236
FXUS61 KBTV 110800
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
400 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will develop and move slowly today into
tonight, with northern New York seeing the most numerous
showers. Additional shower activity is expected on Sunday as
weak low pressure crosses the region, with temperatures
trending a bit cooler with more persistent cloudiness. Following
the weekend, chances for rain return but with no signs of
impactful, stormy weather. Temperatures look to remain largely
seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...This weekend will feature unsettled
weather with periodic shower activity. We remain confident
there will be no thunderstorms with these showers as neither
surface heating or cooling aloft will be strong enough to boost
instability enough to get sufficiently cold cloud tops. That
being said, skinny CAPE, even with limited warm cloud depths,
and slow steering flow will lead to some downpours in a classic
hit and miss type of shower regime. The most numerous showers
this afternoon will be in northern New York, with coverage of
showers a bit more limited in the Champlain Valley. East of the
Greens shower chances decrease to near zero due to stable marine
air continuing to drifting in from the southeast. Precipitation
chances on Sunday become more evenly distributed across our
region as the upper low passes to our east with a broad trough
overhead and low level flow becoming more westerly in eastern
Vermont. This pattern also will induce more widespread cloud
cover, keeping temperatures a bit cooler, limiting instability
such that it cancels out the somewhat cooler temperatures aloft.

In total, rainfall amounts will average under 0.25" for most
locations. That being said, some areas will see more rain. While
the official, deterministic forecast shows total rainfall
through the weekend of up to around a half inch in the
northwestern Adirondacks, time-lagged NAM 3km output along with
the HREF probability- matched mean suggests very localized
amounts of near an inch of rain in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 321 AM EDT Saturday...Weak riding mainly in the mid lvls
builds into our region on Sunday night, followed by a warm type
feature on Monday. Weak ridge could provide conditions favorable
for some patchy fog, but feel potential is conditional and
overall probability is <20% attm so have not placed in fcst.
Temps if some clearing can develop could drop into the lower/mid
30s coldest valleys to lower/mid 40s CPV/SLV. For Monday a warm
frnt lifts from sw to ne acrs our cwa with increasing chc for
showers. This boundary becomes stationary acrs our cwa late
Monday into Tues as it parallels the flow aloft with additional
moisture advection. Difficult to pin point exact placement of
boundary and precip given a rather complex mid/upper lvl pattern
with closed cyclonic circulation near Hudson Bay and building
SE CONUS ridge. For now have highest chc pops along the
International Border for Monday into Monday night. Temps with
clouds hold mostly in the 60s on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Saturday...An unsettled pattern prevails into
midweek with increasing probabilities of a widespread wetting
rainfall on Tues into Tue night. Still some guidance
discrepancies on exact placement of heaviest qpf axis
associated with stalled boundary acrs our region. Latest trends
continue to support a split flow with limited phasing btwn
northern and southern stream systems thru mid week. In addition,
have noted the NBM CAPE of 250 J/kg or greater on Tues is <10%
acrs our region, as soundings show a stable/moist adiabatic
profile with limited sfc heating due to clouds/precip. If cwa
can break out in the warm sector some instability is possible
for thunder, but trends are too low attm to mention in fcst.
Have continued with high likely pops on Tues/Tues night, which
can be increased if needed as confidence improves for a
widespread wetting rainfall. Have noted several ensemble members
showing a much more suppressed outcome, resulting in drier
conditions, similar to what unfolded on Friday acrs our cwa.
Temps hold mostly in the upper 50s to upper 60s thru Weds.
Uncertainty increases further for late week, as predictability
in complex mid/upper lvl pattern is low. Latest ECMWF shows
developing ridge over low pres type scenario, with cyclonic
circulation a bit close for comfort to have high confidence in a
dry fcst on Thurs/Friday. Meanwhile, GFS is advertising weak
s/w ridge building into our region on Thurs/Fri with drier
conditions and comfortable temps. For now have trended drier
with near normal temps, given the large spread in guidance.
Bottom line no significant or high impactful weather is
anticipated over the next 5 to 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions will largely prevail
through the TAF period, with the possible exception of
intermittent fog at SLK early this morning. BKN/OVC in the
070-100 range will largely persist with periods of scattering
through the period. Scattered showers will develop with VCSH at
MSS where chances of showers are slightly higher than farther
east, but may see showers expand towards 00Z such that the move
over other sites. Brief MVFR visibilities will be possible
associated with the showers. Winds will continue to be light,
only peaking into the 5 to 10 knot range during the daytime and
primarily out of the south/southeast.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Kutikoff