Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 062142
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
242 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021

Water vapor shows a shortwave trough moving through Idaho and
western Montana with some high level moisture extending across
Colorado. This trough will pass well to the north of Colorado as a
ridge will build back in over Colorado during the day tomorrow.
At the surface, a low pressure system will move across the
Northern Plains with an extremely weak cold front moving across
northeast Colorado tonight. This cold front will have essentially
no impact on our weather besides decreasing wind speeds tomorrow.
Southwesterly flow aloft will keep conditions warmer than normal
tomorrow with highs about the same or slightly warmer than today.
Denver appears to have a good chance to reach 70 degrees for a
high tomorrow which is a couple degrees below the record high of
72. These mild temperatures along with the low moisture values
will mean relative humidity will drop to the low teens across the
plains. The light winds will mean fire danger will lower than
today with no elevated fire danger expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021

For Sunday night and Monday, the high pressure ridge aloft will
shift east of Colorado into the central plains. The flow aloft will
turn southwest while a very weak wave moves through the flow on
Monday. Moisture is very scant with this system so no pops for the
mountains or plains. Temperatures will continue quite warm with
highs in the upper 60s to around 70 as 700mb temperatures climb to
around +3.5C.

On Tuesday, the southwest flow will increase even more as a storm
system gathers just off the northern California coast.  With the stronger
flow, expect high mountain locations will become winder as mountain
top cross barrier flow increases to 45kt late Monday night and
Tuesday. Ahead of the low, a weak embedded system and some
moisture will be increasing over the Great Basin and just inching
into Northwest Colorado Tuesday evening and then across the rest
of the mountains Tuesday overnight. Across the plains on Tuesday
afternoon, appears to be a weak front surge which may drop
temperatures a few degrees. Humidity levels are dropping Tuesday
afternoon and into the teens but given the winds shifting
northeast and overall wind speeds look on the lighter side. Best
chance for any elevated fire danger would be in Lincoln county
where there is still a bit stronger southwest flow there.

Some cooling moves across Colorado on Wednesday behind the wave and
given there is a strong 120kt jet slicing across the state could
be some showers mainly over northern and northwest Colorado. South
of the jet mainly dry and subsident.

Less certainty in the Forecast from Thursday through the weekend as
there is not much consistency in the long range models in handling
the next batch of Pacific energy. The GFS is more progressive in
lifting out the low to near the four corners region on early
Friday while the European solution is quite a bit slower with the
low still over Southern California on Friday morning. For now
will be showing a cooling trend later this week along with a
chance of showers through the period. Best chance of showers will
be over the mountains with lesser chances further east across the
plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 240 PM MST Sat Mar 6 2021

VFR through the TAF period. Southeasterly winds have developed
this afternoon and may flip around to northeasterly later in the
afternoon. Drainage will develop tonight with light winds tomorrow
morning becoming southeasterly to perhaps easterly during the
afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ248>251.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Danielson



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