Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 231622

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1022 AM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...One more minor update to increase the chance of
thunderstorms in Harney County this afternoon and evening. Latest
models show an area of thunderstorms moving NNE through mainly
southern and eastern Harney County (and into western Malheur
County) through this time period. Updated zone forecasts already
issued. Harney County (Burns BLM Fire District) has been added to
the Red Flag Warning.


.AVIATION...VFR. Scattered thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and
evening before 24/06z. Surface winds southwest to northwest 5-15 kts
except gusts to around 40 kts near thunderstorms. Winds aloft at 10k
feet MSL south to southwest 10-20 kts.


SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...Monsoon moisture from the
south will generate another round of thunderstorms in southern
parts of our forecast area this afternoon and evening.  Storms
may bring wind gusts up to 50 mph.  A cold front late tonight
will shift the monsoon moisture east and out of our CWA
Wednesday leaving us sunnier, drier, and a few degrees cooler.
Clear skies will continue Wednesday night and Thursday, but
monsoon moisture will again begin to surge northward Friday
bringing clouds again to southern areas, with thunderstorms
possible late Friday.  Thursday and Friday will also be several
degrees hotter than Wednesday.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday...After thunderstorms
move out of SW ID Friday evening, conditions through the extended
period remain dry and fairly consistent. High pressure stays over
the Great Basin and flow stays nearly zonal before it turns
southwesterly on Monday. Temperatures through the long-term will
measure in at right around normal under mostly sunny skies.


ID...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight
OR...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ tonight



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