Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 240811
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
411 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest later today, then
drops across the area this evening into early Monday morning.
High pressure will build in from the north Monday afternoon into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 405 AM EDT Sunday...

Very warm and still rather humid today, as winds will become
more WSW in advance of an actual cold front approaching fm the
NW. Partly to mostly sunny with highs generally 90-95F. Dewpts
should remain in the mid 70s during peak heating for NE NC
adjacent to the Albemarle Sound. This will result in heat
indices of 104-108F, so a heat advisory will remain in effect
for these counties. It could be close in far SE VA as well, so
the heat advisory may need to be expanded. Isolated to sctd
showers/tstms (20-40%) are possible later this aftn/evening,
with a lingering chc of showers into early Mon morning over
extrm SE VA and NE NC until the front moves south of the area.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 405 AM EDT Sunday...

Mon will be dry for most of the area and slightly less humid,
as high pressure starts to build in fm the north. Isolated to
sctd (20-30%) sea-breeze convection is possible in NE NC. Highs
will mainly be in the mid to upper 80s.

High pressure is forecast to build down into the region and
settle off the nrn Mid Atlc coast Mon night thru Tue, resulting
in pleasant and dry conditions. Lows Mon night will range thru
the 60s to around 70F far SE, followed by highs on Tue in the
lower to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 415 PM EDT Saturday...

The big story in the extended will be the warming trend as a
strong and anomalous ridge centers itself over the NE states
through the end of next week. After temperatures close to normal
on Wednesday and Thursday with an upper trough moving through,
expect temps to rise into the middle 90s Friday and Saturday in
response to the 595+ DM high centered over New England. Other
than the chance of showers and storms Wed night into Thursday
with the frontal passage, expect mainly diurnally driven
afternoon/evening pop up thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Will
need to maintain chance pops each day Fri/Sat to account for
these storms, but it certainly does not look like widespread
rainfall these days.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

Early this morning, radar indicated no pcpn acrs the area. A
cold front will approach fm the NW later today, then drop acrs
the region this evening into early Mon morning. Expect SW then
WSW winds arnd 10 kt or less later this morning into this
evening in advance of the front. Isolated to sctd aftn/evening
showers and tstms will be possible again, as the front
approaches and pushes thru the area. Except for isolated IFR CIG
at SBY early this morning, expect mainly VFR conditions today
into Mon morning. The front will be south of the region during
Mon. Mainly dry with a northerly wind. However, there is a
slight chc of aftn sea-breeze showers/tstms at ECG. High pressure
and drier air prevail Mon night into Tue. High pressure moves
offshore by Wed and Thu, with a chc of aftn/evening showers/tstms
by Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

No flags with this forecast package. SW winds today aob 15 kts ahead
of a cold front that crosses the waters tonight, then settles across
the Carolinas Mon as high pressure builds in from the north.

Winds become NNE Mon but remain below 20 kts due to the lack of any
significant CAA. The high moves farther offshore Tue/Wed with winds
becoming ESE, then S later in the week. Seas 2-4 ft, waves 1-2 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued a flood warning for the Mattaponi River at Bowling Green
based off the latest gauge readings this morning.

A flood warning remains is in effect for the North Anna and upper
Pamunkey Rivers due to the combination of the heavy rainfall and
increased dam releases at Lake Anna. The increased dam releases
have been terminated, but it will still take some time for the
water to flow through the basin.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ015>017-031-032-102.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ


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