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000
FXUS64 KLUB 280837
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
337 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A generally quiet weather day is expected today in the wake of the
departing upper level storm system. The core of the upper low will
advance into the Great Lakes region by this afternoon with only some
modest midlevel troughing remaining in place over West Texas. A much
drier airmass will result in plenty of sunshine today with WNW winds
remaining relatively light and high temperatures right near seasonal
normals. This evening, some guidance hints at an increase in
midlevel cloud cover and potential for a few virga showers over
eastern NM and the southern TX Panhandle associated with some weak
residual PVA within a trailing shortwave. This may result in a few
strong gusts late in the evening particularly over the far SW TX
Panhandle, but overall the bulk of this activity should remain to
the north of our forecast area. Outside of any virga activity during
the evening, expect generally light winds overnight with lows near
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A subtle shortwave in the flow aloft Monday morning will bring a
weak lee low over West Texas with brief light northwest surface
winds. However, gradual height rises will give way to the return of
warm downsloping southwesterly surface winds and high temperatures
in the 80s. Zonal flow aloft Tuesday with a lee low across northeast
New Mexico will bring continued downsloping southwesterly surface
winds and temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s. A
potential for a record breaking high temperature for Lubbock on
Tuesday with the current forecast at 92 degrees and the previous
record being 94 degrees (set back in 2013). The dryline will retreat
back into our area Tuesday afternoon with increased low level
moisture. An axis of instability will give way to a slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms to return across the far southeast
Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains. A severe storm cannot be ruled
out at this time given MLCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg and bulk
shear near 30 knots. However, it appears the best chances for storms
may be just east of the forecast area. West of the dryline, breezy
and dry conditions may lead to elevated to critical fire weather
concerns.

The flow aloft will become southwesterly Wednesday with a positively
tilted trough axis digging into the Upper Rockies. A lee cyclone
will deepen across eastern Colorado with the dryline sharpening into
the afternoon hours across the forecast area. Southwesterly surface
winds will once again give way to warm temperatures in the 90s.
Increased storm chances Wednesday afternoon east of the dryline
where MLCAPE values in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg and bulk shear
around 30 knots will support severe storms. The position of the
dryline will determine the area for a better chance of storms, but
current thinking is along and east of the I-27 corridor. Following
Wednesday, there continues to be model discrepancy in the timing,
strength and position of the upper trough axis. The latest 00z model
run of the EC has the trough axis remaining farther north, stronger
and quicker than the GFS. The varying differences in the timing and
strength of the trough axis is the difference between a cold front
pushing south across the forecast area Thursday versus Friday.
Either way, temperatures are expected to be nearly 20 degrees cooler
in the 70s following the frontal boundary, along with the potential
for post frontal showers and storms this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR expected to continue at all sites. A period of strong NW wind
gusts associated with some very high-based virga will continue at
PVW and LBB through the next few hours, with a few gusts near 40
kt possible. Potential for strong wind gusts will decrease
significantly early this morning, with modest NW winds then
expected to continue through the daytime hours on Sunday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...30