786
FXUS64 KEWX 171727
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1227 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An upper level trough axis stretches from northwest Texas into
northeast Sonora Mexico. A weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft
is seen on satellite upstream of our region, across interior Mexico,
and isolated convection has been noted in the higher terrain of
Mexico. A few HREF members indicate the impulse generating isolated
showers and storms closer to the Rio Grande through the overnight
hours and into south Texas through the morning hours, potentially
also clipping our southeast counties, southeast of San Antonio.

Then, as the final shortwave digs east through the base of the
trough, isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to
develop out of Coahulia Mexico and into the Rio Grande and southern
Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and evening. A few HREF members
also indicate isolated showers and storms developing into the Hill
Country and as far east as the I-35 corridor this evening. A few
storms late this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing
small hail and downbursts producing gusty winds up to 50 mph. Some
isolated showers and storms could linger past sunset, until the
upper level forcing passes east overnight.

Weak upper level ridging is forecast to build over the area on
Saturday, producing dry, mostly sunny, and much warmer temperatures.
High temperatures on Saturday are forecast in the the low to mid 90s
across the Hill Country and along and east of I-35 and I-37, in the
upper 90s along the U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio, and 100 to
104 degrees along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An upper level ridge will slowly move across TX over the weekend and
strengthen during the beginning of next week. The low level flow
will be southeasterly through the end of the period. Hot
temperatures will continue into next week. Highs will be from the
90s to 105 Sunday. The central part of the area may warm a few
degrees more Monday and Tuesday. Record highs may be possible along
the Rio Grande, and we may see our first 100 degree day in the
central part of the CWA. We may need to issue some heat products
early next week. Wednesday the upper ridge will shift toward the
east,and the flow over TX will become west-southwesterly. A
shortwave trough will move through the pattern and may provide enough
lift to generate some showers and thunderstorms across the northern
half of the CWA. Most of the area will stay dry. Temperatures may
drop a couple of degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR flight conditions likely prevail through the period with light
winds. Isolated high-based convection is expected to develop this
afternoon along the Rio Grande and portions of the Edwards Plateau.
Activity could be close enough to KDRT to insert VCTS in this TAF
package from 21Z through 03Z. The high anvil cloud cover from this
activity could stretch east into the I-35 TAF site locations. The
morning may see some slight visibility reductions at the I-35 sites
with light shallow fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              67  93  71  92 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  92  70  91 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  94  70  93 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            66  92  70  91 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           70 104  76 105 /  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        66  91  69  89 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             64  96  70  96 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        64  92  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       66  94  72  93 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           67  95  72  94 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Brady