Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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304 FXUS64 KLUB 101015 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 515 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Easterly surface winds in the wake of a cold front will bring much cooler temperatures today. Highs generally in the low-to-mid 70s will be seen area wide. Higher cloud cover is expected to persist through much of the day as an upper ridge axis moves over the region. The pattern begins to change later this evening as an upper low that has been stalled over southern Nevada for some time will finally start to slowly move eastward. This combined with a moist surface southeasterly flow bringing in Gulf moisture will lead to increased rain chances moving west to east into Saturday morning. Greater chances will occur in the afternoon. This is discussed further in the long term section. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The forecast for this weekend remains on track to be unseasonably cool and wet but finer details are lacking in clarity. The rex block that has been persistent over the western CONUS into the eastern Pacific will continue to break down on Saturday forcing a closed low to slowly move east roughly along the 37th parallel. Large scale lift generally looks lacking on Saturday with the upper low still located around the four-corners region. Lift will primarily be driven by moist isentropic ascent on the 295-305K layers. The latest NAM guidance depicts a short wave approaching the area on Saturday but seems to be suffering from some sort of feedback issue generating much more precipitation than other models. A surface ridge will be nearly centered over the area on Saturday leading to easterly low level winds. Low stratus hanging around for the entire day may lead to temperatures struggling to even push 70 degrees. Warm air advection on Saturday will give rise to elevated instability but is expected to be quite weak with values progged on the order of less than 500 J/kg. Precipitation and convective chances on Sunday look to be increased over Saturday as the upper low approaches closer to the region growing large scale ascent. Stronger jet level winds will move overhead, especially early on Sunday coinciding with peak isentropic lift on Sunday morning. Elevated parcels will gain instability during the overnight hours leading into Sunday morning increasing the chances of thunder within the mostly rain shower activity. Models have been trending increasingly progressive with this upper trough somewhat altering the forecast for Sunday. Therefore, the highest precipitation chances will be off the caprock. A dryline will attempt to mix eastward on Sunday afternoon possibly bringing clearing skies on the caprock. Overall, there is a small chance of flooding rains this weekend with precipitable water values generally in excess of 150 percent of normal. However, confidence in heavy rain is low given the weaker lift expected. A cold front will follow late Sunday into early Monday as the upper trough slides eastward across Oklahoma/Kansas. The next short wave trough will load up in the southwestern US on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing severe weather chances back mid-week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Breezy easterly winds are expected at KLBB and KPVW this afternoon. Light winds will persist otherwise. VFR will continue through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...19