Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 231457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
957 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

A weakening frontal boundary will slowly lift north through the
area as a warm front today. The next cold front crosses the
area late Sunday.


The current surface analysis places a warm front over NC with
strong high pressure centered over New England. Widespread
stratus covers the region this morning with temperatures
ranging through the 40s to around 50F over coastal NE NC. The
front will slowly try to slide north through the area today,
with patchy -DZ north of the front. Also included a low-end
chance of -RA over northern areas though pcpn should mainly be
in the form of -DZ. Partial clearing expected over far srn areas
later this aftn as the front slides north, also allowing temps
to rebound a bit into the low 60s there late in the day.
Elsewhere, temps expected to max out in the 50s (only low 50s
far N).


All of the FA enters the warm sector tonight. Not much support
for pcpn but fog will be a good bet, especially after midnight.
Lows near 50 north, in the mid/upr 50s south.

Offshore ridge builds back into the area Sat. Moisture slowly incrs
with the best support for pcpn across the nw Sat aftn and eve.
Otw, pt sunny to mstly cldy and warmer. Highs in the mid 60s
ern shore with the 70s west of the bay. Lows Sat night in the
mid 50s-lwr 60s.

The next cold front approaches from the west Sun morning with the
fropa in the aftn/eve. Models depict a decent feed of moisture
across the mts but it weakens as it moves east into the
Piedmont. Daytime PoPs range from near 30% SE to 50-60% NW.
Highs in the 70s most areas.


No major changes expected the the day 4-7 forecast. Still expecting
a cold frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. The front will be
slowing down as it approaches the area as it becomes nearly parallel
to the upper flow aloft. As such, will need to maintain chance pops
Sun night into Monday for all locations. Am expecting everyone to
see some light rain at some point, and guidance pointed to likely
pops both Sun Night into Monday. However, given that the rain will
be light and not continuous, we opted to just include chance of rain
showers for that period. Once the front moves south of the area, dry
Canadian high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic by
Tuesday, then offshore Wed. The next chance for showers will be
Thursday as the guidance suggests strong warm advection ahead of a
deepening Mississippi Valley low pressure system.

Despite the cool down from this week, temperatures will still be
above normal with temperatures in the upper 50-mid 60s and lows in
the upper 30s/mid 40s.


Widespread IFR/LIFR to start off the 12Z TAF period as a
backdoor cold front is now south of the area. Low cigs/vsbys
will continue this morning, before some improvement from south
to north later today (to at least MVFR) as the front retreats
back N as warm front this afternoon/eve. Aviation conditions
expected to once again deteriorate tonight. Region back into the
warm sector tonight- Sun (though there may be SCT SHRAs). The
next front will cross the area late Sun...w/ another period of
CIG/VSBY restrictions possible during that period.


Back door cold front has settled south of the region early this
morning, with NNE winds prevailing in its wake. SCA headlines
remain in effect for the entire Ocean through 18-21Z where seas
avg 6-8 ft north and 4-6 ft south. SCA for the mouth of the Bay
for waves to 3-4 ft, elsewhere for the Bay/Rivers/Sound, NNE
winds avg 10-15 kt with waves of 2-3 ft in the Bay and genly 1-2
ft for the Rivers and Sound and these winds will slowly
diminish through the late morning. SCA headlines in effect
through 21Z/4pm for far northern coastal waters where NE winds
remain elevated through midday and seas will be slow to subside
to below 5 ft, tapered to 18Z farther south.

Otherwise, the front begins to lift back N as a warm front later
today through tonight. Rather weak pressure gradient as this
occurs so winds will be on the light side (mainly 5-10 kt) later
today and tonight as they shift from the NE to the SE and
eventually to the SSW. SW flow increases on Sat but should stay
below SCA criteria. By Saturday night into Sunday, SSW winds
may increase enough for marginal small craft conditions with
gusts to ~20 kt over much of the marine area. This cold front
will pass through the waters on Monday with N to NE winds then
shifting to the N/NW by Tue as Canadian high pressure builds
into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley regions. At this time, not much
cold air associated with this frontal passage so winds/seas look
to genly stay below SCA thresholds.


Record highs were set Thu 2/22 at Richmond, Norfolk, and
Elizabeth City. Record high mins were not set as temperatures
plummeted behind the passage of the cold front, falling into the

* Date: Thu 2/22
* Site: Actual High...Previous Record High

* RIC:  75 F......... 73 (1985)
* ORF:  79 F..........77 (1937)
* ECG:  79 F..........77 (2003)

Very warm temperatures will return over the weekend, record
highs are listed for Sat 2/24 and Sun 2/25.

* Record Highs
* Site: Sat 2/24......Sun 2/25

* RIC:  82 (1985)     83 (1930)
* ORF:  82 (2012)     81 (2017)
* SBY:  77 (2012)     80 (1930)
* ECG:  79 (1985)     78 (2017)


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ634-
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650.


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