Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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444 FXUS66 KMTR 120539 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1039 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 245 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024 Warm temperatures persist through the weekend, with mostly clear skies expected. Stratus will create cloudy conditions for areas near the Bay and coastline. Patchy fog possible near the Monterey Bay and San Mateo coastlines early tomorrow morning. Warm temperatures and low heat risk persist through the upcoming work week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 843 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024 Low clouds remain widespread over the Pacific and are pushing into the Petaluma Gap, through the Golden Gate, across much of San Francisco, and around the entire Monterey Bay region at this hour. Look for cloud cover to continue to spread inland and into the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay, and Salinas valleys overnight. Stratus will gradually retreat back to the coast by mid-to-late morning on Sunday. The forecast remains on track and no updates are anticipated at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024 Its another beautiful May day with warm temperatures in the upper 80s expected throughout most inland areas today (perhaps a few low 90s scattered here and there), with mid to upper 60s expected for highs along the coast through the weekend. Clear skies prevail through much of the forecast period, though coastal stratus and fog will impact much of the coastline overnight as stratus trickles inland. Areas around the Monterey Bay, Salinas Valley, SF Bay, and Sonoma coast are likely to see overcast skies tonight as a result of this stratus, thereby reducing any chances of aurora viewing. Yep, that`s right, you heard that correctly! Another chance for viewing the Aurora Borealis will be possible tonight for areas that remain clear, namely areas further inland away from the coastline or higher in elevation above the fog and stratus if you live in a more coastal zone. However, keep in mind that it is only a chance! Although the ongoing increased solar activity increases our chances of seeing the auroras this far south, it is not by any means a guarantee. So cross your fingers and hope for the best! That being said, how about a few aurora-viewing tips? -Look to the northern horizon. -Go to a very dark area where there is little cloud cover and little light pollution. Ideally, a more rural area away from city lights. -Take a few minutes to sit in the darkness and let your eyes adjust. If the auroras are to be seen, you`ll spot them best after waiting 5- 10 minutes as your eyes will be better attuned to pick up any dim lights, such as the auroras. -If you still cannot see them after letting your eyes adjust, try using a long exposure camera, or a phone camera on the nighttime setting. If your eyes don`t pick it up first, your iPhone (or android) surely will! Although we in this particular office do not predict space weather (just Earth weather!), for further information about what is causing these auroras, we can point you to the right people to answer those questions. For further information about the chances of seeing the Aurora Borealis and the current geomagnetic storm, please take a look at the Space Weather Prediction Center`s social media pages (@NWSSWPC) or visit their web page at spaceweather.gov . && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 245 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024 Warm temperatures continue through much of the upcoming work week, though cool off towards the latter half by a few degrees to reach more seasonable temperatures. Expect high temps to be predominantly in the low to mid 80s for interior regions, with upper 50s and lower 60s along the coast line. Heat Risk is expected to be low for most regions, with only the most sensitive populations at risk for any heat-related illnesses. Nighttime lows will be comfortable in the low to mid 50s for most regions. Current CPC outlook places our region the next 6-10 days leaning slightly above normal for temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024 Currently seeing a mix of VFR-IFR at the terminals as a deeper marine layer of about 1,000 feet is being allowed to protrude further inland. With the exception of LVK, all terminals will experience a reduction in flight category within the TAF period. Widespread VFR and breezy onshore flow will prevail by tomorrow afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy northwesterly flow. Low-end MVFR conditions will return to the terminal overnight with clearing expected by 18Z. Winds will remain breezy out of the west/northwest through the TAF period. MVFR conditions look to make a return again tomorrow night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with northwesterly flow at both terminals. Both terminals will improve to VFR by the afternoon. Winds will remain breezy out of the west/northwest through the TAF period. LIFR/IFR conditions are slated to return to MRY and SNS respectively again tomorrow night. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 1035 PM PDT Sat May 11 2024 Widespread stratus continues across the coastal waters into tomorrow morning. Fair weather and moderate northwesterly winds with the occasional fresh gust continue through the end of the weekend. Gustier conditions will develop across the northern outer waters and along the Big Sur Coast beginning Sunday afternoon. Northwest winds increase to a fresh breeze across all of the coastal waters starting Monday as surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean builds and moves east. As winds strengthen, significant wave heights will build through the early work week reaching heights of 12-15 feet by mid-week before beginning to diminish Thursday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 719 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024 Long period southwest swell will lead to slightly elevated chances for sneaker wave and rip current development this weekend. Conditions are expected to stay below Beach Hazards Statement criteria as swell height will only be between 1-2 feet. However, in light of anomalously warm temperatures and increased likelihood of people traveling to the coast, visitors to the beach should remember to take safety precautions to prevent being caught by an unexpected large wave and to never turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 9 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM....AC AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea