Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 110549
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1249 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the Gulf coast region through Monday
night, as low pressure moves through the northern tier of the
nation. A more prominent low pressure system will move from the
Great Lakes into New England Tuesday through Tuesday night,
pushing a strong cold front through the local area. Expect markedly
colder temperatures for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The current surface analysis indicates a large area of high
pressure (~1030 mb)centered from south Texas to the Gulf coast
states. Low pressure genly prevails north of the eastern Great
Lakes. A shortwave aloft is diving ESE from the midwest and is
bringing mainly mid level clouds to the northern 1/2 of the CWA.
These clouds and some low level mixing (albeit weak) will tend
to keep tonight`s lows from being as cold as they otherwise
would be if sfc high pressure were centered over the area.
Partly-mostly cloudy north and partly cloudy to mostly clear
south. Still did undercut MOS by a few degrees in snow covered
areas, with lows mainly ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Skies again turn mainly sunny behind the departing shortwave for
Mon and it will become a little milder with highs into the mid-
upper 40s most areas (lower 50s SE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Partly to mostly cloudy Mon night and with a southerly flow,
should be a little warmer with lows 30-35 F. Enough SW flow on
Tue for highs into the mid-upper 50s SE to the upper 40s NW.
Turning blustery and dry late in the day from NW to SE.

Front pushes SE of the local area Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning. Temperatures tumble into the 20s/30s Tuesday
night, with early morning lows in the teens NW to 20s elsewhere
Wednesday morning. Brisk NW winds will quickly knock wind chills
down into the 10-20 F range Wed morning. Even with mainly sunny
skies Wed, highs will struggle to get above the lower 30s N and
mid 30s S...with wind chills remaining in the 20s or colder.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A progressive WNW flow pattern is expected late this
week through next weekend featuring a series of nrn stream moisture-
starved clipper systems. The first wave pushes through during the
Wednesday night/Thursday timeframe. The 10/12z ECMWF is about 12hrs
quicker than the GFS, but regardless PoPs are less than 15% with
limited moisture and downslope flow. Another wave quickly follows
Friday. The GFS is more nrn stream dominated while the ECMWF pushes
a srn stream wave off the Southeast coast. Again, there is little
support for pcpn locally, so forecast PoPs are less than 15%.
Shortwave ridging prevails Saturday with another quick moving trough
pushing through the region Sunday. High temperatures Thursday-
Saturday will generally be in the 40s to around 50F SE, then low/mid
50s by Sunday as the aforementioned trough will provide mixing with
limited CAA. Low temperatures will primarily be in the 20s for much
of the area to low 30s SE later this week, and then rise to the
upper 20s/mid 30s (upper 30s/around 40F far SE) by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 06z TAF period. SCT/BKN mid
to high level clouds will push across northern sections of the
area during the overnight, clearing towards morning. Winds will
be 10 kt or less from the SW-W tonight and Monday.

Outlook: Expect VFR conditions to prevail for the most part
through the week, though winds are expected to become strong and
gusty later Tue and Tue night into Wed with the passage of a
strong cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Ended the SCA hazards over the ocean with this forecast package as
seas have dropped below 5 ft. Sfc high pressure builds over the SE
states tonight, and with a slight increase in the pressure gradient,
have hoisted a marginal SCA for the Bay for a short period of 15-20
kt winds. Sub-sca conditions then into the day Mon as a clipper
system approaches the OH Valley. This system will drag a strong cold
front through the waters on Tue, with SCA conditions expected over
much of the marine area lasting from Tue through Wed. Low-end gales
are psbl by Tue night, esply over the coastal wtrs.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM/JEF
MARINE...MAS



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