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000
FXUS61 KALY 260715
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
315 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the region this morning will
gradually shift east off the New England coast through tonight,
bringing continued dry and cool weather. A warm front
approaching from the west will move across the area and may
bring some showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday night into
Sunday. Warmer temperatures are expected early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM...After a cold start to the day with temperatures
in the 20s and 30s, a large area of high pressure centered over
our region this morning will gradually south/east into southern
New England this afternoon. Subsidence associated with the high
will continue to bring abundant sunshine. With a very dry air
mass still in place (PWAT anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV) and
strong April sun, temperatures will rebound into the 50s to
lower 60s this afternoon. Winds will be light and variable.

With high pressure centered just south/east off the New England
coast tonight, a slight southerly flow will develop tonight,
with some warming aloft as well. So while temperatures will not
be as cold as the previous few nights, it will still be chilly
with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Skies should remain
mostly clear, with just some high level cirrus clouds moving in
towards early Sat morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge axis will move east across the region on
Sat, while surface high pressure remains positioned south/east
of New England. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through
much of the day. A warm front approaching from the west will
bring increasing clouds during the afternoon, and perhaps a few
light showers late in the day for areas west of the Hudson
Valley. Forecast soundings indicate a significant wedge of dry
air in the low levels, so most of any showers aloft should
evaporate. High temperatures are expected warm to normal levels
(lower/mid 60s in valleys) as the air mass continues to
moderate with mostly sunny skies through the morning and at
least partial sunshine into the afternoon. Southerly winds will
increase with gusts of 15-20 mph developing in the afternoon.

The upper ridge axis will to shift east into New England Sat
night, as the surface warm front lifts northeast across the
region Sat night. Along with a possible weak disturbance moving
through, this should result in scattered to numerous showers
developing. Will also mention isolated thunder west of the
Hudson Valley, as some there will be some elevated instability
present above a developing low-level inversion. With the clouds
and showers around, lows will be milder mainly in the 40s.

Milder temperatures are expected on Sunday as the warm front
lifts north of the region and upper level heights start to build
again. However, some guidance has trended cooler as the upper
ridge axis will be positioned to our west and a possible weak
disturbance may spill over the ridge with extra cloud cover and
a few showers possible. Will mention slightly cooler
temperatures compared to the previous forecast, but still
relatively mild with 60s to lower 70s for highs. Confidence in
precip chances is low at this time, but much of the day could
still end up dry.

Upper ridging looks to become better established Sun night,
with solid 500 mb height anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV. As a
strong surface high tracks east into northern Quebec, ridging
extending southward may push a cold front into at least northern
parts of our region. Will monitor trends for possible showers
and cooler temperatures associated with this front, but will
continue to forecast mainly dry conditions and mild temperatures
for now with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Much milder weather is expected through the long term period.
Our region should be in the warm sector Monday. Have favored
the warmer side of the blended guidance for these days, with
valley highs into the 70s on Monday. Some southern areas could
even be reaching into the low 80s by Monday as well. In
addition, a southerly flow will be returning moisture to the
region, so dewpoints will be noticeably higher than the past few
days with values into the 50s. Most of Monday looks dry at this
point, could a few pop up showers can`t be ruled out, mainly
during times of diurnal heating.

A frontal boundary will be getting close to the area for the mid
week. There`s still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing,
but some showers and possible thunderstorms may develop ahead
and along this front between Monday night and Wednesday. Have
gone with chance POPs most of the time, although we do have
some likely POPs on late Tuesday for northwestern areas based on
the latest NBM guidance. Still too early to say if any storms
will be strong at this time, as it will depend on just how much
instability is available and the exact timing of the boundary.
Daytime temps still look mild for Tuesday and Wednesday with
highs in the 60s and 70s and overnight lows will be in the 50s.
It may be drier and slightly cooler by Thursday, but still very
seasonable with daytime temps in the 60s and dewpoints back down
into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...High pressure remains dominant across the
region, making for clear skies. Terminals, therefore, continue
to maintain VFR conditions. Such flight rules will remain status
quo throughout the 06z TAF period with dry conditions and
intermittent light breezes negating the risk of fog formation.

Winds throughout the 06z TAF period will continue to be light
and variable at sustained speeds ranging from about 3-6 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Gant