Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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718 FXUS66 KMTR 081622 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 922 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024 A warming trend begins Wednesday as offshore winds develop, with a Wind Advisory in effect for the North Bay Interior Mountains until Thursday morning. Warmest temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday before a slight cooldown into the early part of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 922 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024 Temperatures across the greater SF Bay Area are running around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, with more mixed signals across the Central Coast. Meanwhile, gusty winds continue in the North Bay interior mountains. Peak gust reports include a 72 mph gust at the Santa Fe Geothermal PGE station, a 61 mph gust at Mount Saint Helena, a 50 mph gust on Blue Ridge Road South, and a 61 mph gust on Mount Diablo. No changes to the forecast. DialH && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 300 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024 Clear sky conditions continue across the region this morning and offshore winds have developed aloft. This will result in a warming trend today with temperatures reaching the low-to-mid 80`s across the interior while 60`s will be common near the coast (70`s in places such as Santa Cruz). A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the North Bay Interior Mountains with gusts expected to reach 45 mph and may exceed 55 mph in the Mayacamas Mountains through Thursday morning. Gusts in the East Bay Hills are not expected to be widespread enough to warrant an advisory, but Mount Diablo is expected to see similarly strong, gusty winds. Overnight lows will be warmest in the North Bay and interior part of the East Bay given the offshore flow with temperatures only expected to cool into the mid-to-upper 50`s (lower 60`s in the highest peaks). Elsewhere, upper 40`s to mid 50`s are expected overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 300 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024 The warming trend continues into the early part of the upcoming weekend, with Thursday and Friday expected to be the warmest days of the week. High temperatures will range from the upper 60`s to lower 70`s near the coast (lower 80`s in places such as Santa Cruz and downtown San Francisco), to the upper 80`s to lower 90`s inland, especially by Friday. From previous forecaster: "The seasonably warm temperatures are causing a minor to moderate HeatRisk, meaning that a low to moderate risk for heat related illnesses exists for vulnerable populations (children, the elderly, pregnant women, or those without adequate shelter or cooling), with moderate HeatRisk values concentrated in the interior regions of the North, East, and South Bays. With the significant warm up expected for the rest of the week, here`s a reminder of some heat safety tips: * Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool. The heat should start to abate on Sunday as onshore flow returns to the region, but temperatures warmer than the seasonal averages are expected to continue for the foreseeable future, with CPC products stating that temperatures above seasonal averages continue into the third week of May." && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 458 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR through the TAF period. Little change from previous issuance. Strong and gusty offshore winds will strengthen into the afternoon today with sustained speeds generally around 15 knots, and gusts up to about 25 knots. It is not until the late night that winds are expected to ease near the surface. However, winds aloft will remain strong, hence the introduction of LLWS into select TAF sites. Confidence on LLWS development late tonight is moderate. Most recent model guidance has decreased wind speeds aloft, though continues to show at least a 20 knot difference between the surface and 1000- 2000` winds, therefore have kept LLWS in the TAFs for now. This will be something to keep an eye on in future updates. Vicinity of SFO...VFR presides over the TAF period. Current winds are below 10 knots this morning, but are expected to steadily increase through the morning and afternoon to become strong and gusty out of the N. Gusts are likely to near the 25 knot mark this evening. Around midnight, slight wind shear is expected to develop around the terminal as winds aloft turn to become more NE, and surface winds ease slightly. Again, this will be something to watch in future updates. Surface winds become more NE in the early morning of Thursday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. FEW low clouds may crowd the terminal this morning per model guidance and current satellite imagery, though not expecting a CIG to form. Winds are currently light, but will gradually increase through the day to become breezy to moderate out of the N/NW, differing slightly in direction compared to more northern terminals. Winds settle into the late night and turn to become more NE. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 908 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024 High pressure to the north and low pressure to the south will maintain moderate to locally strong northerly winds over the coastal waters and bays through tonight. The stronger northerly winds will result if fresh steep swell today. By Friday, winds are largely light to moderate across much of the waters. Wave heights gradually diminish to around 5 to 7 feet by late week. Dry weather continues through the forecast period as high pressure dominates. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ504. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...AC MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea