Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 152041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
241 PM MDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...Dry and warmer tonight
through Wednesday with southwest flow aloft. Temperatures about
10 degrees above normal Wednesday, with breezy conditions
developing on Wednesday afternoon, especially across the higher
terrain of Oregon as the next system approaches. That trough
starts to move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a chance
of showers to the Oregon zones on Wednesday night, and into the
Idaho zones early Thursday. This wave is weakening quickly as it
moves across the area, but still enough agreement that there will
be some light precip in most areas, so have raised precip chances
slightly. The bigger story will be the cooling, as the trough
brings in much cooler air, and highs on Thursday will likely be
15-20 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Also breezy northwest winds
will develop behind the front, especially in the afternoon and in
the western Magic Valley.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday...A near zonal flow
spreads across the Pacific Ocean through the extended period. This
allows another weak system to ride across the northern zones
bringing a threat of precipitation. A stronger system is expected to
quickly drop into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through the
day on Saturday. This is the best threat for precipitation. snow
levels are expected to lower to around 4500 feet across the north
and 6000 feet near the Nevada border. Temperatures should drop to
about 10-15 degrees below normal. A weak upper level ridge follows
on Monday which will keep the region mostly dry with temperatures
near normal.

.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear. Surface winds mainly SE around 10
kts. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL SW 15-25 kts.




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