Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 020906

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
306 AM MDT Fri Jun 2 2023

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...A shortwave, clearly
visible on satellite over south central Oregon at 08z, will
continue to move east along the Nevada border today. Light, mostly
virga showers, continue head of the low center across Malhuer
county this morning. Despite the increase in dynamics across the
region, instability remains limited with dry boundary layer across
much of the area. Thus, thunderstorm potential will be limited to
the higher terrain of southwest Idaho this afternoon and evening
(40%-60% chance). Inverted-V profiles with PW values around
normal favors gusty winds with light precipitation from the
stronger storms. Dry northwesterly flow will keep the valleys dry
and stable again today. Upper level low continues east reaching
south- central Idaho on Saturday. This will change the upper level
flow to east-northeast allowing a few showers and thunderstorms
to reach the valley. The boundary layer remains dry so storms are
unlikely to produce much rainfall but the could keep temperatures
colder as rain cooled air in the mountains filters into the lower
valleys. The shortwave finally stalls over Utah/Nevada border on
Sunday bring probably the driest day to the forecast as moisture
will be limited to the central Idaho mountains.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...The weak shortwave finally
lifts north into Montana on Monday, keeping a threat of showers
and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain over the West Central
Mountains of Idaho. Elsewhere will remains dry with temperatures
above normal. A trough over southern California on Monday will
move northward Monday night into Tuesday returning the subtropical
moisture from the south and east. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will increase on Tuesday, mainly during the afternoons through
the remainder of the period across southwest Idaho and southeast
Oregon. precipitable water values increase back to 80-90%
percentile by Friday increase the threat again for heavy rain and
flash flooding into the weekend. Temperatures will be around 10
degrees above normal through the period.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers in Malheur County this
morning, decreasing in coverage by noon. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across central and southwest Idaho this
afternoon and evening. Periods of mountain obscuration in heavier
showers. Surface winds: mainly W-NW 5-15 kt. Gusty outflows up to
40 kt possible near thunderstorms. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL:
variable 5-15 kt.

Weekend Outlook...Generally VFR. Scattered afternoon and evening
showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over central and southwest
Idaho. Heavy rain and gusty winds possible with thunderstorms.
Periods of mountain obscuration in heavier showers.





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