest at 15 to 20 mph with strong gusts as well.
Light to moderate showers and a few stronger storms move through
Wednesday night along a cold front. Min RH values will drop once
more into Thursday and Friday behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     41  78  42  52 /   0  10  90  10
Anniston    43  79  44  52 /   0  10  90  10
Birmingham  49  79  43  53 /   0  10  90  10
Tuscaloosa  50  80  43  56 /   0  20  70   0
Calera      48  80  43  54 /   0  10  90   0
Auburn      44  80  49  56 /   0   0  90  10
Montgomery  45  83  47  60 /   0   0  90   0
Troy        45  83  49  60 /   0   0  80  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for the
following counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Etowah-Fayette-
Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-St. Clair-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16/32/Davis
AVIATION...08