914
FXUS65 KBOU 180601
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1201 AM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hard freeze expected across the plains tonight and into Saturday
  morning.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions for the northern
  and northeastern plains Saturday afternoon.

- Dry and warmer weather returns for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Skies have cleared over most of the area and winds are generally
10mph or less, allowing temperatures to decrease to well below
freezing tonight. Temperatures Saturday morning are forecast to
drop into the upper teens to mid 20s across the plains, with
temperatures in the single digits and low teens in the mountains.
Temperatures are expected to warm above freezing around 8AM to
9AM across the plains, increasing into the upper 40s to upper 50s
by the mid afternoon.

The Fire Weather potential for Saturday is a bit uncertain. Models
have strong low to mid level winds on the backside of the trough
as it moves east. The strongest winds look to stay to our east,
but 40mph 700mb winds are forecast to clip our northeastern
counties in the morning to early afternoon, before they move east
with the trough. The surface inversion should limit mixing in the
early morning, but as temperatures warm we could start to see some
of those higher wind speeds mix towards the surface before they
move out of the area. With minimum RHs below 15% for much of the
plains, we could see at least a few hours of critical fire
weather conditions across the NE plains, where the stronger winds
are expected. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for this area
from 1PM to 7PM Saturday.

Temperatures will continue to warm into the middle of next week as an
upper level ridge builds over the area. Highs are forecast to warm
back above normal, with temps reaching into the 70s across the
plains on Sunday and into the 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday. With
the warm and dry conditions, we will have to keep and eye on fire
weather conditions each afternoon during this time period.

On Wednesday, the upper level low which is forecast to sit off the
west coast of the U.S. for much of the forecast leading up to this
point, will start to progress eastward. The exact path of the trough
is still uncertain, but there is potential for it to impact our area
Thursday. Right now, chances are low (<35%) for precip across the
plains on Thursday, but we will have better chances in the
mountains, where moisture is a bit higher. A surface front will
accompany the upper level trough, moving through at some point
Thursday into early Friday. Strength and timing of the front along
with precipitation chances associated with the front will depend
on the evolution of the upper level system. This system does look
like the best chance for precip across the plains for the next 7
days (although is still doesn`t look great with only around half
of the ensemble members bringing precip to the plains during this
time).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF package. Drainage
winds around 5 to 10kts are expected for the next couple of hours
before winds turn more to the west. Winds will be out of the
west/northwest for much of the morning, before winds start to
turn more north/northeast for the afternoon, eventually turning
east, than south by late tomorrow evening. Wind speeds should
generally stay below 15kts at the terminals, with a low chance of
a few gusts around 20kts in the mid to late morning.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT Saturday for COZ038>051.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Saturday for COZ242-244-
248>251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...AP