Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 241538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
938 AM MDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...A few stronger wind gusts noted across the area this
morning, but the duration of these winds has been short.
Otherwise, shower activity remains possible today with an area of
low pressure moves along the Pacific coastline. This system
is expected to become an open wave and move across the
Intermountain West late tonight and into Sunday, spreading
additional shower activity along with it. A few rumbles of thunder
may also be possible Sunday afternoon with models continuing to
show decent instability in the afternoon. No changes needed to
forecast this morning.


.AVIATION...Generally VFR with scattered MVFR snow showers this
morning over the central ID mountains. Mountains obscured at times.
Expect partial clearing with scattered MVFR snow showers during the
afternoon. Surface winds west-southwest 10-20kt, becoming light
after sunset, showers may produce gusty erratic winds during the
afternoon. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: Southwest 25-35kt.

Sunday outlook...Generally VFR with scattered MVFR-IFR snow showers
and mountain obscuration at times. Westerly surface winds 5-15kt.


SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...An upper level trough sitting
off the Pacific Coast will begin its slow swing into the region
today, bringing still more precipitation to the region this
weekend. Precipitation will fall as snow across most elevations,
with a mix along the Snake River Plain. Today`s focus of
precipitation will fall across the west central Idaho mountains
and along the Nevada border; however, as the trough axis moves
across the region Sunday, most areas will see a flake or two. With
a cold pool aloft and an unstable environment associated with the
upper level trough axis, a slight chance for afternoon
thunderstorms Sunday cannot be ruled out and has been added to
the forecast. Snow amounts are expected to be around 1 to 3 inches
across most locations below 6000 feet this weekend, except along
the I-84 corridor where little to no accumulation is expected.
Above 6000 feet, total accumulation will generally be 3-5 inches.
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal through the

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Saturday...Northwest flow will
follow the trough as it exits early in the week. This will
continue the chance of showers across the mountains while lower
elevations dry out. The best chance for precipitation comes late
Tue/Wed as a weak trough passes north of the area. Snow levels
will rise from around 3k feet on Monday to around 6k feet by
Wednesday. While moisture in the flow increases for Tue/Wed, lift
is mainly orographic and precipitation amounts will be light.
Models in good agreement on an upper ridge building into the
western US later in the week, bringing drier and warmer conditions
Thur/Fri. Temperatures warm from around 10 degrees below normal
on Monday to 5 degrees above average by Thursday. The weekend
looks cooler and possibly wetter, as energy from the Gulf of
Alaska approaches the Pac NW.





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