Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 231905
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
205 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Evening Update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

Looking out the window this afternoon, a nice cu field has
developed generally over the eastern and southern counties where
dewpoints are observed in the mid to upper 60s. Northwest counties
are seeing little to no cu developing due to the presence of drier
air and dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The
strengthening ridge just won`t allow any parcels to rise to the
LFC just yet, but an isolated shower or storm remains in the
forecast for eastern and southeastern counties through the rest of
the afternoon. Temperatures are running a little behind for some
locations by a couple of degrees, but low to mid 90s will still be
observed areawide later this afternoon.

Quiet conditions will return overnight tonight, with some patchy
fog possible especially across the southern counties. High-res
guidance is picking up on reduced visibilities pushing northward
overnight across southern Alabama, and additionally along the
major lakes and rivers. We`ll watch observation and guidance
trends through the evening and adjust the forecast if necessary.
For now, we`ve added patchy fog into the forecast for most major
river and lake locations, and all locations along and south of the
U.S. 80/I-85 corridors.

56/GDG

Previous short-term discussion:Through this afternoon.

The high pressure ridge aloft continues to dominate the weather
pattern across the southeast, with 594 decameters measured off the
12z KBMX RAOB this morning. That ridge will only continue to build
as we go later into the weekend, which will be discussed in the
long term discussion below. Meanwhile, a surface ridge centered
just off the Carolina coastline will help to contribute a weak
southeasterly flow at the surface. That southeasterly flow along
with a weak inverted trough identified through surface analysis
could trigger a few isolated showers and storms across roughly the
eastern half of Central Alabama. A few mesoscale boundaries were
also identified on visible satellite and radar this morning that
were moving westward out of southwest Georgia. As always, these
boundaries can help trigger additional convection as well.

That being said, the dominant ridge and abundant dry air aloft
should prevent anything from developing other than isolated
convection, and PoPs have only been slightly modified from what
were advertised earlier. Highs today are also generally unchanged,
with most locations rising into the mid 90s.

56/GDG

.LONG TERM...
/Issued at 300 AM CDT/

Friday through Wednesday.

* Record high temperatures are possible through early next week with
  no widespread rain chances currently expected.

* For specific information on record high temperatures and record
  warm lows for the four Central Alabama climate locations, please
  refer to the Climate section at the bottom.

Trends have been locked in with deep-layer ridging across the
Southeast CONUS in the day 2-7 period for quite some time now. The
effects from this pattern will primarily be the above average
temperatures and lack of any mentionable rain chances into the long-
term. It does appear Central Alabama will likely see many
locations, particularly across the south, approaching the century
mark for afternoon highs by the weekend as the anomalous ridge
approaches ~595 decameters at 500 mb Fri/Sat. Otherwise,
widespread 90s will be the primary theme. Unfortunately the
blocking ridge will keep rain chances well to our northwest during
this time with the only daily chances of rain limited to isolated
shower or thunderstorms that may pop-up. However, with dewpoints
remaining in the low to mid 60s it will be difficult to get
anything going in the afternoon, though this does keep heat
indices from climbing into excessive levels needed for Heat
Advisory criteria. There are some small indications of a reprieve
from hot/dry weather by mid to late next week, but this is too
far out to be reliable. Regardless, those who have outdoor plans
during the next several days, including those who work outside,
should take precautionary action to avoid overexposure and
dehydration.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

The highly amplified ridge over the southeast continues to yield
mostly sunny skies across the area. Inverted troughing was best
distinguishable along southeast central AL through surface
analysis. This region will be most favorable for an isolated
shower or storm this afternoon during peak heating with field of
cumulus already in development, but overall rain chances and
spacial extent will remain low. Therefore, all sites are expected
to remain in VFR conditions through this period, but amendments
will be applied if necessary. Otherwise, visibilities at TCL
briefly dropped to 2 statute miles this morning due to patchy fog,
so made a minor trend toward a similar result for tomorrow
morning. Several days of hot temperatures and dry weather should
begin to limit fog development as surface moisture content
continues decreasing under strengthening high pressure.

86


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry conditions will persist across Central Alabama
through the end of this week, and possibly into mid next week.
There are no fire weather concerns through the end of the work
week as afternoon relative humidity values remain above 35%.
However, as dry conditions persist into the weekend and thereafter,
fire weather concerns could arise in some locations with
afternoon relative humidity values potentially dropping to near
30% due to continued evapotranspiration resultant loss in soil
moisture.

&&

.CLIMATE...

         Record High Maximum Temperatures

             23    24    25    26    27    28    29
Location    THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED

Anniston     94    96    96    95    93    96    94
(1903-2019) 1996  1996  1904  2012  1996  1962  1904

Birmingham   95    96    95    97    98    99    99
(1895-2019) 1996  1996  1962  1962  1962  1962  1898

Montgomery   96    96    96    97    99    97    96
(1872-2019) 1941  1996  1915  1916  1962  1916  1962

Tuscaloosa   94    96    95    95    97    96    96
(1948-2019) 2010  1953  2000  2012  1964  1962  2006

         Record High Minimum Temperatures

             23    24    25    26    27    28    29
Location    THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED

Anniston     71    70    71    71    72    71    72
(1903-2019) 1991  2000  1991  1991  2000  1991  2018

Birmingham   72    73    72    73    73    74    75
(1895-2019) 1998  2000  2004  2006  2006  2012  1905

Montgomery   73    74    76    76    74    75    75
(1872-2019) 1991  1878  1878  1878  1874  1924  1941

Tuscaloosa   73    72    73    74    74    73    73
(1948-2019) 1991  1991  2000  1989  1991  1991  1982

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  94  67  95  66 /  10   0   0   0   0
Anniston    68  94  67  95  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  70  95  71  97  70 /  10   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  69  96  71  97  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      68  93  69  95  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
Auburn      68  94  70  95  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  67  96  71  98  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
Troy        67  96  69  98  71 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


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