Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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293
FXUS64 KBMX 210809
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0307 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/
Today and Tonight.

No changes to the weather pattern expected today, as a strong
surface ridge remains centered along the Atlantic Coast. With PW
values below 1 inch and an upper level ridge centered over the
region, conditions remain not only rain free, but with very
little cloud cover this afternoon. Thickness values inch upward
today, with highs a degree or two higher than Friday. Expect mid
80s to lower 90s areawide. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s
to mid 60s.

14

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0307 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/
Sunday through Friday.

Subsidence and dry air associated with a subtropical mid-level
anticyclone overhead will result in continued rain-free conditions
for Sunday. Lingering southeasterly low-level flow will continue to
have a small moderating effect on temperatures, but highs will
remain above average with most areas outside of East Alabama and the
far northern counties reaching 90F. The ridge will flatten on Monday
in response to a mid/upper-level trough moving from the Great Lakes
to New England. This will allow a cold front to sink southward
towards the southern TN border by late afternoon. Continued easterly
flow across the northern Gulf will prevent significant moisture
return, but pooling dew points may reach 70F just ahead of the front
with PWATs near 1.9 inches. Mid/upper-level forcing and moisture
will be very limited, with warm temperatures aloft. Therefore will
keep PoPs on the low end and confined to our northwestern counties
for Monday afternoon/evening. Pre-frontal westerly flow should
result in a continued warming trend.

Quasi-zonal flow will temporarily set up across the area
Tuesday/Wednesday as a deepening trough over central Canada and the
north-central CONUS causes the core of the ridge to temporarily be
suppressed over the Gulf. This will allow the front to continue to
sink southward before stalling somewhere across the area on Tuesday
and then lifting northeastward on Wednesday. The front and
associated moisture axis could serve as a trigger for showers/storms
to develop Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, but at this time
warm/dry mid-level air is expected to keep coverage isolated.
Models/ensembles continue to indicate an amplified pattern setting
up Thursday through next weekend, with a deep trough over the
western CONUS downstream of a blocking ridge over the North Pacific,
and a seasonably anomalous 595-596 decameter ridge setting up over
the southeastern CONUS. This ridge combined with dry soils will
result the potential for record highs towards the end of the
forecast period, with CPC indicating high probabilities of above
average temperatures and below normal precipitation.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period as surface high
pressure remains centered to our east, with little pattern change
expected. Winds will be light or calm overnight, becoming easterly
to southeasterly at 6-8kts by mid morning Saturday. Could see
scattered to broken mid level clouds at 7-8kft overnight, and will
monitor satellite trends to our east. Otherwise, a widely scattered
cu deck is possible Saturday.

14


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and warm conditions continue through the weekend. The next
chance of rain comes Monday, but with only isolated to scattered
coverage across northwestern areas. Afternoon relative humidity
values are expected to remain above 30 percent each afternoon
through the weekend. KBDI values will remain elevated as drought
conditions persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     90  60  90  60  91 /   0   0   0   0  10
Anniston    90  62  90  61  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  90  64  90  65  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  90  65  90  65  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      90  62  90  63  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      87  62  87  64  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  91  64  91  64  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        89  62  90  62  93 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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