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000
FXUS64 KBMX 032015
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
315 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2023

A persistent ridge remains in place over the eastern CONUS where
there`s a notable lack of rainfall. Flow transitions from easterly
in the lower levels to northerly aloft and tropospheric moisture
remains far too low for any kind of diurnal convection. The ridge
will hardly shift eastward through tomorrow, but will maintain its
grasp over the Southeast as soil conditions continue to deteriorate.
Above average highs are expected with readings in the mid to upper
80s while daytime relative humidity will mix into the 30 to 40
percent range. All along the East Coast, smoke from the Canadian
wildfires is rotating southwest around the periphery of the ridge
and producing a slight haze over Central Alabama, but otherwise,
skies are sunny. High clouds will begin to move in from the west
tomorrow afternoon ahead of a trough over the central CONUS.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2023

The previous long term discussion still applies. However, diurnal
swings in the NBM temperatures appear to be underestimated for
Saturday through Tuesday. Highs were raised by 2-4 degrees and
lows were nudged down 1 degree from the NBM numbers. The deeper
mixing may result in lower dewpoints and RH values, contributing
to an enhanced threat for wildfires with ongoing drought
conditions.

87/Grantham

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT TUE OCT 3 2023

/Our first notable autumn chill comes this weekend/

A front is expected to swing across the Gulf States on Friday,
associated with a weak and low-amplitude 500 mb trough. Forecast
soundings indicate moisture content will be stunted due to the
flow pattern leading up to the front`s arrival; thus, shower
activity is expected to be limited in coverage and light in
intensity during the Thursday night/Friday time frame. Increased
cloudiness looks to be more prominent.
08
Surface high pressure will then build toward the region, helping
to nudge cooler air our way. High and low temperatures over the
weekend will be much lower than observed earlier in the week. The
latest forecast has highs averaging in the upper 60s (in the
typically cooler locations) to lower 70s with lows in the 40s.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2023

Deep ridging is in place across the Southeast. VFR conditions will
continue through this TAF period with the dry, stable airmass in
place. There will be light easterly surface winds which will go calm
overnight.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon minimum RH values are forecast to remain above critical
through Friday. The lowest readings (30 to 40 percent) should
occur this afternoon through Thursday. No rain is expected
through Thursday. 20-foot winds remain light and should have an
easterly heading overall though some variability toward the
southeast could occur at times. Greater concerns arise for
Saturday as RH values approach critical values with northwest
winds of 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  86  59  83 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    58  86  60  83 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  61  86  64  83 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  60  88  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      61  87  63  85 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      60  85  61  83 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  59  89  63  86 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        60  88  63  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...86