Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 150400
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
900 PM MST Wed Nov 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...A dry northwest flow aloft will continue through
Thursday. Temperatures will remain near normal and winds will be
light. An inversion resulted in little change in high temperatures
in the Treasure Valley today (actually down 2 degrees at the
Boise airport) while it was several degrees warmer in most
locations. The inversion may weaken somewhat late in the week from
a weak cold front, but should restrengthen early next week as
high pressure aloft returns.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Surface winds variable less than 10 kts. Winds
aloft at 10K feet MSL west 15-25 kts decreasing to 10-20 kts after
15/18z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...Northwest flow aloft will
dominate the beginning of the short term forecast as a ridge of
high pressure sits offshore. The next upper level feature begins
dropping in from the north early Friday increasing cloud cover in
the mid to upper levels. Precipitation chances increase by Friday
afternoon for the central Idaho mountains bringing snow showers
for elevations above 5K feet MSL.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday...A short wave moves
over the area Friday under northwest flow aloft, stirring up light
snow showers in the West Central Idaho Mountains into Saturday
morning. Dry northwest flow aloft then continues as temperatures
remain a few degrees above normal into mid-week. Though model
agreement has improved, the GFS and EC disagree over the timing
and strength of an approaching system that could pass over the
region between Wednesday and Thursday. The EC eagerly passes a
cold front through the region Wednesday afternoon while the GFS
progresses another short wave to the north on Thursday. Forecast
confidence remains low, though a blend of both solutions was used
to introduce widespread low PoPs on Wednesday.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...JC
PREV LONG TERM....AL



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