Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 260842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
242 AM MDT Sun May 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...A few showers linger this
morning. Unsettled, and potentially active conditions anticipated
today across the area. Models continue to indicate increasing
instability this afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
anticipated. Included mention of small hail with activity this
afternoon; gusty wind will also be a threat. Conditions look to
improve with loss of daylight, but models continue to show a
return of decent instability for Monday afternoon as well.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms anticipated for Memorial Day
afternoon, with activity again anticipated to weaken overnight.
Areas of low pressure over the region will keep the threat of
showers with isolated thunderstorms through at least Wednesday.
Temperatures will begin their warming trend today, with values
reaching within a couple degrees of seasonal values by Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday...Models show an upper
level ridge over western Canada and an upper level trough over the
western U.S. For our area, daytime heating will support development
of daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the
moist unstable air associated with the trough. Temperatures will
average near or slightly above normal.


.AVIATION...Scattered showers will become widespread this afternoon,
with areas of mountain obscuration, local MVFR conditions, and
scattered thunderstorms. Showers will diminish this evening, and
thunderstorms will end by 06z. Surface winds mainly east less than
10 kts, increasing to 10-20 kts after 18z. Gusts of 25-35 kts are
possible near showers and thunderstorms. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL
south 15-25 kts becoming east-southeast 15-25 kts after 18z.





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