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000
FXUS64 KLUB 221722
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1222 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Sunnier and warmer conditions are on tap for today as northwest
upper-level flow moves over the forecast area. Cyclogenesis in
eastern Colorado will help to boost south-southwest winds across
our forecast area with sustained winds around 20-25 mph with
gusts up to 45 mph. This will help temperatures warm to near
average for this time of year in the mid 70s. Winds will veer to
the southwest overnight as the surface low shifts into the
Oklahoma Panhandle. This will keep temperatures milder than this
morning in the upper 40s to lower 50s. /WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast guidance remains in good agreement regarding the cold front
that is expected to move through the region Tuesday afternoon.
Compressional warming ahead of the front combined with light
downsloping winds will help to boost temperatures even higher on
Tuesday into the mid 80s to lower 90s. Confidence also continues to
increase in at least isolated convection developing east of the I-
27/US-87 corridor along and behind the southward moving front.
Surface based CAPE values around 1500 J/Kg are expected to develop
across this area. While a stout cap will initially be in place this
will be weakened thanks to the warm daytime temperatures so that
when lift from the front arrives a few thunderstorms should be able
to develop. Sufficient deep layer shear would support high based
supercells with large hail and damaging wind gusts as the primary
threats. A fairly straight hodograph also suggests splitting
supercells would be possible with right moving storms dropping due
south while left splits would move off to the northeast.
Isentropic ascent should increase during the overnight hours and
the potential for drizzle or light showers is possible through
Wednesday morning. With northerly surface flow and increased cloud
cover at least in the morning high temperatures on Wednesday will
be cooler in the lower 70s to lower 80s.

Upper-level flow will become more southwesterly Wednesday evening as
an upper-level system moves over southern California. Guidance has
begun to come into better agreement regarding this system. Ahead of
the system, surface winds should become southerly as lee
cyclogenesis occurs by Thursday morning. This will help to transport
Gulf moisture back into the forecast area. A dryline will quickly
sharpen by noon near the TX/NM state line and slowly shift east
to near the I-27/US-87 corridor by the late afternoon. Surface
based CAPE will increase to around 2000 J/Kg ahead of the
dryline as dewpoints climb into the lower 60s. Upper-level lift
will be delayed over the forecast area as the trough axis will
remain over the Four Corners by late Friday afternoon. However as
temperatures warm into the mid 80s combined with lift from the
dryline the cap should be overcome with supercell development once
again favored. The trough axis won`t rotate through our area
until Friday morning hence showers and thunderstorms would remain
possible along and east of the dryline until subsidence increases
behind the trough. Another upper-level system is expected to
quickly dive into southern California Friday night and approach
our area Saturday which could lead to another round of dryline
convection Saturday afternoon. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Gusty south to
southwest winds this afternoon will decrease somewhat with sunset
and veer toward southwest and west before sunrise Tuesday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...07