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000
FXUS61 KBTV 171723
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
123 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another dry and mild day is anticipated today, before light rain
showers and cooler temperatures arrive for tonight into
Thursday. An unsettled and cool pattern will continue into the
upcoming weekend with temperatures mostly in the 50s for highs
and 30s for lows.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 123 PM EDT Wednesday...No significant changes needed to
the forecast for the rest of the day, but based on current
observations did lower max temps a few degrees as we`re
struggling to warm under NNW winds. Dewpoints additionally
aren`t quite as low as previously forecast so slight adjustments
there.

Previous discussion below:
Water vapor and RAP upper air analysis indicates a highly
amplified mid/upper lvl pattern prevails acrs the northern tier
conus. Mid/upper lvl trof is located over eastern Canada, while
weak s/w ridge is overhead, followed by deep closed cyclonic
circulation approaching the western Great Lakes. This complex
upper lvl pattern wl provide challenges to when precip arrives
and areal coverage of precip, especially tonight into Thurs.
Some changes have been observed in the latest data with most
guidance more aggressive with advecting deeper moisture into our
cwa associated with a stronger mid/upper lvl trof. This results
in greater coverage of light precip chances tonight into Thurs,
however timing of when column saturation wl occur given deep
dry layer overhead is challenging. Have mid/upper lvl clouds
advecting into the region after 18z from west to east and based
on very dry air around 850mb, feel some lower dwpts are likely
today, especially VT areas. Have nudged NBM dwpts 50% toward the
10 percentile values to highlight potential for drier air to
mix toward the sfc, especially central/eastern sections. Fcst
area should remain dry today with temps very similar to
yesterday, mid 50s to near 60F. Tonight, NAM/HRRR/RAP and GFS
shows weakening ribbon of precip advecting acrs northern NY and
falling apart in the CPV. Have increased pops to likely for
northern NY and chc for the CPV overnight. QPF values should be
light and generally btwn 0.05 and 0.15 overnight. Additional s/w
energy ejects from mid/upper lvl trof acrs the midwest on Thurs
with more light showers likely for northern NY into VT. Once
again areal coverage is challenging, as some guidance,
especially the ECMWF is mostly dry for VT thru 00z Friday,
holding the ridge firm. Based on consensus and latest trends
have bumped pops by 10 to 20% acrs the board, with greatest
potential for precip over northern NY into parts of central VT.
Thursday should not be a complete washout, but it probably won`t
be dry either. Also, given the thicker clouds and light precip,
have lowered highs back into the upper 30s mtns to upper 40s to
mid 50s warmer valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...A decaying occluded front will move
through the region Thursday night, bringing chances for widespread
precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system will be light,
generally less than 0.25 of an inch. There is a little bit of
uncertainty regarding the frontal as it moves through, as some
guidance shows the system completely falling apart as it moves
eastward while others support it remaining intact as it crosses
through. Regardless, light precipitation can be expect overnight
Thursday into Friday morning, with the greatest confidence across
northern New York. Overnight lows on Thursday will be fairly mild
given abundant cloud cover, with temperatures dropping into the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Behind the front, much of Friday will be dry,
albeit cloudy. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s and low 60s
during the day, aided by southerly flow, before the next frontal
boundary crosses the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...Somewhat unsettled weather will continue
heading into the weekend as as a cold front pushes eastward across
the region Friday night into Saturday, bringing additional chances
for precipitation. Precipitation amounts will be fairly light given
a lack of deep moisture. Behind the frontal boundary, brisk winds
and cooler temperatures are in store for Saturday, with wind gusts
between 20- 35 mph expected. Unsettled weather and additional chances
for precipitation will continue into the weekend as the region
remains under the influence of an upper level trough, although
showers will continue to be light.

As we head into the end of the weekend and early next week, high
pressure looks to build into the region, bringing another period of
mostly dry weather and some sun. Temperatures will be fairly
seasonable, with daytime highs warming into the 50s to low 60s and
overnight lows dropping into the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions will largely prevail
across the region for the next 24 hours with a slowly
approaching front bringing MVFR conditions only into KMSS after
12Z, holding off at all other sites until after 18Z. Otherwise,
mid/high clouds will continue to thicken across the region this
afternoon and lower overnight to 6-10kft by Thursday morning and
to around mountain summit levels through 18Z. Variable winds
this afternoon at 6-8kts will trend southeasterly at all sites
overnight and become gusty up to 25kts Thursday, strongest at
KBTV. Exception will be KMSS where northeasteries will prevail
through the period and gusts will be more persistent in the
18-25kt range.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Taber
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Lahiff