073
FXUS61 KALY 161745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
145 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers end this evening, with dry weather returning to
the region through Friday as high pressure builds in. Additional
chances for rain showers arrive Friday night into Saturday,
more likely for areas west of the Hudson. Temperatures remain
seasonable through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A vertically-stacked surface and upper low continue to meander
off the New Jersey and Long Island coasts, with rain pivoting
about their northwestern flank into the Berkshires and
Litchfield Hills, as well as adjacent portions of eastern New
York including the Mid-Hudson Valley and Taconics. Overcast
skies in the same areas give way to isolated showers and mostly
cloudy conditions farther from the low in the western Mohawk
Valley and southwestern Adirondacks, where heights aloft have
begun to rise as ridging noses into the region. Afternoon
temperatures remain below normal where rain is ongoing, only
reaching highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, while mid 60s to
low 70s are expected farther north and west.

As the coastal system drifts into the North Atlantic, ridging
will build in to its west, yielding a drying and clearing trend
across the region this evening through tonight. Temperatures
will be seasonable, with early morning lows in the upper 40s in
high terrain to mid 50s at lower elevations. Patchy fog may
develop overnight, particularly in sheltered valleys west of the
Hudson where more widespread clearing is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As the coastal system continues to pull away Friday, weak
ridging glides into the region as high pressure to our south
pushes east. This, pairing with high pressure to our north, will
keep us dry Friday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Skies, though beginning as only partly cloudy, will begin to
increase in the afternoon, however, as an upper-level shortwave
tracks into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Despite this,
primarily dry weather will persist, outside of a stray shower or
two in the Southwest Adirondacks, through the overnight with
low temperatures primarily in the upper 50s with some low 40s in
western New England where clouds will be slower to completely
fill in.

By Saturday morning, the aforementioned shortwave energy will
have tracked through the Great Lakes and continue along a
northeasterly track through New York. A fairly moisture-starved
disturbance, guidance now shows mere isolated showers mainly
north and west of Albany before mid-morning. Weak troughing will
remain across the region throughout the day Saturday with
another shortwave disturbance passing to our south. Some light
showers associated with this perturbation are possible in the
Eastern Catskills and Mid-Hudson Valley, but once again, these
look to be very light and scattered in nature. Any showers that
do cross into our area look to dissipate by Saturday
afternoon/evening with upper ridging building in overtop of the
southerly shortwave. Therefore, Saturday night will once again
see the return of dry conditions. Highs Saturday will be in the
upper 60s to low/mid 70s with lows Saturday night in the upper
40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended forecast has trended drier with above normal
temperatures for eastern NY and western New England into the mid
week based on the latest medium range deterministic and ensemble
guidance. A Rex type block sets up with mid level ridging over
NY and New England on Sunday with a mid and upper level trough
over the the Mid Atlantic States and portions of the Southeast.
Sfc high pressure builds in from the Canadian Maritimes. Partly
to mostly sunny conditions will allow for temps to warm to
seasonal to slightly above normal levels with mid and upper 70s
in many of the valley areas with 60s to lower 70s over the
higher terrain. Some radiational cooling with the ridging will
allow lows to fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Monday into the mid week, the mid and upper level ridge folds in
from the west/southwest over region with above normal heights and
H850 temps.  Max temps trend above normal by close to 10 degrees on
both Monday and Tuesday. High will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s in the lower elevations and upper 60s to mid 70s over the
higher terrain. The sfc anticyclone will be over or near New
England with lows in the 50s with some 40s over the mtns or in
the sheltered valleys.

A cold front and an upper level trough will approach from the west
on Wednesday. Some clouds will increase and a prefrontal sfc trough
may focus some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temps
will still run above normal. The latest CPC Day 8-14 forecast
May 23-29 is calling for near normal temps and slightly above
normal rainfall for eastern NY and western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain from system offshore Long Island is producing MVFR ceilings and
visibilities at KPOU, while just some occasional sprinkles at KALB
and KPSF. Ceilings at KPSF in the MVFR range, while KALB and
KGFL, farther from the offshore storm, are VFR. The storm should
continue tracking farther offshore, so conditions will improve
to VFR at KPSF and KPOU, mainly between midnight and 12Z.
Conditions will remain VFR at KALB and KGFL.

We will have to watch how much any clouds will break up through the
night because if some intervals of breaks in the clouds occur, there
could be some fog but those chances are very low. By 12Z-14Z Just
scattered clouds at KALB and KGFL with scattered variable broken
clouds above 3000 feet at KPOU and KPSF. VFR continues through
Friday morning.

North to east winds at around 10 Kt through this afternoon, with a
few gusts approaching 20 Kt at KPOU and KPSF, maybe a few gusts at
KALB. Winds become light and variable at 6 Kt or less tonight,
continuing through Friday morning, although predominantly north to
east at KPOU and KPSF.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...NAS